Analysis
Devils vs Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 20, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Colorado at low confidence, and the market has it at -108 to -110 both ways.
- Colorado scores 4.22 goals per game, second in the NHL, but plays the second night of a back-to-back.
- New Jersey leads the NHL with 35.0 shots per game; its penalty kill is 27th at 69.6%.
- Likely starters Wedgewood (.902), Allen (.876) and Daws (.857) are all under .905.
The Colorado Avalanche (5-3-1) visit the New Jersey Devils (4-4-0) at Prudential Center on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET (MSG, MSG 2, MSG+). The books can't separate them: both sides sit at -108 to -110 on the moneyline, with the total at 6.5. Colorado brings the NHL's second-best offense into the second night of a back-to-back; New Jersey brings the league's heaviest shot volume and a penalty kill that leaks. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Colorado is scoring at will. The Avs have 38 goals in nine games (4.22 per game), second in the league, against 27 allowed for a +11 differential. The problem is the schedule: they lost 3-2 in Philadelphia on Monday and play again less than 24 hours later, with Mackenzie Blackwood having started that game. They're 2-2-0 on the road.
New Jersey's season has swung game to game. The Devils hammered the Rangers 7-1, then lost 4-2 to Washington on Saturday, which leaves them at 25 goals for and 27 against. The underlying process is better than the record: New Jersey leads the NHL with 35.0 shots per game, allows only 25.0, and has outshot its opponent in all eight games. At home they're 3-2-0.
Nathan MacKinnon vs. a 27th-ranked penalty kill
The decisive battle is Colorado's top line against New Jersey's structure. Nathan MacKinnon entered Monday with 16 points (6 goals, 10 assists), 11 of them in his previous five games. Artturi Lehkonen has six goals on just 12 shots, and Cale Makar has nine points in seven games, all three projected together with Martin Necas on the top unit.
Special teams tilt toward Colorado. The Devils' penalty kill is 69.6%, 27th in the league, while Colorado's sits at 85.0%, eighth. Both power plays are 6-for-29 (20.7%), with Nico Hischier owning three of New Jersey's six power-play goals. The Devils' saving grace is discipline: they average 7.4 penalty minutes per game, second-fewest in the NHL, so that weak kill doesn't see the ice often.
In goal, nobody has named a starter. With Blackwood used Monday, Scott Wedgewood is the likely Colorado option: 1-0-1, 2.40 GAA, .902 save percentage in two starts, and 5-0-0 with a .948 in seven career appearances against New Jersey. The Devils pick between Jake Allen (3-2-0, 3.18 GAA, .876), who started Saturday, and Nico Daws (1-2-0, 3.37 GAA, .857). None of the three is stopping more than 90.2% of shots this season, and that's the hinge for a game with this much firepower.
Who's missing
Colorado's absences are depth, not stars. Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux are out, and Logan O'Connor and Georgii Merkulov are on injured reserve. That thins the bottom six and the penalty kill rotation, but MacKinnon, Necas, Lehkonen, Makar, Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri are all projected in.
New Jersey is without Nick Bjugstad, Seamus Casey and Connor Brown, all on injured reserve. Anthony Mantha is day-to-day with an illness and Jonas Siegenthaler is day-to-day, though both appear in the projected lineup. Jack Hughes, Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier and Dougie Hamilton are all expected to play, so the Devils' top-end skill is intact.
Prediction: no edge
The model leans Colorado, but only at low confidence, and the market prices this as a coin flip. We pass on a side:
- Colorado's offense is real. 4.22 goals per game against a Devils team allowing 3.38 is the biggest gap on the board.
- The schedule cuts the other way. Colorado is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 3-2 loss, likely with its backup in net.
- New Jersey's shot volume travels. 35.0 shots per game against a .902 goalie is a lot of pucks for a tired team to defend.
- Special teams favor Colorado, but rarely matter. An 85.0% kill versus 69.6% is a clear edge, muted by New Jersey's 7.4 penalty minutes per game.
Swing factor: the goalie announcements. A Blackwood start for Colorado, or a hot Wedgewood, would move this toward the Avs.
On the total: 6.5, with the under shaded at -115 to -128. Three likely starters under .903 argue for goals, but Colorado's tired legs and the price on the under keep us off it.
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