Analysis
Pacers vs Knicks Prediction, Picks & Odds (NBA Cup, Nov. 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives the Knicks about 69%, while the best licensed moneyline (-241) implies 70.7%.
- New York outscores opponents by 6.8 points a game and outrebounds them by 8.3; Indiana is -2.4 and -6.5.
- Tyrese Haliburton is out again: Indiana is 2-2 with him and 2-6 without him. Aaron Nesmith is questionable.
The New York Knicks (6-5) visit the Indiana Pacers (4-8) on Friday, Nov. 13 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, an NBA Cup group-play game streaming on Prime Video. New York is laying 6.5 to 7.5 points (moneyline -241 to -278), with the total at 219.5 to 221.5. Tyrese Haliburton is out again, and the price has already absorbed that. SportsHub call: no edge. Our model's Knicks number sits right on the market.
How these teams got here
Indiana's season splits around Haliburton's hamstring. He played the first four games, averaging 21.8 points and 9.5 assists, and the Pacers went 2-2. He hasn't played since Oct. 26, and Indiana is 2-6 without him. Half of those six losses came by five points or fewer: 125-122 at Dallas, 108-104 to Atlanta and 114-109 to Philadelphia. The Pacers did snap a two-game skid Wednesday, beating Washington 114-101 behind 28 points from Pascal Siakam and 20 from Ivica Zubac.
The Knicks also played Wednesday and fell 115-107 at home to Cleveland. That ended a four-game win streak in which they beat Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland and Milwaukee (117-85). Neither team played Thursday, so rest is even.
The scoring profiles are mirror images. New York scores 110.3 a night and allows just 103.5, a +6.8 margin built on defense. Indiana scores 111.6 but gives up 114.0, and the Pacers are only 1-5 at home.
Knicks size vs. Pacers pace
This matchup comes down to the glass against the open floor. New York is +8.3 in rebounding (48.1 to 39.8 per game) and grabs 14.2 offensive boards a night. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.9 points and 13.5 rebounds. Indiana gets outrebounded by 6.5 per game and gives up 12.2 offensive rebounds. If the Knicks win the possession battle like that, a 4-8 team has to shoot well above its 46.8% to keep up.
The Pacers' counter is pace and paint touches. Indiana scores 50.2 points in the paint and 16.1 on the break, with Andrew Nembhard running the offense at 17.1 points and 7.8 assists in Haliburton's place and Siakam scoring 22.7 per game. New York allows 37.8 paint points and 11.9 fast-break points. That's the gap Indiana has to close in transition before the Knicks' defense gets set.
Jalen Brunson remains the engine at 26.0 points per game, with three 30-point games in his last seven. OG Anunoby adds 16.5. The Knicks shoot 36.2% from three and hold opponents to 34.2%, while Indiana allows 35.6% from deep.
The injury picture
Haliburton is out on the official report (left hamstring strain), along with Ben Sheppard (meniscus surgery) and Johnny Furphy (ACL). Aaron Nesmith is questionable with right knee soreness after a two-point night against Washington. He's a rotation wing averaging 11.7 points in 25 minutes, and his size on the perimeter matters against Brunson and Anunoby. T.J. McConnell is listed as probable with a hamstring strain.
New York has no one on the report. Josh Hart is back after missing three games and played 26 minutes Wednesday. For the Knicks, this is close to a full-strength rotation against a Pacers roster still missing its best player.
How the line has moved
The first licensed numbers, posted in late October while Haliburton was still playing, had the Knicks around -1.5 to -2.5 with a total of 233.5. The spread is now -6.5 to -7.5, and the total has dropped 12 to 14 points to 219.5–221.5. The market has fully priced in a Haliburton-less Indiana and the Knicks' grind-it-out defense. Both of those are already in the number.
Prediction: no edge on Knicks vs. Pacers
No edge. New York is the better team, but the price already says so:
- Our model gives the Knicks about a 69% chance to win. The best licensed moneyline, -241, implies 70.7%, so there's no value on New York's moneyline.
- The +6.8 vs. -2.4 point-margin gap and the +8.3 vs. -6.5 rebounding gap justify a spread in the 6.5–7.5 range. They don't argue for more.
- Half of Indiana's losses without Haliburton were by five points or fewer, which makes laying a seven-point number on the road a tough sell.
- New York's home loss to Cleveland on Wednesday keeps their form from being spotless.
Swing factor: Nesmith's status. If he sits, Indiana loses another rotation player from a thin guard-wing group, and the Knicks' path gets easier.
Total: Knicks games have averaged about 214 combined points; Pacers games about 226. The 219.5–221.5 total splits the difference, so there's no play there either.
