2026 NFL Awards Predictions, Best Bets & More

NFL awards futures look simple until the price enters the discussion. Picking the player most likely to win MVP, Offensive Player of the Year or Rookie of the Year is only half of the decision because bettors also have to determine whether the current number properly compensates for injuries, team performance, role uncertainty and the voting story that must develop over 17 games.

The 2026 board creates several of those decisions immediately. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, Jahmyr Gibbs leads the Offensive Player of the Year market, Myles Garrett is favored to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year, and the two rookie races remain much more open. My projections agree with some of those favorites, but the players I expect to win are not always the players I want to bet.

My strongest award positions are Justin Herbert for MVP around +1000, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year around +850, Carnell Tate for Offensive Rookie of the Year around +550, Jesse Minter for Coach of the Year around +1000 and Kyler Murray for Comeback Player of the Year at +500 or better. Those prices can move quickly during preseason, so each recommendation includes a point where the edge becomes too thin.

Readers following the larger league picture can use the NFL hub as team expectations, injuries and regular-season results begin reshaping these award markets.

2026 NFL Awards Predictions at a Glance

The following table separates my expected winner from the player or coach offering the more attractive current betting position. That distinction is especially important in MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, where the favorites deserve their position but do not necessarily offer the strongest price.

There are two different types of recommendation in that table. Robinson, Tate, Minter and Murray are cases where my predicted winner also offers enough price to consider betting, while MVP and Defensive Player of the Year require more separation between prediction and value.

NFL MVP Prediction: Josh Allen Is Most Likely, but Justin Herbert Has the Better Price

Josh Allen enters the season as the player I would make most likely to win MVP. The award has become heavily tied to elite quarterback play on teams competing for one of the league's best records, and Buffalo has enough roster quality to put Allen directly into that position.

Allen already owns an MVP-caliber statistical profile because his value is not limited to passing production. His rushing ability creates touchdowns and first downs that other quarterbacks have to generate entirely through the air, giving him multiple paths to a season that looks dominant even if his raw passing yardage does not lead the league.

Buffalo's team performance is important because MVP voters rarely separate quarterback production completely from wins. If the Buffalo Bills compete for the AFC's top seed, Allen will be difficult to keep out of the final discussion.

The problem is the number. Allen around +600 needs to win the award roughly 14.3% of the time on a simple break-even calculation, while Lamar Jackson sits around +800 and Joe Burrow around +850. Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye are available closer to +1000.

That brings Herbert into the betting conversation.

Best MVP Bet: Justin Herbert Around +1000

Herbert's case depends on two connected outcomes: the Chargers need to improve, and the improvement needs to be visibly driven by their quarterback. Both are plausible enough for +1000 to interest me.

The largest change is the environment around Herbert. Los Angeles expects to have Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back at tackle after injuries damaged the protection last season, while the offense has also changed its structure in an effort to reduce the number of difficult passing situations Herbert faces.

That creates the exact type of MVP pathway I want at double-digit odds. If the Los Angeles Chargers jump from playoff participant to AFC West champion while Herbert produces a career-level statistical season, the quarterback will have both the numbers and the team narrative needed to challenge Allen.

The risk is division strength. Kansas City and Denver can both keep the Chargers from producing the 12- or 13-win record that often strengthens an MVP case, while improved protection still has to remain healthy for an entire season.

My MVP prediction is Josh Allen, but my preferred bet is Justin Herbert around +1000. I would continue playing Herbert to approximately +850; below that level, the difference between him and the established favorites becomes too small.

Offensive Player of the Year Prediction: Bijan Robinson Can Turn Volume Into the Award

Jahmyr Gibbs deserves to be the Offensive Player of the Year favorite because his role is expanding after Detroit moved on from David Montgomery. Gibbs has already demonstrated elite efficiency and receiving ability, so a larger workload creates an obvious statistical ceiling.

The price is the issue again. Gibbs has generally been the shortest option in the market, while Bijan Robinson can still be found at a more attractive number despite already producing the type of season normally associated with this award.

Robinson finished 2025 with 2,298 yards from scrimmage, including 1,478 rushing yards and 820 receiving yards. That combination matters because his award case does not depend on leading the league in one narrow category; he can build it through total offensive production.

Atlanta's quarterback uncertainty may actually reinforce the volume argument. Regardless of which quarterback ultimately provides the most stability, Robinson remains the offensive player the system can build around through carries, checkdowns, designed receiving work and red-zone touches.

The Atlanta Falcons do not need to become a Super Bowl contender for Robinson to win this award. They need to generate enough offensive competence for his workload to translate into another season near or above 2,000 scrimmage yards.

Best OPOY Bet: Bijan Robinson Around +850

A price around +850 requires a raw break-even probability of roughly 10.5%. I make Robinson's chances higher than that because the workload is already established and his receiving role protects the projection when Atlanta cannot control games on the ground.

The main competition is excellent. Gibbs may have the best workload-growth story, Ja'Marr Chase can win by separating from the receiver field, and Puka Nacua plays in an offense capable of producing massive passing numbers.

Robinson still offers my preferred combination of demonstrated production and price. I would bet Bijan around +850 and remain interested down to approximately +750, where the number still gives enough margin against a deep group of elite skill players.

Defensive Player of the Year Prediction: Myles Garrett Is the Standard, but the Repeat Price Is Short

Myles Garrett enters 2026 in an unusual position because he is not merely the defending Defensive Player of the Year. He is coming off a 23-sack season and has moved onto a Los Angeles roster expected to contend deep into January.

The football case for another award is straightforward. Garrett has produced double-digit sacks with extreme consistency throughout his career, and joining a stronger overall defense could make it more difficult for offenses to design every protection plan around eliminating him.

The Los Angeles Rams also give Garrett a team environment that should keep him playing in favorable pass-rush situations. Defenders accumulate more award-friendly production when opponents are forced to throw while trailing, and Los Angeles projects to create plenty of those game scripts.

That still does not make +450 attractive enough for me.

Garrett has to repeat an extraordinary season while carrying a raw break-even requirement above 18%. Sack totals are volatile, double-team rates can rise, and another elite pass rusher only needs one massive season to create a credible alternative.

DPOY Value Bet: Will Anderson Jr. Around +700

Will Anderson Jr. is the player I prefer if I have to enter this market before the season. He recorded 12 sacks last year while playing on one of the better defensive units in football, and he is young enough that another step forward in pressure-to-sack conversion is entirely reasonable.

The key difference is price. Around +700, Anderson needs roughly a 12.5% win probability on the simple break-even calculation, giving significantly more room than Garrett at +450.

I would not chase Anderson much below +600 because Garrett's presence at the top of the market and the depth of high-end edge rushers make this one of the more competitive individual awards. My prediction remains Garrett, but Anderson offers the better risk-to-price relationship.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction: Carnell Tate Has the Cleanest Opportunity

The Offensive Rookie of the Year market looks open because each favorite has a different problem. Jeremiyah Love has elite draft capital but enters a backfield with established veterans, while No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza may not begin the season as his team's starting quarterback.

Carnell Tate has the cleaner route to immediate volume.

Tennessee selected Tate fourth overall and has spent the offseason integrating him with Cam Ward. The pairing matters because Tate does not need a quarterback transition halfway through the season to unlock his role; he can begin developing timing with the starter immediately.

That makes the Tennessee Titans situation more appealing for an award future than the team's low preseason expectations might suggest. Tennessee can lose plenty of games and still produce an award-winning receiver if negative game scripts generate targets and Tate quickly becomes the first option in the passing game.

Rookie wide receivers have also shown they can win this award without their team becoming a playoff contender. Target share, yardage and touchdown production can create a strong enough individual case.

Best Offensive Rookie Bet: Carnell Tate Around +550

A price around +550 represents a break-even probability near 15.4%. That is not a huge number for an award market, but Tate's projected role is clearer than several players priced around him.

Love is a worthy favorite, yet running-back committees can make volume unpredictable. Mendoza has the positional advantage of playing quarterback but loses much of that advantage if he spends the opening part of the season behind a veteran starter.

Tate's path is more direct: earn a large target share, build chemistry with Ward and approach or exceed 1,000 receiving yards. I would bet Tate around +550 and remain interested to approximately +450, but I would not chase him toward the very top of the market.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction: Rueben Bain Jr. Has the Right Award Profile

Defensive Rookie of the Year often rewards production that is easy to see and easy to compare. Edge rushers therefore enter with a structural advantage because sacks, pressures and tackles for loss create a simple statistical argument.

Rueben Bain Jr. fits that profile.

Tampa Bay drafted him to strengthen a pass rush that needed more disruption, and his early work has shown the power and speed-to-power ability that made him one of the class's most productive defensive linemen. He has enough versatility to contribute against the run while still generating the splash plays voters notice.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not necessarily need Bain to become a complete every-down star immediately. They need him on the field often enough in passing situations for his pressure ability to generate visible production.

David Bailey is the main threat and has a similarly clean edge-rusher profile. Caleb Downs may be the most talented all-around defender in the class, but safeties often need interceptions, turnovers and a broader statistical story to overcome pass rushers accumulating double-digit sacks.

DROY Bet: Rueben Bain Jr. Around +475

This is a smaller position than Tate in the offensive rookie market because Bain's current price is already relatively short. Around +475 requires a raw win probability of approximately 17.4%.

I still prefer him narrowly because his position gives him a direct route to award-friendly statistics and the early role looks substantial. The difference between Bain and Bailey is not large enough to chase major movement, however.

I would consider Bain at +475 or better and pass once the price falls much below +400. Caleb Downs around +750 remains the more interesting alternative for bettors who want a longer number and are comfortable betting on a defensive back.

Coach of the Year Prediction: Jesse Minter Has the Turnaround Story

Coach of the Year is less about identifying the coach with the best résumé and more about forecasting which team will most dramatically outperform the previous season's expectation. That makes preseason team projection almost inseparable from this market.

Baltimore is the team where my award and season projections overlap most strongly.

The Ravens finished 8-9 last year and missed the postseason, but their roster still contains Lamar Jackson and has been strengthened on defense. Jesse Minter takes over a team capable of moving from outside the playoff field to one of the top seeds in the AFC.

If the Baltimore Ravens make that jump while Minter also improves the defense, voters will have an obvious before-and-after story. A 12-win season would look different from a 12-win season produced by an established coach whose team was already expected to dominate.

John Harbaugh is the market favorite because the Giants won only four games last season, creating an enormous improvement opportunity. The difficulty is that New York can improve by four or five wins and still miss the playoffs, while Minter has a realistic route to both a turnaround and a high seed.

Best Coach of the Year Bet: Jesse Minter Around +1000

At +1000, Minter needs to win the award slightly more than 9% of the time on a simple break-even basis. I make his probability comfortably above that if Baltimore has the season I project.

The risk is that expectations are already high. If the Ravens win 10 games and grab a wild card, voters may see that as merely meeting the roster's talent level rather than exceeding it.

The bet therefore depends on Baltimore's ceiling, not simply making the playoffs. I would play Minter around +1000 and continue to consider him to roughly +800, where the turnaround path still pays enough for the coaching and health uncertainty.

Comeback Player of the Year Prediction: Kyler Murray's New Opportunity Changes the Market

Comeback Player of the Year has one extremely obvious favorite in Patrick Mahomes. He is returning from a major knee injury, has already resumed significant football work and would produce a straightforward award story if Kansas City returns to contention.

The issue is that a price below +200 asks the bettor to treat an injury comeback as unusually predictable. Even for Mahomes, that is an aggressive requirement before Week 1.

Kyler Murray offers a more interesting alternative after being named Minnesota's starting quarterback. Murray played only five games last season because of a foot injury, then changed teams and now enters an offense with one of the league's best receiving weapons.

The Minnesota Vikings give Murray an environment where his comeback can become visible quickly. If Minnesota returns to playoff contention and Murray produces an efficient dual-threat season, the story is substantially different from simply returning to the field.

Best Comeback Player Bet: Kyler Murray +500 or Better

The starting-quarterback decision removes the biggest uncertainty that previously limited Murray's award case. He no longer needs to win a job before he can build his comeback résumé.

That does not remove all risk. Minnesota plays in a deep NFC North, Murray has to remain healthy after several injury-interrupted seasons, and Mahomes can dominate the market simply by looking like Mahomes again.

The price compensates for those concerns far better than the favorite does. I would bet Murray at +500 or better and remain interested down to approximately +450, but I would reassess if the market reacts aggressively to his confirmation as the starter.

Which NFL Award Futures Offer the Best Value?

The strongest positions are not necessarily the shortest prices or even all of my predicted winners. The goal is to find the places where the probability I assign to the outcome appears meaningfully higher than the probability implied by the available number.

Herbert is the highest-upside price because quarterback awards can move quickly once team records separate. Minter offers the cleanest correlation with a preseason team projection, while Robinson and Tate combine defined offensive roles with prices that still leave some margin.

Bettors comparing these markets throughout the season should focus less on raw box-score totals and more on whether the underlying role and team environment are still intact. The NFL stats page becomes increasingly useful once regular-season data replaces preseason assumptions.

NFL Award Futures I Would Avoid at the Current Price

Patrick Mahomes for Comeback Player of the Year is the clearest example of a likely outcome becoming an unattractive wager. He may genuinely be the most likely winner, but a number around +175 to +185 requires a probability above one-third before accounting for market margin.

That is too demanding for an award decided months from now. A setback, a merely good season rather than an elite one or a stronger comeback narrative elsewhere can defeat the ticket without Mahomes actually playing poorly.

Myles Garrett around +450 falls into a similar category, although not as severely. He is my DPOY prediction, but repeating a historic 23-sack season is not necessary for him to remain the best defender in football, while the award market effectively asks for another season that creates separation from an elite group of pass rushers.

Jeremiyah Love is another player I prefer as a projection candidate rather than at an aggressive favorite price. His talent is not the issue; the uncertainty involves how quickly Arizona gives him enough touches to separate from the rest of the rookie field.

For readers unfamiliar with converting prices into implied probabilities or deciding when a futures number has moved too far, the NFL betting guide provides the broader framework for evaluating the number rather than simply choosing a player.

What Could Change These Award Predictions?

Awards markets are more sensitive to role changes than team futures because a player can remain healthy and productive while losing the exact opportunity required to win. A running back who loses goal-line work, a receiver who settles into a secondary target role or a rookie defender who rotates instead of playing every down can see his award probability fall quickly.

Quarterback awards depend heavily on team wins as well. Herbert's MVP case becomes much weaker if Los Angeles finishes 9-8, while Allen's case becomes stronger if Buffalo earns the AFC's top seed even if another quarterback posts slightly larger passing totals.

Injury is the other major source of fragility. Garrett, Robinson and Allen are established enough that a few quiet games do not remove them from contention, but missing three or four weeks can be enough to make up ground almost impossible in an award race.

The rookie markets are even less stable because current depth charts are still being defined. Tate, Bain and the other first-year contenders should be evaluated again once preseason usage clarifies who will actually play the snaps required to accumulate award-level production.

Final 2026 NFL Awards Predictions and Best Bets

My most likely MVP winner is Josh Allen, but the better betting position is Justin Herbert around +1000, where the Chargers' improvement gives him a plausible path to an award-level combination of quarterback production and team success. Bijan Robinson is my Offensive Player of the Year prediction and bet around +850, while Myles Garrett remains the most likely Defensive Player of the Year even though Will Anderson Jr. offers the better price around +700.

Among the rookies, Carnell Tate is my Offensive Rookie of the Year pick around +550, while Rueben Bain Jr. gets the Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction at roughly +475. Jesse Minter around +1000 is my Coach of the Year selection because Baltimore has one of the cleanest turnaround paths, and Kyler Murray becomes my preferred Comeback Player of the Year position at +500 or better now that his starting role is established.

The strongest bets are therefore Herbert MVP, Minter Coach of the Year, Robinson Offensive Player of the Year, Tate Offensive Rookie of the Year and Murray Comeback Player of the Year. Each recommendation has a price limit because the player can remain a strong candidate after the wager itself becomes too expensive.

Once the season begins, injuries, usage and team records will move these awards quickly. Bettors can compare those changing futures positions with the latest NFL picks and predictions before deciding whether the original price still offers an edge.