Analysis
Atlanta United vs Red Bulls Prediction, Picks & Odds (MLS Decision Day)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Atlanta 47% against a market that prices the Red Bulls near 50%, at very low confidence.
- Both clubs are out of the playoff race: New York is 10th in the East on 39 points, Atlanta 13th on 33.
- Julian Hall has 13 of New York's 45 goals; Atlanta's top scorers, Almirón and Miranchuk, have 7 each.
- Atlanta is without defender Enea Mihaj (hip) and has allowed 24 goals in 16 road matches.
Atlanta United (9-6-18, W-D-L) visit the New York Red Bulls (11-6-16) on MLS Decision Day, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET at Sports Illustrated Stadium in Harrison, N.J., streaming on Apple TV. The Red Bulls are -109 to -120, Atlanta +225 to +250 and the draw +300 to +310. Both clubs are out of the playoff race, and our model has the opposite favorite from the market. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
New York's season effectively ended last Sunday. The Red Bulls led 1-0 at Nashville on a 34th-minute Julian Hall goal, then lost 3-2 after Cade Cowell had a ninth-minute penalty saved. The result knocked them out of playoff contention. That makes four losses in five matches, with 10 goals conceded in that stretch; the only win was 2-0 at home against Inter Miami on Oct. 24.
The Red Bulls are 10th in the East on 39 points. That ties them with NYCFC and Toronto, four behind ninth-place Orlando with one match left. Their goal difference is -17 (45 scored, 62 allowed).
Atlanta arrives in better form. The Five Stripes beat Toronto 3-1 at home on Nov. 1 and won 3-0 at Montréal in mid-October, going 2-0-3 over their last five. They are 13th on 33 points with a -14 goal difference (43 for, 57 against), so their season ends Saturday too.
Hall against a thinned Atlanta back line
This matchup starts with New York's top scorer. Hall has 13 of the Red Bulls' 45 goals on a team-high 78 shots, with Jorge Ruvalcaba next at eight. The service is spread around: Ronald Donkor has 10 assists, Emil Forsberg nine and Cowell eight.
Atlanta's attack runs through two players. Miguel Almirón has 7 goals and 8 assists in 26 matches (68 shots), and Alexey Miranchuk has 7 goals and 7 assists. Nobody else on the roster has more than four goals.
Atlanta's problem is at the back. Defender Enea Mihaj, second on the team in accurate passes, is out, and the Five Stripes have allowed 24 goals in 16 road matches. In goal, Ethan Horvath has 110 saves for New York to Lucas Hoyos's 79 for Atlanta.
Who's missing
The league's availability report lists Atlanta without Mihaj (hip) and midfielder Will Reilly (ankle). New York is without defender Justin Che (knee). Neither club has a player on the league's Nov. 4 suspension notice.
Mihaj is the absence that matters most. Atlanta has already conceded 57 goals and now plays without one of its regular defenders against a striker with 13.
How the line has moved
New York has firmed from -110 at the open to -120, while Atlanta has drifted from +220 to +240 and the draw from +295 to +310. That is a modest move toward the home side in a match with nothing on the table. The total sits at 3.5, with the over at -112 to -118.
Prediction: No edge
Our model gives Atlanta a 47% chance to win, the draw 19% and New York 34%. That is the opposite of the market, which prices the Red Bulls at about 50% once the vig is removed. At very low confidence, that disagreement isn't a bet. No edge.
- Venue favors New York: the Red Bulls are 6-3-7 at home, while Atlanta is 4-4-8 on the road with 17 goals in 16 matches.
- Form favors Atlanta: two wins in its last five, against one for a New York side that has lost four of five.
- Neither defense is reliable: New York has allowed 62 goals and Atlanta 57, so neither side can count on a clean sheet.
- Motivation is a guess: both teams are eliminated, and nothing in the numbers prices a dead rubber.
The swing factor is Hall. If he finds room against a back line missing Mihaj, New York's home price looks fair. If he doesn't, Atlanta's recent form makes +225 to +250 tempting, though the model doesn't support it with any confidence.
On the total: Red Bulls matches average 3.2 goals and Atlanta's road matches 2.6, so 3.5 looks about right. We pass.
