Analysis
Capitals vs Kings Prediction, Picks & Odds (Tuesday, Oct 20)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Capitals moneyline at -154 (medium confidence). The model gives Washington 74%; the market implies about 61-62%.
- The Kings score 2.00 goals per game (31st) and are 0-4-2, while Washington scores 3.50 (8th).
- The Kings' penalty kill is at 61.9%, 31st in the NHL.
- Logan Thompson (.910) is projected for Washington; the Kings' options are at .883 and .847.
The Washington Capitals (5-3-0) host the winless Los Angeles Kings (0-4-2) Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena, on Monumental, ABTV and DAZN. Washington sits at -154 to -161 on the moneyline with the total at 5.5. The Kings are getting pucks to the net and nothing else: two goals a game and a penalty kill that leaks. Our pick: Capitals moneyline (-154).
How these teams got here
Washington has won two straight, most recently a 4-2 win over New Jersey on Saturday, and is 4-1 at home. The Caps score 3.50 goals per game, 8th in the NHL, and allow 3.00. Their games have not been quiet: six of eight have gone over 5.5.
Los Angeles is the opposite. A start The Hockey News called the worst in franchise history kept going Saturday with a 4-1 home loss to Boston, the Kings' second straight regulation loss after back-to-back overtime defeats at San Jose and Vegas. They have 12 goals in six games (2.00 per game, 31st) and have allowed 25 (4.17 per game). It's Peter Laviolette's first season behind the bench, and the first without the retired Anze Kopitar down the middle.
Both teams last played Saturday, so neither gets a rest edge. The Kings have yet to win on the road, at 0-1-2.
Special teams and finishing
This is where the game tilts. The Kings' penalty kill is at 61.9% (31st), and Washington's power play, at 19.0%, doesn't need to be great to cash in. At the other end, the Kings' power play is 14.3% (26th) against a Caps kill at 82.1% (11th).
The strange part is that Los Angeles is not being dominated territorially. The Kings average 29.8 shots per game (8th), and Washington allows 29.6, one of the higher marks in the league. The Kings will get looks. They just haven't buried them. Brandt Clarke leads them with 5 points (1 goal, 4 assists), and Artemi Panarin has 3 goals, but nobody else has more than two.
Washington's scoring is spread out. Ryan Leonard and Alex Tuch have 7 points each, Tuch leads the team with 5 goals, and Dylan Strome has 5 assists.
In net, Logan Thompson is the projected Caps starter: 4-2-0, 2.69 GAA, .910 save percentage. The Kings haven't named theirs as of Tuesday morning. Anton Forsberg (2.63 GAA, .883) is the likelier choice over Darcy Kuemper, who is 0-3-1 with a 4.53 GAA and .847. Either way, Washington has the clear edge in goal.
Who's missing
Washington is thin on the back end without Rasmus Sandin (knee, injured reserve), and two forwards, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Justin Sourdif, are out with illness. Matt Roy is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury but targeted a return around this game; his status is worth checking at warmups.
The Kings' absences hit their scoring harder. Kevin Fiala has been on injured reserve since the preseason with a lower-leg injury, and Mats Zuccarello and Alex Turcotte are also on IR. For a team scoring two a night, losing its best pure finisher is a big deal.
Prediction: Capitals moneyline (-154)
Capitals moneyline at -154. The reasons:
- The model has Washington at 74%. The licensed moneyline range of -154 to -161 implies about 61-62%. That is a real gap.
- Finishing: Washington scores 3.50 per game; Los Angeles scores 2.00, 31st in the league.
- Special teams: a 61.9% penalty kill on the road against a team that is 4-1 at home is a bad combination.
- Goaltending: Thompson's .910 against Forsberg's .883 or Kuemper's .847.
The risk: Los Angeles out-shoots most opponents, and three of its six games were decided by one goal. If the Kings' shooting luck turns, it could be tonight. That's also why we prefer the moneyline to the -1.5 puck line.
On the total: 5.5 with the over juiced. Washington's games run high, but the Kings' last four have all finished with five goals or fewer. No play.
