Analysis
Bucks vs Magic Prediction, Picks & Odds (NBA Cup, Nov. 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Orlando 73%, but the best licensed moneyline (-345) implies about 77.5%, and the range runs to -400.
- Milwaukee has lost eight straight, is 0-5 on the road and gets outscored by 14.6 points per game.
- Orlando is 0-4 at home and without Paolo Banchero; Suggs, da Silva and Cain are questionable.
- Franz Wagner averages 23.5 points and 7.9 assists; Tyler Herro leads Milwaukee at 21.9 points.
The Milwaukee Bucks (1-11) visit the Orlando Magic (4-7) on Friday at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA Cup group play (WRDQ and DAZN in Orlando, WCGV My24 and Bucks+ in Milwaukee). Orlando is an 8.5- to 9.5-point favorite, and the total sits at 222.5–223.5. The market prices the Magic near 80% to win, yet they are 0-4 at home and still without Paolo Banchero. SportsHub verdict: no edge.
How these teams got here
Milwaukee has lost eight straight since its only win, 110-102 over Indiana on Oct. 26. The Bucks are 0-5 on the road and get outscored by 14.6 points per game (106.8 scored, 121.3 allowed). The low point came Tuesday, a 117-85 loss at New York with Tyler Herro out of the lineup. Wednesday's 123-112 home loss to the Lakers was at least competitive.
Orlando comes home from a four-game Western trip that finished 2-2, closing with wins at Sacramento (107-100) and Utah (123-108) on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Magic's problem is Kia Center: they are 0-4 at home, with losses to Atlanta, Minnesota, Boston and Washington, and they average just 102.3 points there. On the season they score 108.5 and allow 114.0.
Rest is even. Both teams played Wednesday, so each gets one day off, though Orlando had the longer flight home from Salt Lake City.
The Cup adds a little juice. Orlando opened group play 1-0 with a 121-114 win at Toronto on Oct. 30. Milwaukee is 0-1 after a 121-107 home loss to the Raptors on Nov. 6.
Franz Wagner against a leaky Bucks defense
With Banchero out, Franz Wagner is carrying Orlando: 23.5 points, 7.9 assists and 6.5 rebounds in 36.8 minutes a night. Desmond Bane adds 18.0 points and has made 39 of 100 threes. Anthony Black chips in 17.8 points and 5.5 assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. owns the glass at 9.5 rebounds.
Milwaukee's offense runs through Herro (21.9 points, 33-of-85 from three) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.1 points). The Bucks launch 43.2 threes per game but hit only 33.8%. They also lose the boards by 4.0 per game and commit 15.8 turnovers. Add those up and you get a team that loses by double digits most nights.
Milwaukee's way in is Orlando's perimeter defense, which allows 37.9% from three. If Herro and the shooters get hot, nine points is a lot for a Magic team that has topped 97 just once in four home games.
Orlando's injury list is the swing
Banchero (right high ankle sprain) has played only two games, averaging 24.5 points, and remains out. Jalen Suggs (right knee bone bruise), Tristan da Silva (left calf strain) and Jamal Cain (left shoulder contusion) are all questionable on the league's official report. Da Silva (15.1 points per game) and Cain both sat out Wednesday's win in Utah, and Suggs hasn't played since Oct. 25. Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda are out.
Milwaukee has nobody on Friday's official report. Myles Turner, listed day-to-day for rest by AP, did not play Wednesday. Herro returned against the Lakers after missing the Knicks game.
If da Silva plays, Orlando gets a second shooter (32-of-80 from three) to stretch the floor around Wagner. If he and Cain both sit, the Magic are thin at forward again.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Orlando is the better team, but the price already says so.
- The price is too steep. Our model gives Orlando 73%. The best licensed moneyline, -345, needs about 77.5%, and the range runs to -400 (80%).
- Home form cuts against the favorite. Orlando is 0-4 at Kia Center and scoring 102.3 points per game there.
- The roster is thin. Banchero is out, and three rotation players are questionable.
- Milwaukee's numbers back the favorite. The Bucks' -14.6 point differential, eight-game skid and 0-5 road mark are the reasons the line is this big, and they leave no value on Milwaukee either.
Swing factor: Milwaukee's three-point volume against a defense allowing 37.9% from deep. A hot shooting night is the Bucks' only path to a cover.
On the total (222.5–223.5): Bucks games average 228.1 combined points and Magic games 222.5, but Orlando's home games have averaged 216.8. That split doesn't add up to a play.
