Analysis
Mammoth vs Penguins Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 19, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- SportsHub pick: Mammoth moneyline (-185). The model gives Utah a 66% win probability, just above the roughly 65% the market implies.
- Utah's power play leads the NHL at 35.3% (12 of 34), and Pittsburgh allows 3.56 goals per game.
- Pittsburgh has lost three straight, outscored 16-7, and is 1-4-1 on the road.
- Expected Penguins starter Arturs Silovs is at .875 and has allowed five goals in three of five starts.
The Utah Mammoth (6-3-0) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (3-5-1) at Delta Center on Monday at 9 p.m. ET on Utah16 and SportsNet Pittsburgh. Utah is -185 to -189 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the puck line, with the total at 6.5 and the over juiced. The hook: a Utah power play converting 35.3% against a Pittsburgh team on a three-game skid with shaky goaltending. Pick: Mammoth moneyline (-185).
How these teams got here
Utah has 12 points from nine games and scores 3.67 goals per game, seventh in the NHL. The Mammoth have outshot opponents 272-206, which says the start isn't luck. The last week was a split with Edmonton: a 4-2 win in Edmonton on Thursday, then a 6-2 home loss on Saturday in which Karel Vejmelka was pulled after allowing five goals on 17 shots.
Pittsburgh arrives on a three-game losing streak, outscored 16-7: 5-3 at Chicago, 5-2 at Colorado and 6-2 at Vegas. The Penguins are 1-4-1 on the road and allow 3.56 goals per game, seventh-worst in the league. Their shot share is nearly even at 255-249, so the problem isn't only the volume. It's what gets through.
Utah's power play vs. a Pittsburgh team that keeps leaking goals
Utah's power play leads the league at 35.3% (12 of 34). Pittsburgh's penalty kill has held up at 83.3%, so this is a real test rather than a mismatch, but every penalty the Penguins take is a gamble. Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz have 11 points each, Dylan Guenther has four goals and nine points, and Mikhail Sergachev has been a point-per-game defenseman.
The goaltending matchup is where Pittsburgh is exposed. Arturs Silovs, the expected starter, is 3-2-0 with an .875 save percentage and has allowed five goals in three of his five starts, including 5 on 32 shots at Colorado on Friday. Sergei Murashov is 0-3-1 at .883. Vejmelka is 5-2-0 at .879 for Utah. Neither number is good, but Utah's shot edge means he should see less work.
Pittsburgh still has the names to punish a mistake. Evgeni Malkin has five goals and seven points, Erik Karlsson has nine points and Sidney Crosby has three goals and six points. Crosby scored twice in the loss at Chicago.
Pittsburgh's blue line is running short
The Penguins are missing defensemen Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk, both on injured reserve, and Samuel Girard is day-to-day after leaving Saturday's game. If Girard can't go, Pittsburgh is down three regular defensemen against the league's best power play. Forward Egor Chinakhov is also day-to-day, and Justin Brazeau remains on injured reserve.
Utah is without forward Michael Carcone (out, upper body, expected back around Nov. 1) and defenseman Maveric Lamoureux (injured reserve, shoulder). Neither is a top-line piece.
The Penguins did win the last meeting, 4-3 in Salt Lake City on March 14 after trailing by two.
Prediction: Mammoth moneyline (-185)
Mammoth moneyline, medium confidence. Five reasons:
- The model is above the market, barely. It gives Utah a 66% win probability; -185 to -189 implies about 65%. The edge is thin, so price matters: this is a play at -185, not a chase past -190.
- Shot share. Utah is +66 in shots through nine games; Pittsburgh is +6.
- Special teams. A 35.3% power play against a team allowing 3.56 goals per game.
- Goaltending. Silovs is at .875 and has given up five in three of five starts.
- Form. Pittsburgh has lost three straight and is 1-4-1 away from home.
Swing factor: Utah's own net and penalty kill. Vejmelka was chased on Saturday, and the Mammoth kill is just 73.3%, which leaves a path for Malkin, Crosby and Karlsson.
The total: with two goalies under .880 and Utah's power play, the game leans over 6.5, but the over is already priced at -125 to -130. We'd want a better number.
