2026 NFL Awards Odds & Predictions

Josh Allen remains the MVP favorite on the sportsbook boards shown below, with Brock Purdy his closest challenger after San Francisco's unbeaten start. Trevor Lawrence has also moved into the leading group.

The other award races have changed just as quickly. Patrick Mahomes has strengthened his Comeback Player of the Year case, Jeremiyah Love leads the offensive rookie field, and Will Anderson Jr. has moved to the front of the Defensive Player of the Year discussion.

The October assessment below covers results through Week 4 and revisits the preseason selections. The preseason analysis remains a historical baseline, rather than a set of new recommendations. The broader NFL coverage provides the team context behind those individual races.

NFL MVP odds after Week 4

The table compares the lowest and best prices across the reviewed US sportsbook boards. Records cover Week 4; “Aug 11” preserves the preseason reference prices. A dash means the original analysis did not quote that player.

Allen's +250 to +280 range puts him ahead of Purdy at +300 to +400 in this comparison. Their football cases differ: Allen contributes through passing and rushing, while Purdy's argument rests on efficiency, touchdown production and ball security.

Mahomes and Lawrence share a +650 to +800 range. Jackson is between +700 and +1000, with his ankle injury introducing uncertainty into an otherwise strong opening month.

The top contenders through Week 4

These figures cover the first four regular-season games. Passer rating measures passing performance and does not include rushing production.

Purdy has the best numbers of the group, 11 touchdowns against one interception and a 126.2 rating for a 4-0 team, which explains most of his move. Allen leads the market on Buffalo's 3-1 start and his rushing value. Jackson's availability for Week 5 is uncertain after an ankle injury, and his price ranges from +600 to +1000 depending on the book. Herbert has four touchdowns and six interceptions with the Chargers at 0-4.

The other award races

Gibbs and Walker share the shortest price in this snapshot at +350, with Robinson next at +500. Robinson remains a credible Offensive Player of the Year candidate, but the table does not put all three players level.

Love leads the offensive rookie board at +145. Tate is +350 and Boston +450 on the same board, putting Tate second in that comparison.

Rodriguez leads the defensive rookie board at +175, followed by Reese at +300 and Styles at +700. Bain's +4000 price places him well behind that leading group.

The Defensive Player of the Year board is also available. Anderson leads the reviewed board at +300, followed by Watt at +600 and Turner at +900. Garrett's September knee surgery and injured-reserve placement have substantially weakened the preseason repeat prediction.

Coach of the Year prices are available as well. Johnson, Kubiak and Monken are prominent contenders, while Minter's reviewed range is +1100 to +1500. Baltimore must sustain its improvement for the original selection to remain competitive.

Where the preseason selections stand

All seven preseason selections remain open. The preseason price records the original recommendation, rather than a verified wager placed; “Now” shows the reviewed current price or range.

Robinson, Tate and Anderson have shortened from their preseason reference prices. Herbert, Minter, Murray and Bain have drifted. The largest deterioration is Herbert's move from +1000 to a +12000 to +25000 range after the Chargers' winless start.

Shorter odds show a stronger market assessment, not a settled profit or proof that the original selection had value. Every award remains undecided.

Preseason predictions

Before the season, the central question was which candidates combined a realistic award path with enough uncertainty to warrant a separate betting evaluation. The most likely winner and the preferred futures selection were not always the same person.

Allen was the MVP prediction at +600, while Herbert was the preferred alternative at +1000. Garrett was the defensive winner prediction at +450, with Anderson the betting lean at +700. Robinson, Tate, Minter and Murray were the principal selections in their respective races.

The opening month has supported some preseason assumptions and weakened others.

Preseason NFL awards predictions at a glance

The table lists the preseason predicted winners and their reference prices. The preferred betting alternatives appear in the futures positions table below.

Preseason MVP prediction favored Josh Allen

Allen's preseason case rested on his ability to produce through the air and on the ground while leading a team capable of competing near the top of the AFC.

His rushing contribution creates scoring opportunities that passing totals cannot capture. Combined with a strong Buffalo season, that production offered a credible path to another MVP campaign.

The main risk was competition from other quarterbacks capable of pairing elite efficiency with a better team record. The opening month has made Purdy the clearest example of that threat.

Preseason MVP selection was Justin Herbert

Herbert's alternative case depended on improved protection and a more productive offense. The anticipated return of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt was important, while Mike McDaniel's offensive system offered another potential source of improvement.

The projection required the Chargers to become a serious AFC West challenger and Herbert to be the visible reason for that progress. Better surrounding conditions alone would not have been enough.

Division strength and offensive-line health were the main risks. The winless start has substantially weakened Herbert's MVP case.

Preseason Offensive Player of the Year prediction favored Bijan Robinson

Robinson's established workload made his preseason case more concrete than a projection based entirely on expanded opportunity. He finished 2025 with 2,298 scrimmage yards, including 1,478 rushing yards and 820 receiving yards.

That balance gave the Atlanta Falcons running back multiple ways to build an award season. He could contribute through carries, receiving work and scoring opportunities without needing Atlanta to dominate every game.

Gibbs was a significant rival after Detroit traded David Montgomery to Houston. That move created room for more responsibility, although a larger projected role still had to translate into production.

Robinson remains a credible selection

The original argument favored Robinson's combination of demonstrated production and offensive importance. His receiving role could help sustain his involvement when Atlanta fell behind.

The principal risk was a deep field of elite skill players. That concern remains relevant, with Gibbs and Walker providing strong early competition. Robinson's case has held up better than several other preseason selections, but he has not separated decisively from the field.

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year prediction favored Myles Garrett

Garrett entered the preseason analysis as the defending award winner. His move to the Rams offered the possibility of another dominant season in a competitive team environment.

The projection still carried substantial uncertainty. Sack totals fluctuate, protection plans change, and an injury can remove the opportunities needed to build a season-long award case.

That injury risk has become the central issue. Garrett's September surgery and injured-reserve placement mean the preseason prediction cannot serve as an unchanged current recommendation.

Will Anderson Jr. was the alternative

Anderson's preseason appeal came from his pass-rushing ability and room for further development. The case required consistent disruption rather than assuming every pressure would become a sack.

He has since moved into a leading position in the race. That supports the direction of the original lean, although maintaining production across a full season remains the challenge.

Preseason Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction favored Carnell Tate

Tennessee selected Tate fourth overall and paired him with Cam Ward. The original argument centered on a route to meaningful targets and a developing connection with the starting quarterback.

A struggling team can still produce an award-winning receiver. Passing volume creates opportunity, but targets must become productive catches, yardage and touchdowns.

Tate's opening month has strengthened that argument. His role and recent production make him a credible challenger to Love, even with Tennessee's poor team results.

Tate's opportunity remains the key

The preseason selection depended on Tate becoming a substantial part of the passing offense. Draft position alone would not establish that role.

The main risk was inconsistency while adapting to NFL coverage and a developing offense. His stronger recent performances are encouraging, but one productive stretch does not settle the award.

Preseason Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction favored Rueben Bain Jr.

Tampa Bay drafted Bain to address its pass rush. His ability to disrupt passing plays gave him a plausible route to the sacks and tackles for loss that can strengthen a defensive rookie case.

The projection depended on enough playing time to turn that ability into visible production. Talent without a substantial role would leave him behind rookies accumulating impact plays every week.

Bain was a cautious preseason lean

Bain was a less confident selection than Tate. The defensive rookie field included other pass rushers and defensive backs with credible paths to meaningful roles.

Rodriguez, Reese and Styles have since become more prominent contenders. The opening month therefore calls for a reduced assessment of Bain's original case, rather than repeating the preseason prediction without adjustment.

Preseason Coach of the Year prediction favored Jesse Minter

Minter inherited a Baltimore team that finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs in 2025. The preseason argument was that a return to contention, paired with defensive improvement, could create a persuasive turnaround case.

A strong record would matter, but so would how much Baltimore exceeded expectations. Winning with an already talented roster does not automatically distinguish a coach from competitors producing larger improvements elsewhere.

Minter's case depends on sustained progress

Baltimore's 3-1 start keeps the original argument plausible. It has not yet established the level of improvement needed to separate Minter from the field.

Jackson's availability also matters. A coaching award case tied to team success becomes harder to sustain if the offense loses its most influential player for an extended period.

Preseason Comeback Player of the Year prediction favored Kyler Murray

Minnesota named Murray its starting quarterback after an offseason competition. That decision removed the uncertainty about whether he would have an immediate opportunity to build a comeback season.

The original case depended on healthy, effective quarterback play in a new environment. A change of teams was context; the recovery and subsequent performance were the substance of the argument.

Mahomes has become the stronger obstacle

Mahomes already presented a clear challenge because he was returning from a major knee injury. His strong start with Kansas City has made that challenge more substantial.

Mahomes now has the stronger comeback case. Minnesota's team results alone cannot close the gap between their individual performances.

Preseason futures selections and their underlying cases

The preseason positions below distinguish the preferred bets from the more cautious leans. These are historical reference prices, not current recommendations.

Robinson and Tate had role-based arguments. Herbert and Minter depended more heavily on team improvement. Murray needed a convincing individual comeback, while the defensive selections required disruption to become consistent production.

Those distinctions help explain why the selections have moved in different directions after four games.

Preseason reservations about the favorites

The original analysis separated a strong football projection from a strong betting recommendation. Mahomes could have a convincing comeback path while still carrying uncertainty about health and performance.

Garrett's repeat case had similar vulnerability. Established quality did not remove injury risk or guarantee another season that separated him from other defenders.

Love's preseason uncertainty concerned opportunity rather than talent. His strong opening position shows why those assumptions needed to be revisited once regular-season roles became clearer.

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Developments that could change the award outlook

Playing time, offensive responsibility and health remain more useful than isolated highlights. Changes in goal-line work, target share or defensive snap counts can alter an award case even when the player stays active.

Team results are particularly important for quarterbacks and coaches. Herbert needs both better individual performance and a substantial Chargers recovery. Minter needs Baltimore's progress to continue while competing against coaches whose teams are outperforming expectations.

The broader sports betting analysis helps distinguish a repeatable change in performance from a short run of favorable results.

NFL awards outlook after Week 4

Allen and Purdy form the leading MVP comparison, with Mahomes and Lawrence firmly relevant and Jackson's health requiring attention. Herbert's preseason alternative case has weakened enough that it should no longer anchor the current recommendation.

Robinson and Tate remain credible candidates, and Anderson has strengthened the original defensive lean. Garrett's injury, the emergence of other defensive rookies and Mahomes' comeback performance require meaningful changes to the remaining preseason assessments.

The opening month has provided evidence for some selections and against others. The most useful award outlook is the one that responds to those changes without treating an early lead as a final result.