Analysis
AS Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction, Picks & Odds (Serie A Matchday 11)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model's Roma 81% clears the -370 price (78.7% break-even) only because it gives the draw 5%, against roughly 16% in the market.
- Roma are unbeaten in Serie A (7-3-0) with a league-best +18 goal difference and a league-high 28 goals.
- Sassuolo have lost four straight league games, conceding 16 goals, and their 26 goals allowed are the most in Serie A.
- Roma's Svilar and Dybala are in doubt, and Roma played at Manchester United on Tuesday.
AS Roma (7-3-0, 24 points, 3rd in Serie A) host Sassuolo (2-2-6, 8 points, 17th) on Saturday at 2:45 PM ET at the Stadio Olimpico, streaming on Paramount+. Roma are -370 to win, with the draw at +475 and Sassuolo at +700. The tension: an unbeaten Roma attack that has scored a league-high 28 goals meets the leakiest defense in Italy, but Roma played at Old Trafford on Tuesday and have two goalkeepers hurt. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Roma and Lazio are the only unbeaten teams left in Serie A. Gian Piero Gasperini's side owns the league's best goal difference at +18 (28 scored, 10 conceded), and the attack has been loud lately: a 3-3 draw at Napoli, a 4-2 win over Cagliari and a 5-2 win at Udinese on Oct. 31. The only dent came in the Champions League on Tuesday, a 3-2 loss at Manchester United.
Sassuolo are sliding the other way. Alberto Aquilani's team has lost four straight league games and conceded 16 goals in them: 4-2 at Frosinone, 2-0 at Como, 6-2 at home to Lazio and 4-2 at home to Fiorentina on Monday. Their 26 goals allowed are the most in Serie A. Their last point came in a 1-1 draw with AC Milan on Oct. 11.
The schedule gives Sassuolo the fresher legs: five days off since Monday, against four for a Roma side coming back from England.
Roma's attack vs Sassuolo's back line
Donyell Malen is the focal point: 8 goals in 9 matches and a team-high 35 shots. Matías Soulé adds 3 goals and 3 assists in Gasperini's 3-4-2-1, and Bryan Cristante anchors the midfield. The probable lineups from Fantamaster and Sky Sport Italia both have Malen and Soulé starting, with Niccolò Pisilli and Rodrigo Mora competing for the other attacking spot.
Sassuolo's 4-3-3 lines up with Stefano Turati in goal, Nemanja Matic (2 assists) running the midfield against his old club, and Armand Laurienté (2 goals, team-high 31 shots) and Sebastiano Esposito up front. Vasilije Adzic leads the team with 3 goals. That's a thin attack against a Roma defense that has allowed 1.0 goal per game.
Who's missing, and why it matters
Roma's list is long. Pellegrini (thigh, about two months) and Rensch (adductor, back after the international break) are out. Fantamaster's Friday injury report had Mile Svilar (fractured little toe), Paulo Dybala (mild calf strain) and Koné (hamstring) all to be evaluated for this match, and Sky Sport Italia's probable lineup lists Svilar and Dybala as unavailable. Pierluigi Gollini has a back problem too, so Devis Vásquez is expected in goal. Dybala's 4 assists in 6 matches lead the team, so his absence would take away Roma's best creator.
Sassuolo are without Domenico Berardi, one of their 2-goal scorers. Aquilani ruled him and Volpato out at his press conference, per Fantamaster. Koné (tibia and fibula fracture, back in January) and Leysen (ACL) are long-term absences.
How the line has moved
Even with Roma's injuries, the price has gone toward them: Roma opened at -295 and sit at -370, while the draw drifted from +400 to +475 and Sassuolo from +600 to +700. The total stayed at 3.5, but the over moved from +110 to -110.
Prediction: no edge
Roma should win this game. At -370, though, the question is whether they win it more than 78.7% of the time.
- The table gap is real. Roma are +18 in goal difference, Sassuolo -10, and Sassuolo have conceded 16 in four games.
- The model's number is inflated. It has Roma at 81%, the draw at 5% and Sassuolo at 14% (medium confidence). After removing the bookmaker margin, the market sits near 72.5% / 16% / 11.5%. The model clears the break-even only by pricing the draw at a third of the market's number, and it rates Sassuolo higher than the market does as well.
- Roma aren't at full strength. A third-choice goalkeeper, no Dybala and a Tuesday trip to Manchester make -370 a steep price.
- These meetings stay tight. Roma won the last four by 2-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. None was a rout.
Our call: no edge at -370. The swing factor is the goalkeeper: if Vásquez starts behind a rotated back three, Sassuolo's Laurienté has room to work.
On the total, Roma games average 3.8 goals and Sassuolo games 4.2, but none of the last four head-to-head meetings went over 3.5. At -110 there's no edge on the over either.
