Analysis
Columbus Blue Jackets vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 20)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Toronto 52% at very low confidence, while the licensed moneyline (-154 to -161 on Columbus) prices the Jackets near 61%.
- Toronto's power play (28.6%) and penalty kill (96.9%) dwarf Columbus' 11.8% and 68.0%.
- Toronto is on a back-to-back with Anthony Stolarz (.875) expected in net; Columbus had Monday off.
- Columbus scores 2.43 goals per game to Toronto's 3.20.
The Columbus Blue Jackets (3-4-0) host the Toronto Maple Leafs (4-4-2) on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET at Nationwide Arena (Blue Jackets Hockey Network, Sportsnet, ESPN+). Columbus is a -154 to -161 home favorite across licensed books, Toronto sits at +130 to +136, and the total is 6.5. The tension: Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back with its starter resting, yet its special teams have lapped Columbus. No edge: the model makes Toronto a 52% side at very low confidence.
How these teams got here
Toronto snapped a three-game skid Monday with a 3-1 home win over San Jose. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 31 shots, Auston Matthews scored on the power play and Gavin McKenna's third-period power-play goal stood up as the winner. Before that, the Leafs had lost 5-4 in overtime to Buffalo and 4-1 to the Islanders.
The Leafs have scored 32 goals in 10 games and allowed 33, counting a shootout loss in Vegas. They are 1-1-1 on the road.
Columbus is 3-2-0 at home, and scoring is the problem: 2.43 goals per game. The Jackets beat the Rangers 1-0 in overtime Saturday on a Kent Johnson goal, then lost 2-1 in Minnesota on Sunday while getting outshot 35-15. They had Monday off. Toronto played last night and travels.
Special teams vs. a tired crease
This is the matchup that decides the night. Per NHL.com team stats, Toronto's power play converts at 28.6% and its penalty kill sits at 96.9%. Columbus is at 11.8% on the power play and 68.0% on the kill. If this game turns into a parade to the box, that gap is Toronto's clearest path to two points.
Matthews has been the engine: 10 points, including five goals, in his last five games. William Nylander has five assists in that span. For Columbus, Zach Werenski has four assists in his last five and Johnson has three goals.
In goal, Anthony Stolarz is expected to start with Bobrovsky staying home, per The Leafs Nation. Stolarz is 2-1-0 with an .875 save percentage and a 3.32 GAA in three appearances.
Columbus had not named a starter by Tuesday morning. Jet Greaves (2-2-0, .907, 2.58 GAA, one shutout, Saturday against the Rangers) is the projected option on normal rest. Cam Talbot (.875) was in net in Minnesota. If Greaves gets the crease, Columbus holds the goaltending edge on paper.
There's a subplot too. Kirill Marchenko makes his first trip back to Columbus since leaving for Toronto, with 10 points this season, per The Cannon.
Who's missing
Toronto is without John Tavares (lower body, week to week), Chris Tanev, Max Domi and Miles Wood, all on injured reserve. Losing Tavares thins the middle of the lineup behind Matthews, and Tanev's absence leaves a hole on the blue line. Nylander is listed day-to-day with an illness: he skipped Monday's morning skate but played against San Jose.
Columbus has blue-line holes of its own. Ivan Provorov (lower body) and Dante Fabbro are on injured reserve, and center Isac Lundestrom (Achilles) is out long term. The Cannon reports Fabbro may be nearing a return, but that isn't confirmed.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The licensed moneyline prices Columbus at roughly 61% with the vig included. The model has Toronto at 52%, but at very low confidence, which isn't enough to headline a play. The reasons split:
- Special teams favor Toronto: 28.6% vs. 11.8% on the power play, 96.9% vs. 68.0% on the kill.
- Scoring favors Toronto: 3.20 goals per game against Columbus' 2.43.
- The schedule favors Columbus: the Jackets had Monday off; Toronto is on a back-to-back with Bobrovsky resting.
- Goaltending favors Columbus on paper: Greaves at .907 against Stolarz at .875, if Greaves starts.
The swing factor is Columbus' starter. A Talbot start would pull the crease battle back to even and make Toronto's special teams the loudest number on the sheet.
On the total, 6.5 is a big number for a Columbus team scoring 2.43 a game, and the under is shaded to -110 to -120 at licensed books. Both teams also allow more than three goals a game, so we're passing on it too.
