Analysis
New York Rangers vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 19, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Rangers moneyline at -137. The model makes New York a 71% winner against a price that implies about 58%.
- The Rangers are 5-0-0 at Madison Square Garden; the Ducks are 3-0-0 on the road and 1-3-0 at home.
- Dylan Garand (.927, 1.81 GAA) has held the crease with Igor Shesterkin and Joonas Korpisalo on injured reserve.
- New York's 93.5% penalty kill meets Anaheim's 26.9% power play.
The New York Rangers (6-3-1) host the Anaheim Ducks (4-3-0) on Monday night at Madison Square Garden, with puck drop listed for 7 p.m. ET on MSG in New York and FOX LA+ in Anaheim. The Rangers sit between -137 and -143 on the moneyline across licensed books. The tension: New York is perfect at home but playing without Igor Shesterkin, and Anaheim has a power play that can punish anyone. Our pick: Rangers moneyline at -137.
How these teams got here
New York is 6-3-1 with 13 points, second in the Metropolitan Division, and the split tells the story. The Rangers are 5-0-0 at the Garden and 1-3-1 on the road. They have scored 28 and allowed 22, a +6 goal differential, and they come home off a 1-0 overtime loss in Columbus on Saturday in which Dylan Garand made 28 saves.
Anaheim is 4-3-0 with 8 points and a +1 differential (22 for, 21 against). The Ducks have been the reverse of New York: 3-0-0 on the road, 1-3-0 at Honda Center. They have dropped two straight, the latest a 4-2 home loss to Boston on Friday. Monday opens a four-game road trip that continues on Long Island on Tuesday, so Anaheim plays the first half of a back-to-back after crossing three time zones. The Ducks did get two days off; the Rangers had one.
Garand's run vs. Anaheim's power play
The biggest question in this game is the Rangers' crease, and so far the answer has been fine. With Shesterkin lost for the season, Garand is 3-2-1 with a 1.81 GAA, a .927 save percentage and a shutout, and he is the projected starter again. In front of him, New York allows just 2.2 goals per game, fourth-fewest in the league.
Anaheim's projected starter, Lukas Dostal, has had a harder start: 3-3-0, 3.17 GAA, .881. He allowed four goals on 22 shots against Boston. Neither starter was confirmed as of Monday morning, and Ville Husso is the other option for the Ducks.
The Ducks' answer is special teams. Their power play runs at 26.9%, and Leo Carlsson (2 goals, 7 assists) drives it. Beckett Sennecke has 5 goals. That unit runs into the Rangers' best weapon: a penalty kill at 93.5%, second in the NHL, that has allowed two power-play goals on 31 chances. If New York stays out of the box, or kills what it takes, Anaheim loses its most efficient path to goals.
At even strength, the Rangers lean on Alexis Lafreniere, who leads the team with 7 goals and 11 points, and Adam Fox, who has 9 assists. Mika Zibanejad has 8 points. New York doesn't shoot much (23.4 shots per game), so its edge comes from limiting chances at the other end rather than outshooting people.
The goalie injuries shape everything
New York's injury list runs through the crease. Shesterkin (knee) and Joonas Korpisalo (lower body) are both on injured reserve, which leaves Garand and Spencer Martin. That is why this price is a short -137 for a team that has won all five home games, and it is the main risk to the pick. Up front, center Joe Veleno is also on IR.
Anaheim's absences hit its forward depth. Troy Terry (hip) and Ryan Poehling (lower body) are on IR, as is defenseman Ian Moore. Mikael Granlund, who has 8 points in 6 games, is day-to-day with an upper-body injury; he missed Friday but practiced Saturday. If Granlund can't go, the Ducks lose a top-unit power-play piece, which matters against this penalty kill.
Prediction: Rangers moneyline (-137)
The SportsHub model makes New York a 71% winner. At -137 the market implies about 58%, so the gap is wide enough to play the favorite on the moneyline.
- Home form. The Rangers are 5-0-0 at the Garden; Anaheim's 3-0-0 road mark is real, but all five New York home wins came by two goals or more.
- Goals against. New York allows 2.2 per game to Anaheim's 3.0, and Garand's .927 tops Dostal's .881 by a wide margin.
- Penalty kill vs. power play. A 93.5% kill is the best answer to Anaheim's 26.9% power play.
- Schedule. Anaheim starts a four-game trip with a back-to-back on Long Island waiting Tuesday.
Swing factor: a backup-turned-starter in net. If Garand regresses toward league average, the Ducks have the forwards to make this a coin flip.
On the total: 6.5 with the under priced between -120 and -125. Rangers games have averaged 5.0 total goals, but four of Anaheim's seven games landed on exactly six. We see the under as the right side, not a play at that price.
