Analysis
New York Islanders vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 20, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Islanders but only with low confidence, and New York's -149 to -159 price comes after two forwards went down for weeks on Monday.
- Ilya Sorokin: 1.68 GAA and .940 save percentage in six games. Lukas Dostal, confirmed for Anaheim: 3.17 and .882.
- Anaheim lost 5-2 to the Rangers on Monday, its third straight loss, and plays the second night of a back-to-back.
- The Islanders are without Mathew Barzal (IR), Calum Ritchie (4-6 weeks) and Matias Maccelli (2-4 weeks).
The New York Islanders (4-3-1) host the Anaheim Ducks (4-4-0) at UBS Arena on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET (MSGSN, FOXLA+, Prime Video), with New York priced from -149 to -159 on the moneyline and the total at 5.5 or 6. The tension: Anaheim is on a back-to-back after a 5-2 loss to the Rangers on Monday, but the Islanders just lost two more forwards for weeks. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
The Islanders have alternated wins and losses all season, and the latest swing went their way: a 4-1 win in Toronto on Saturday. That gives them two full days off going into Tuesday. Through eight games they have scored 24 and allowed just 18, an average of 2.13 goals against per game, the backbone of a team that has scored exactly 3.00 per game.
Anaheim's season has gone the other way. The Ducks opened 4-1-0, then dropped three straight to Calgary (4-2), Boston (4-2) and the Rangers (5-2). They have scored only two goals in each of those losses and allowed 13 over the three games, leaving them at 24 scored and 26 allowed. Monday's loss at Madison Square Garden means they play their second game in two nights, with a short trip across town and no rest.
Sorokin against a Ducks attack that's gone quiet
This is the matchup that tilts the ice. Ilya Sorokin projects to start for New York, though Daily Faceoff lists him as unconfirmed. He is 4-2-0 with a 1.68 GAA and a .940 save percentage in six games, with one shutout. On the other side, Lukas Dostal is confirmed for Anaheim after Ville Husso played Monday. Dostal sits at 3-3-0, 3.17 and .882. As a team, the Islanders have stopped .919 of the shots they've faced; the Ducks are at .879.
Shot volume doesn't separate them: both teams sit at about 25 shots per game, and both allow between 26 and 27. So the difference is finishing and goaltending, and that favors the home side.
Special teams are where Anaheim fights back. The Ducks' power play is converting 24.1%, against an Islanders unit at just 16.7%. But New York's penalty kill (86.7%) is far sturdier than Anaheim's (79.3%), so the Ducks' best weapon runs straight into the Islanders' best unit.
Up front, Bo Horvat leads New York with 5 goals and 9 points, and Matthew Schaefer has 7 assists from the blue line. Anaheim's offense runs through Leo Carlsson (9 points), Beckett Sennecke (5 goals) and Mikael Granlund (8 points). The Islanders also win the dot: 53.0% on faceoffs against Anaheim's 43.5%.
The Islanders' depth is getting thin
The case for New York would be cleaner if the roster were whole. Mathew Barzal (knee) remains on injured reserve. On Monday the team announced that Calum Ritchie will miss 4-6 weeks and Matias Maccelli 2-4 weeks, both with lower-body injuries. Defenseman Alexander Romanov (knee) is also on IR. That strips out center depth and playmaking that a power play converting 16.7% can't afford to lose, and it forces New York deeper into its lineup against a team that played last night.
Anaheim is banged up too. Troy Terry (hip) is on long-term injured reserve, center Ryan Poehling is out 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain, and defenseman Ian Moore (lower body) is on IR. Both teams are missing real pieces; the Islanders' losses are simply fresher, and the lineup hasn't played with them out yet.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The model favors the Islanders, but with low confidence, and that's not a number we headline. Here's how it shakes out:
- Goaltending favors New York: Sorokin's .940 against Dostal's .882 is the biggest gap in the game.
- The schedule favors New York: Anaheim's back-to-back after three straight losses, against two days of rest at home.
- The price already reflects it: at -149 to -159, the market has the Islanders around 60% to win.
- Injuries cut the other way: Barzal, Ritchie and Maccelli out of the forward group make New York's 3.00 goals per game harder to count on.
- Special teams are a wash: Anaheim's 24.1% power play against New York's 86.7% penalty kill.
The swing factor is the Ducks' power play. If Anaheim draws penalties against a short-handed Islanders lineup, Dostal doesn't have to steal the game.
On the total, books split between 5.5 and 6. Sorokin's form and the low shot counts point under, but Anaheim has allowed 13 goals in three games. It's a pass for us.
