Analysis
Grizzlies vs Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 2, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Memphis 66%, right where the licensed moneyline (-198 to -238) already prices the Grizzlies.
- Memphis makes 16.0 threes a game at 41.6%; New Orleans makes 8.8 at 31.2%, a gap of about 21 points a night.
- New Orleans' counter is pressure: 13.7 steals per game against Memphis' 6.2.
- The spread has moved from -5.5 overnight to -6/-6.5, and the total has dropped from 235.5–236.5 to 233.5–234.5.
The unbeaten Memphis Grizzlies (6-0) host the New Orleans Pelicans (2-4) at FedExForum on Monday at 8:00 PM ET (DAZN and WATN-ABC24 in Memphis, GCSEN and Pelicans+ in New Orleans). Memphis is a 5.5- to 6.5-point favorite (-198 to -238 on the moneyline), with the total at 233.5–234.5. The tension: Memphis makes 16 threes a night and New Orleans fewer than nine. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Memphis hasn't just won six straight; it has buried people. The Grizzlies are +15.2 points per game, scoring 121.2 and allowing 106.0, and four of the six wins came on the road. Saturday's 136-105 rout of Sacramento was the biggest margin yet.
The fine print is the schedule. Those six wins came against Utah twice, Sacramento twice, Portland and Golden State. Tonight is the first look at a Southwest Division rival, and the first of four meetings with New Orleans this season.
The Pelicans started 0-4, losing by 3 to Indiana, by 1 at Utah and twice to Denver, before finding a pulse at home: 132-120 over Sacramento and 121-99 over Atlanta on Saturday. They're still 0-2 on the road, and at 117.8 points allowed the defense hasn't held up. Both teams had Sunday off, so rest is even.
The three-point gap against the turnover gap
This game turns on one number. Memphis has made 96 of 231 threes (41.6%), or 16.0 a game. New Orleans has made 53 of 170 (31.2%), or 8.8 a game. That's roughly 21 points a night from behind the arc before anyone touches the paint.
The shooting runs deep. Ty Jerome leads Memphis at 25.8 points and 5.8 assists. Rookie Cameron Boozer is posting 17.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists, and Cedric Coward has hit 13 of 21 from three. Memphis also owns the glass, 49.8 rebounds to 44.0.
New Orleans answers inside and with its hands. Zion Williamson is scoring 20.7 points on 64% shooting (47 of 73), and the Pelicans shoot 50% as a team. Their real weapon is pressure: 13.7 steals per game, more than double Memphis' 6.2. They forced Atlanta into 19 turnovers on Saturday. The catch is that they gave it away 25 times themselves, and they average 18.7 turnovers to Memphis' 16.0.
Who's missing
New Orleans is without Jordan Poole (left ankle) and center Yves Missi (left knee bone bruise). Poole's absence costs less than the name suggests, since he's shot 4 of 21 this season. Missi's hurts more: he was 8 of 9 in his two games, and it leaves the middle to Derik Queen (7.8 rebounds), Karlo Matkovic and DeAndre Jordan against a Memphis team that already wins the boards. Trey Murphy III (14.3 points) is listed as probable with patellar tendinopathy.
Memphis lists Scotty Pippen Jr. as doubtful (low back) and Quinten Post as questionable (right ankle). Post matters more than his 7.6 points: he's a center who spaces the floor, 5 of 12 from three. If he sits, Zach Edey and Isaiah Stewart soak up the minutes.
How the line has moved
Overnight, several books had Memphis at -5.5. Most now sit at -6 to -6.5, with one still at -5.5. The total went the other way, from 235.5–236.5 down to 233.5–234.5. The market has leaned Memphis and lower scoring. The early value on the favorite is gone.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Memphis is the better team, and the price already says so.
- The model doesn't beat the market. It gives Memphis 66% at low confidence, and the licensed moneyline implies about 64–66% once the vig is stripped.
- The shooting gap is real but young. 41.6% on 231 attempts is elite. It came against a soft opening slate, though, and six games is a small sample.
- The turnover battle cuts the other way. New Orleans' 13.7 steals can buy back the possessions the three-point gap takes away.
- The move ate the number. At -6 or -6.5, Memphis has to win by two full possessions. It has done that in four of six games, but not yet against a defense that forces turnovers like this one.
Swing factor: if Memphis' threes fall at their season rate again, this one is over by the fourth quarter. If they cool off while New Orleans turns steals into transition points, the Pelicans are live.
On the total: Memphis games average 227.2 combined points and New Orleans games 237.5. The 233.5–234.5 line sits almost exactly between them, so we have no lean.
