2026 NFL Playoff Predictions & Super Bowl LXI

The Los Angeles Rams remain a leading Super Bowl LXI contender, but their 2-2 start has made the preseason championship case less straightforward. The Buffalo Bills are 3-1, while the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers have reached 4-0.

The biggest changes affect the division predictions. The Los Angeles Chargers are winless and four games behind Kansas City. The Green Bay Packers are 2-2, two games behind Minnesota. Both were featured preseason futures recommendations, and neither deserves the same confidence after four weeks.

This assessment separates the early-season results from the original preseason projections. The broader NFL coverage provides the league context; the championship question is whether the teams favored before the season still have a credible path through January.

Super Bowl contenders after Week 4

The table below retains the original October 8 market snapshot and records through Week 4. The listed prices describe that supplied snapshot rather than a newly verified comparison of every US sportsbook.

The final column converts the listed best price into a break-even probability. It is not an independently modeled championship forecast or a margin-adjusted estimate. The bookmaker margin cannot be removed reliably from this partial field alone.

Biggest changes from the preseason outlook

The original comparison shows how the supplied October snapshot differs from the preseason prices.

San Francisco and Kansas City have improved their positions through unbeaten starts. Minnesota also requires more attention than the original projection gave it: the Vikings were outside the preseason playoff field and now lead the NFC North.

The Rams present a more complicated picture. Matthew Stafford has thrown six touchdowns and six interceptions through four games, and Los Angeles has a minus-5 turnover differential. Those mistakes help explain why substantial offensive production has not produced a stronger record.

Garrett's knee surgery adds a separate concern. The Rams placed him on injured reserve in September, ruling him out for at least four games. A championship argument built partly on an upgraded pass rush must account for his absence rather than assume the full preseason roster is available.

Playoff picture after Week 4

The NFL standings show the following division leaders by record. Shared entries indicate equal records, not an official tiebreaker ruling.

Kansas City, Minnesota and San Francisco are the three unbeaten teams. Miami, Houston, Tennessee, the Chargers and Tampa Bay are winless.

Only the No. 1 seed in each conference receives a first-round bye. Early wins matter because they reduce the amount of ground a contender must recover to secure that advantage, although four games are not enough to settle a seeding race.

Preseason futures recommendations: where they stand

The table preserves the original position labels. “Price taken” and “Not bet” describe how the supplied draft tracked its selections; they are not independently verified transaction records.

The two division selections have weakened. Buffalo remains competitive, but its conference-favorite status varies by sportsbook. The table's shorter Bills price does not, on its own, prove the original selection was profitable or correctly valued.

The Rams' original betting interest was conditional on the football outlook remaining intact. Their turnovers and Garrett's absence mean that condition cannot simply be carried forward. A change in the available return would not, by itself, justify a new recommendation.

Division and conference futures can be decided before or during the postseason. The championship outcome remains unresolved until Super Bowl LXI.

Original preseason predictions

Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The original projection favored the Rams over Buffalo, with the Chargers and Packers identified as the preferred division futures candidates.

How the 2026-27 NFL playoffs shape the Super Bowl race

Fourteen teams qualify for the playoffs, seven from each conference. Four division champions occupy the first four seeds, and three wild-card teams complete each conference's field.

The top seed needs two conference playoff victories to reach the Super Bowl; every other qualifier needs three. That difference makes seeding a meaningful part of the championship assessment.

The Rams' preseason championship case

The following table preserves the supplied August 11 preseason board. These are historical prices, not currently available offers.

Los Angeles was the original projected champion because the analysis favored its combination of Stafford's passing ability, offensive personnel and defensive potential. The central question was whether that roster could remain healthy and consistent through a difficult NFC West race.

Original 2026-27 NFL playoff predictions

The largest early discrepancies are the Chargers, Texans and Buccaneers, all 0-4, alongside the omission of unbeaten Minnesota. Kansas City and San Francisco were projected as wild cards but have started with their divisions' best records.

AFC predictions

Baltimore Ravens: original No. 1 seed

The preseason case centered on Lamar Jackson's offensive ceiling and a defense being reshaped under first-year head coach Jesse Minter. Trey Hendrickson's addition offered a potential improvement in the pass rush.

At 3-1, Baltimore remains in the conference race. Sharing the division's best record with Cleveland means the Ravens still have to establish separation before the original top-seed projection becomes convincing.

Buffalo Bills: original No. 2 seed and AFC champion

Buffalo's projected conference title rested on Josh Allen's ability to extend plays and create offense when a defense disrupts the initial design. Joe Brady's promotion from offensive coordinator to head coach preserved familiarity around the quarterback while introducing a new leadership arrangement.

The Bills' 3-1 start keeps that projection plausible. The main limitation is the depth of the conference: a credible Buffalo case does not eliminate Kansas City, Baltimore or other challengers.

Los Angeles Chargers: original No. 3 seed

The original Chargers outlook depended on improved protection for Justin Herbert, including the anticipated return of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt after injury-disrupted seasons.

That was a conditional argument about offensive-line health and performance. At 0-4, Los Angeles has not converted it into results. The division deficit makes the original AFC West recommendation substantially harder to defend.

Houston Texans: original No. 4 seed

Houston's preseason division case paired confidence in the defense with expectations of a better offensive environment for C.J. Stroud.

The Texans' 0-4 start has undermined that projection. Jacksonville leads the South at 3-1, so Houston must recover ground before a division-title argument can regain credibility.

Original AFC wild cards: Denver, Kansas City and New England

Denver and New England are both 2-2, leaving their postseason cases open. Neither has created the early cushion that would make a wild-card projection secure.

Kansas City's 4-0 start is the strongest development among these three teams. The Chiefs now have a better division position than the preseason bracket anticipated, while the 3-1 Raiders add competition that the original field did not include.

NFC predictions

Los Angeles Rams: original No. 1 seed and NFC champion

The original Rams projection favored their offensive ceiling and the potential of the defense. It remains a plausible championship scenario, but the route to the NFC's top seed has become more difficult.

Los Angeles trails San Francisco by two games and Seattle by one. Stafford's ball security and Garrett's eventual availability are central to whether the Rams can recover that ground.

Philadelphia Eagles: original No. 2 seed

Philadelphia's preseason projection relied on the roster's ability to sustain a division-winning level of play. At 2-2, the Eagles remain close to the NFC East lead, but the 3-1 Giants have the better record.

Green Bay Packers: original No. 3 seed

The Packers' division outlook already included uncertainty around Micah Parsons' recovery from knee surgery. His preseason discussion of a possible October return was not confirmation of a return date.

Green Bay is now chasing Minnesota and Chicago. The original recommendation needs to account for both the early deficit and the defense's actual availability, rather than treating rehabilitation progress as guaranteed improvement.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: original No. 4 seed

Tampa Bay was the lowest-confidence division winner in the original field. At 0-4, the Buccaneers trail Atlanta and Carolina by two games.

A division without an unbeaten leader leaves room for movement, but Tampa Bay first needs results that support a recovery. The preseason selection should not be presented as the current preferred outcome.

Original NFC wild cards: Seattle, San Francisco and Detroit

Seattle's 3-1 start keeps the Seahawks in the NFC West race. San Francisco's 4-0 record has strengthened its position beyond the original wild-card projection.

Detroit is 2-2 and trails both Minnesota and Chicago. The preseason Lions outlook included disruption at center after Cade Mays suffered a wrist injury. That historical concern should remain distinct from any current availability assessment.

Original projected NFL playoff bracket

The matchups below follow the original seeds and the NFL's reseeding format. They are hypothetical results, not scheduled games.

Preseason futures selections under review

The original preseason recommendations and prices are retained below for comparison with the early-season assessment.

Chargers to win the AFC West

Improved protection was the core preseason argument. The 0-4 start and four-game deficit now outweigh that unfulfilled expectation. The original selection remains part of the record, but it is not a renewed best bet.

Packers to win the NFC North

Green Bay's case depended on quarterback stability and enough defensive improvement to compete across a crowded division. Minnesota's unbeaten start and Chicago's 3-1 record have made the path more demanding.

Buffalo to win the AFC

Buffalo remains the most credible of the original featured selections after four games. Allen provides the central football argument, while the 3-1 record keeps the Bills in a workable position. Conference competition remains the principal risk.

Rams to win Super Bowl LXI

The original championship prediction survives as a possibility, but the conditions supporting a wager have changed. Turnovers, the division deficit and Garrett's absence prevent an automatic endorsement based on the preseason view.

Contenders worth closer attention

San Francisco has moved beyond a speculative challenger with its 4-0 start. Minnesota also deserves a place in the discussion because its early wins directly challenge the original Green Bay division projection.

Detroit remains a potential playoff contender, but its 2-2 record leaves work to do. A credible assessment must distinguish offensive potential from the results needed to secure a postseason place.

Championship selections without a fresh recommendation

Seattle's 3-1 record supports continued contender status, even though the original article did not recommend a championship wager. Baltimore also remains credible at 3-1 without needing to be declared the strongest Super Bowl selection.

Houston's winless start requires greater caution. The preseason defensive argument is not enough on its own to sustain a championship recommendation after four losses.

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What could change the outlook

Quarterback performance, offensive-line availability and defensive health remain the main variables. For the Rams, better ball security and Garrett's recovery would address specific concerns. For the Chargers, the relevant question is whether protection and results improve enough to support a meaningful recovery.

Division games will also change the standings more directly than general impressions of roster strength. The weekly NFL picks and predictions address individual matchups; this season outlook evaluates the longer path to the playoffs and championship.

Super Bowl LXI prediction after four weeks

The original projection was Los Angeles Rams over Buffalo Bills, 27-24. That score remains a preseason forecast, not a newly calculated prediction.

Buffalo's start keeps its conference case credible. The Rams remain a plausible champion, but their turnovers and defensive availability reduce confidence. Kansas City and San Francisco have strengthened their positions, while Minnesota has exposed a major omission in the original playoff field.

The clearest reassessment concerns the division selections. The Chargers and Packers should not retain their preseason recommendation labels without accounting for the ground they now have to recover. Four weeks have not settled the championship, but they have changed which assumptions still deserve confidence.