Bucks vs CelticsFinal Score & Recap

The Boston Celtics (7-2) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (1-8) at Fiserv Forum on Sunday at 8:00 PM ET (MyMi and the Bucks App in Milwaukee), four nights after beating them 109-102 in Boston. Licensed books hang Boston -12.5 with the Celtics moneyline at -650 to -714. Our model has Boston at about 79%, below what that price implies. No edge: the Celtics are clearly the better team, and the number already knows it.

How these teams got here

Boston has won seven of its last eight and sits at 5-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. The Celtics score 114.8 points a game and allow 105.1, a +9.7 margin. Friday was a statement: a 119-80 demolition of Charlotte, built on 17-of-31 three-point shooting in the first half, per the AP. Sunday is the second stop on a four-game trip that runs through Philadelphia and Toronto next.

Milwaukee is headed the other way. The Bucks have lost five straight, and the AP noted after Friday's game that this is the franchise's slowest start since 1993-94. They score 109.7 and allow 122.1, a -12.4 margin. The five losses in the streak came by 32, 25, 12, 7 and 14 points, an average of 18. Their lone win was 110-102 over Indiana on Oct. 26.

Friday stung. Milwaukee led a short-handed Toronto team by as many as 15 and still lost 121-107, getting outscored 70-47 after halftime. Both teams were off Saturday, so neither side has a rest edge.

Jayson Tatum vs. a defense that can't get stops

Tatum is the engine: 27.9 points, 8.0 assists and 6.2 rebounds a game in eight appearances, and he dropped 34 points and 9 assists on Charlotte. Paul George adds 19.6, Derrick White 13.3 with 5.1 assists, and Payton Pritchard 12.9. As a team Boston shoots 38% from three. That's a bad matchup for a Milwaukee defense that is giving up more than 122 a night.

The Bucks lean on Tyler Herro (22.3 points, 4.6 assists) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.4), with rookie Brayden Burries coming off career highs of 21 points and 11 rebounds on Friday. The problem is shot quality: Milwaukee hits 43% from the field and 33% from three, and it turns the ball over 17.0 times a game to Boston's 15.4.

The Bucks do have one lever: the glass. They average 47.7 rebounds to Boston's 44.7, with Kel'el Ware at 7.7 boards and Myles Turner at 2.7 blocks a night. Second chances are how a 12-point underdog stays close.

The Wednesday game is the case for Milwaukee

The first meeting is the reason to hesitate before laying the points. Boston led by 22 in the second quarter on Wednesday, then watched Herro score 18 of his 25 in the third quarter as the Bucks went ahead 92-91 in the fourth. White's three-point play and a 12-5 closing run saved it. Tatum sat that night for rest, which he had not done before this season.

The official injury report filed at 9:00 PM ET Saturday lists only G League and two-way players for both clubs. Tatum, George and Pritchard (who left Wednesday's game with a right eye abrasion and played Friday) aren't on it. So this line carries no injury discount. It's a pure form gap, and that makes the number tight to call either way.

How the line has moved

Not much. The spread opened and sits at 12.5, and the total is 222.5 to 223.5 across licensed books. The Boston moneyline has firmed slightly, from -620 to -650 at one shop. That's the market nudging toward the Celtics, not a big reaction to news.

Prediction: no edge

No edge on Bucks vs. Celtics. The reasons:

1. The price. At -650 to -714 Boston needs to win 86.7% to 87.7% of the time to break even, and about 83-84% once the vig is removed. Our model's roughly 79% comes up short.
2. The margins. Boston's +9.7 and Milwaukee's -12.4 per-game margins differ by 22 points, but the spread is already 12.5 with Milwaukee at home.
3. The split evidence. The Bucks' last five losses averaged 18 points, which argues Boston covers. The Wednesday meeting ended a 7-point game without Tatum, which argues it doesn't.
4. No injury angle. With both reports clean apart from two-way players, there's no late news the market hasn't seen.

The swing factor: Boston's three-point volume. A night like Friday's first half blows this open early. A cold night lets Herro and the Bucks' rebounding hang around.

On the total: Boston's games average 219.9 combined points and Milwaukee's 231.8, and the first meeting landed at 211. The 222.5-223.5 number sits between those marks, so we pass there too.