Analysis
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Picks & Odds (2026 Heritage Classic)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Montreal, but low confidence, Nick Suzuki's absence and unnamed starters keep us off the -114 to -118 price.
- Winnipeg has lost three straight (0-2-1) and ranks 25th in goals per game at 2.60.
- Montreal outshoots opponents 29.5 to 25.8 per game; Winnipeg is outshot 30.0 to 26.5.
- The power play tilts to Winnipeg: 22.2% against Montreal's 12.5%, which ranks 28th.
The Winnipeg Jets (4-3-3) host the Montreal Canadiens outdoors in the Tim Hortons NHL Heritage Classic on Sunday, Oct. 25 at 7 p.m. ET at Princess Auto Stadium (TNT, truTV, HBO Max; SN and TVAS in Canada). Montreal is a slim -114 to -118 favorite, with the total at 5.5 or 6 depending on the book. Our model likes the Habs, but with Nick Suzuki out and both starters unnamed, SportsHub has no edge on this one.
Winnipeg limps in, Montreal regroups
The Jets opened 3-0-1 and have cooled hard since. They have lost three straight: 3-2 at home to Carolina on Oct. 17, 2-1 in St. Louis on Oct. 20 and 3-2 in overtime in Dallas on Thursday. Through 10 games they have scored 26 and allowed 29, and their 2.60 goals per game ranks 25th in the league.
The bigger story broke Saturday. Winnipeg traded Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey for Dawson Mercer, goalie Nico Daws, Nick Bjugstad and picks. Hellebuyck had not played a game this season, so the crease does not change for Sunday, but the roster churn lands the day before the biggest home date on the calendar.
Montreal arrives off a 4-1 win in Chicago on Friday, one game after a 4-3 overtime loss to San Jose that cost it its captain. The Habs have one day of rest to Winnipeg's two.
Montreal's shots against Winnipeg's power play
At even strength this matchup leans Montreal. The Canadiens average 29.5 shots per game (9th) and allow 25.8 (T-12th). Winnipeg generates 26.5 (22nd) and gives up 30.0 (27th). Montreal also wins 53.7% of its faceoffs (4th) to Winnipeg's 45.0% (30th), though that edge shrinks without Suzuki.
Special teams flip it. Winnipeg's power play runs at 22.2% (T-13th) while Montreal's sits at 12.5% (28th). The penalty kills are close to even at 80.8% and 81.0%. Kyle Connor leads the Jets with 9 goals and 12 points, with Cole Perfetti (6 goals) and Mark Scheifele (8 points) behind him. For Montreal, Cole Caufield has 6 goals and Lane Hutson 9 points from the blue line.
In goal, Stuart Skinner has started seven of Winnipeg's 10 games with a 2.67 GAA and .912 save percentage; Clay Stevenson is at .893. Montreal's split is the real question mark: Jacob Fowler is 4-1-0 with a 1.94 GAA and .910, Jakub Dobes is 1-2-2 with a 4.47 GAA and .847. Neither team had named a starter as of Saturday evening.
Suzuki's absence reshapes Montreal's lineup
Suzuki leads Montreal with 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and is out two to four weeks with an upper-body injury, ending a run of 546 straight regular-season games. Montreal is also without forward Ivan Demidov (lower body) and goalie Samuel Montembeault, both on injured reserve. That is a lot of talent missing from one lineup at once.
Winnipeg has its own hole on the back end. Josh Morrissey is on injured reserve with a wrist injury, which pushes Neal Pionk (1 goal, 6 assists) into a bigger role. Nino Niederreiter is day-to-day with an upper-body issue.
Prediction: no edge on Jets vs Canadiens
The model makes Montreal a 66% winner, well above the roughly 54% the moneyline implies. We are not following it here:
- Low confidence. The model flags its own call as low confidence, and that is below our bar for a headline pick.
- Suzuki is out. Montreal loses its leading scorer and top center, which cuts into the shot and faceoff edges above.
- The goalie gap is a coin flip. Fowler at .910 against Skinner at .912 is a wash. Dobes at .847 is a big downgrade, and Montreal hasn't said who starts.
- The special teams favor Winnipeg. A 22.2% power play against a 12.5% one offsets part of Montreal's even-strength edge.
The swing factor is the setting: outdoor ice and weather add variance that neither side has had to handle yet this season.
On the total, 5.5 with the over priced at -125 to -135 asks a lot of a Jets team scoring 2.60 a game. With the starters unknown, we're passing on that too.
