Analysis
Pacers vs Hawks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 2, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Atlanta at 73%, but the -408 to -441 moneyline implies about 80–82%.
- Indiana is without Siakam, Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith and Zubac, a combined 82.9 points per game, on a back-to-back.
- The spread jumped from about -4.5 to Hawks -9.5 after the Pacers' report; the total sits at 230.5.
- Jalen Johnson (18.1 pts, 7.9 ast) is questionable for Atlanta with an ankle sprain.
The Indiana Pacers (2-5) host the Atlanta Hawks (3-4) at 7:30 PM ET Monday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (DAZN IND, NBA League Pass). Atlanta is 9.5 points favored at licensed books, a number that opened near 4.5, with the total at 230.5. The hook is Indiana's injury report: the Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back and rule out Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. Our call: no edge — the line has already priced in the absences.
How these teams got here
Indiana has dropped four straight, and Sunday's 98-90 home loss to Brooklyn dropped the Pacers to 0-3 at home. They score 112.9 points a game and allow 116.7, a -3.8 margin, and that was with most of the regulars available.
Atlanta's start is no smoother. The Hawks opened with road wins at Orlando and Charlotte (128-81), then lost four of their next five. That stretch ended with a 121-99 loss at New Orleans on Saturday. Atlanta averages 116.3 points and allows 115.4, so it's close to break-even, with a 2-2 road record. The rest edge goes to the Hawks: they had Sunday off while Indiana played.
This is the first of four meetings this season.
Atlanta's depth against Indiana's leftovers
The matchup is less about a single unit than about who's left to create. Atlanta's scoring is spread out: Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads at 19.3 points, Aaron Wiggins adds 14.7 while shooting 43.5% from three, CJ McCollum chips in 14.4, and Onyeka Okongwu gives 11.9 points and 7.1 boards. Dyson Daniels (10.3 points, 4.3 assists) makes it six Hawks averaging double figures.
Jalen Johnson is the wild card. He leads the Hawks with 9.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists to go with 18.1 points, and he's officially questionable with a left ankle sprain. Without him, Atlanta loses its main playmaker. Kingston Flemings, its backup creator at 4.7 assists, is serving a league suspension.
For Indiana, the healthy rotation is thin on shot creation. Obi Toppin (15.2 points, 40.7% from three) is questionable with a lumbar sprain. Behind him are Kelly Oubre Jr. (9.4), Quenton Jackson (8.7), Jarace Walker (6.9 points, 6.0 rebounds) and Jay Huff (6.0).
The Pacers' injury list is the whole story
The five absent regulars with stats this season, Haliburton, Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith and Ivica Zubac, combine for 82.9 points per game. Siakam is resting on the back-to-back after averaging 21.4 points and 7.4 rebounds. Haliburton (21.8 points, 9.5 assists in four games) has a left hamstring strain. Nembhard (18.5 points, 7.3 assists) is out for cervical injury management. T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ben Sheppard (meniscus) and Johnny Furphy (ACL) are out too, and Larry Nance Jr. is doubtful with an illness.
Atlanta is missing size: Jock Landale (hip) and Mouhamed Gueye (foot) are out, which puts more minutes on Okongwu. Even so, the Hawks are far closer to full strength than Indiana.
How the line has moved
Atlanta opened around -4.5 with a moneyline near -200. After Indiana's report, the books pulled the game and reposted it at -9.5, with the Hawks between -408 and -441 and the Pacers +320 to +335. The total slipped from about 232 to 230.5, which fits a Pacers offense missing its top three playmakers.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Atlanta should win this game, but the price has outrun the model:
- The model gives the Hawks 73%. The best licensed moneyline, -408, implies about 80%, and -441 implies about 82%.
- ESPN's matchup predictor is lower still, at 70.2% for Atlanta.
- Nearly five points of spread movement (from -4.5 to -9.5) already accounts for the 82.9 points per game Indiana is missing.
- Johnson's status cuts against laying the number: if he sits, Atlanta loses its lead playmaker and has no Flemings behind him.
The swing factor is Toppin. If he plays, Indiana has a scorer who can keep a short-handed team within range. On the total, the two teams' scoring averages add up to 229.2, almost exactly the 230.5 posted, so there's nothing to chase there either.
