Analysis
Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 20, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Blues moneyline at -141 (medium confidence). The model gives St. Louis 60%, against roughly 57% implied by the market after the vig.
- Winnipeg is without Connor Hellebuyck (team suspension) and Josh Morrissey (IR, wrist).
- The Jets' power play (30.0%, 3rd) meets a Blues penalty kill at 84.0% (9th).
- The Blues score 3.38 goals per game (9th) but allow 3.50 (25th).
The Winnipeg Jets (4-2-2) visit the St. Louis Blues (3-4-1) Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET at Enterprise Center, streaming on ESPN+ in the US and on TSN3 in Canada. St. Louis is a -141 to -147 moneyline favorite, Winnipeg sits at +116 to +124, and the total is 5.5. The tension: the Blues score more but defend worse, and the Jets are still without Connor Hellebuyck and Josh Morrissey. Our pick: Blues moneyline (-141).
How these teams got here
Winnipeg has banked 10 points through eight games, but the start is fading. The Jets have lost two straight and three of their last four: 5-1 to Anaheim, 4-3 in overtime at Chicago, then 3-2 to Carolina on Saturday when former Jet Nikolaj Ehlers scored the power-play winner 6:43 into the third. They've scored 23 and allowed 24, which works out to 2.88 goals per game (22nd) and 3.00 against (14th), per Inside The Rink.
St. Louis is seventh in the Central with 7 points, and the back end has sprung leaks. The Blues gave up 10 goals in their last two: 5-4 at Minnesota and 5-2 to Nashville on Saturday. Before that they put up seven at Ottawa and five on Columbus. The offense is real at 3.38 goals per game (9th). So is the defensive problem: 3.50 against (25th).
Both teams last played Saturday, so neither side has a rest edge.
Jets power play vs. Blues penalty kill
This is where Winnipeg's case lives. The Jets' power play is converting at 30.0%, 3rd in the NHL. St. Louis kills penalties at 84.0% (9th), so the strength meets a strength. The other direction favors the Blues less than you'd think: their power play runs at 19.0%, against a Jets kill at 78.9%.
Kyle Connor drives the Jets with 8 goals and 11 points. Cole Perfetti has 5 goals and 8 points. Mark Scheifele has a five-game point streak, and his 374th career goal Saturday left him five shy of the franchise record of 379, per the AP. For St. Louis, Mason McTavish leads with 5 goals and 9 points on a six-game point streak, with Pius Suter, Connor McMichael and Dylan Holloway at 6 points each.
Neither starter was confirmed early Tuesday. Daily Faceoff projects Stuart Skinner (3-0-2) for Winnipeg and Joel Hofer (2-2-1, 2.43 GAA) for St. Louis. Jordan Binnington made 19 saves in Saturday's loss, and Clay Stevenson stopped 34 for the Jets.
Winnipeg also loses the dot: 45.9% on faceoffs, 29th, against 48.1% for St. Louis.
What Winnipeg is missing
The Jets are playing without two core pieces. Hellebuyck is serving a team suspension after failing to report to camp, and Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported it should end Friday, Oct. 23. That leaves the crease to Skinner and Stevenson.
Morrissey went on injured reserve Monday with a wrist injury after missing the last four games. Coach Scott Arniel has called him week-to-week, and Winnipeg recalled Brayden Yager from AHL Manitoba. Vladislav Namestnikov is also out.
St. Louis has holes too, mostly on the back end: Logan Mailloux and Tyler Tucker are on IR, as are Dillon Dube and Ross Johnston up front. The Blues recalled Otto Stenberg from Springfield on Monday.
Prediction: Blues moneyline (-141)
Blues moneyline (-141), medium confidence.
- The model is ahead of the price. It gives St. Louis 60%. The -141 to -147 range works out to roughly 57% once the vig is removed.
- The scoring gap. The Blues score 3.38 a game against a Jets defense allowing 3.00, while Winnipeg's 2.88 is 22nd in the league.
- Winnipeg is shorthanded. No Hellebuyck in net and no Morrissey on the blue line, and the Jets have lost three of four since Morrissey went down.
- The Jets' best weapon meets a top-10 kill. Winnipeg's 30.0% power play runs into an 84.0% St. Louis penalty kill.
The risk: the Blues' 3.50 goals against is 25th, and they just allowed 10 in two games. If Connor and the power play get going early, Winnipeg's better record will look like the truer number.
On the total: 5.5, with the over priced at -120 to -128. Two teams combining for 6.26 goals a game lean over, but that's already in the price, so no play.
