Analysis
Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Picks & Odds (NBA Cup, Nov 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Atlanta about 67% to win, below the 72.5% break-even of the -263 moneyline.
- Chicago has lost nine straight with a -15.5 average scoring margin; Atlanta is +2.1.
- Bulls rookie Caleb Wilson (18.9 ppg) is out with a broken hand, and leading scorer Norman Powell (19.2 ppg) is questionable.
- Chicago shoots 28.9% from three and allows 39.4%; Atlanta shoots 35.2% and allows 33.5%.
The Atlanta Hawks (7-5) visit the Chicago Bulls (1-9) on Friday at 8:00 PM ET at the United Center in an NBA Cup group-stage game, on CHSN in Chicago and WANF in Atlanta. Atlanta is a 6.5-point favorite at -263 on the moneyline across licensed books, with the total at 244.5 to 246.5. Chicago has lost nine straight and just lost its second-leading scorer to a broken hand. Our model has the Hawks winning about two times in three, short of the price. No edge.
How these teams got here
Atlanta is 4-1 over its last five games. It won at Indiana and swept a home-and-home with Washington, then beat Brooklyn 124-121 before Los Angeles handed it a 124-114 loss on Monday. The Hawks score 118.3 points per game and allow 116.2, a modest +2.1 margin built on ball movement (31.7 assists per game) and pressure (opponents average 17.4 turnovers). They're 4-2 on the road and come in on three days of rest.
Chicago is the opposite story. The Bulls' only win came at Milwaukee on Oct. 23. They score 113.3 points per game and give up 128.8, a -15.5 average margin, and they're 0-4 at home. The last two losses were closer, 127-121 to Philadelphia and 124-119 to San Antonio on Wednesday, but even those came with the defense bleeding points. Chicago is on one day of rest.
The perimeter gap
The cleanest number in this game is three-point shooting. Chicago is making only 28.9% of its threes while allowing opponents 39.4% from deep, a double hole no lineup tweak fixes quickly. Atlanta shoots 35.2% from three and holds opponents to 33.5%.
Atlanta's scoring runs through Nickeil Alexander-Walker (21.9 points per game) and Jalen Johnson (19.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists), who missed three games earlier this month but has played the last two (30 points vs. Brooklyn, 15 vs. Los Angeles). Aaron Wiggins (14.9), Onyeka Okongwu (13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds) and CJ McCollum (13.6) give the Hawks five double-digit scorers, while Dyson Daniels (7.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists) drives the defensive pressure.
For Chicago, Josh Giddey (8.3 assists) sets the table, Matas Buzelis adds 13.5 points and Jalen Smith 12.8 points and 7.4 rebounds. The problem is who's left to finish.
Chicago's injury problem
Rookie Caleb Wilson (18.9 points per game) is out with a right metacarpal fracture after logging just 15 minutes against San Antonio. Norman Powell (19.2 points per game), the Bulls' leading scorer, is questionable with low back spasms and has missed the last two games. Without both, Chicago would be missing more than 38 points a night of production from a team that already can't keep pace. Tobe Awaka is out and Dailyn Swain is questionable.
Atlanta's list is long but thinner in impact: Asa Newell, Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar are out, and backup guard Kingston Flemings (8.5 points, 4.4 assists) is questionable with a lumbar spasm. Johnson isn't on the report.
Prediction: no edge
The Hawks are the better team by every measure here, and the market already says so. Our model gives Atlanta about a 67% chance to win, while the -263 price needs 72.5% to break even. That gap is why there's no play.
- The margins. Atlanta's +2.1 against Chicago's -15.5 is a massive gap, but a 6.5-point spread already prices much of it.
- The availability swing. With Wilson out and Powell uncertain, Chicago could be down its top two scorers, which helps Atlanta but is already reflected in the number.
- The three-point math. Chicago's 28.9% shooting against a 39.4% allowed rate is the matchup's biggest edge for Atlanta.
- Rest. Three days off for the Hawks against one for the Bulls.
The swing factor: Powell's status. If he plays, Chicago has a 19-point scorer back, and the Bulls kept their last two losses within six.
On the total: at 244.5 to 246.5, the number sits above both teams' season scoring environments (Atlanta's games average 234.4 combined points, Chicago's 242.1). We have no play on it.
