Analysis
San Jose Sharks vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 19, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Toronto a 56% winner at low confidence, below the roughly 58.5% implied by -141.
- Toronto's power play converts 26.7% and its penalty kill has allowed one goal in 28 chances.
- San Jose is 4-3-1 with a -7 goal differential; all four wins came in overtime or a shootout.
- Toronto has lost three straight and lost John Tavares (IR) on Thursday.
The San Jose Sharks (4-3-1) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (3-4-2) on Monday at Scotiabank Arena, with puck drop listed for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports California and Sportsnet+. Toronto is priced between -141 and -145 on the moneyline across licensed books. The hook: the Leafs have the better special teams and the home ice, but they have lost three straight and just lost John Tavares. No edge: our model's 56% on Toronto doesn't beat the price.
How these teams got here
Toronto is 3-4-2 with 8 points and has dropped three in a row. Thursday's 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo cost them Tavares, and Saturday's 4-1 home loss to the Islanders followed. The Leafs have scored 29 goals but allowed 3.56 per game, and the problem is clear in the save numbers: an .883 team save percentage.
San Jose is 4-3-1 with 9 points, but the record flatters the process. The Sharks have scored 22 and allowed 29, a -7 goal differential, and their four wins all came in overtime or a shootout. They closed Saturday with a 4-3 shootout loss in Detroit and won a 3-2 shootout in Nashville before that. Both teams played Saturday, and both play again Tuesday: the Sharks in Montreal, the Leafs in Columbus.
Special teams vs. goaltending
This matchup comes down to whether Toronto's special teams can cover for its goaltending.
On the power play, the Leafs convert 26.7% (8 goals on 30 chances). Their penalty kill has allowed one goal on 28 times shorthanded, a 96.4% rate. San Jose's power play is respectable at 23.1% (6 for 26), but its penalty kill sits at 80.8%. If this game gets called tight, Toronto has the clear advantage.
At even strength, it's closer. Toronto takes far more shots (252 to San Jose's 221) and shoots 11.5%, but has allowed 264 shots. San Jose's team save percentage is .873, even worse than Toronto's.
The crease is the uncertainty. Projected starters as of Monday morning, neither confirmed:
- Alex Nedeljkovic (SJ): 2-0-1, 2.20 GAA, .920. Yaroslav Askarov (2-3-0, 3.99, .848) is the alternative.
- Anthony Stolarz (TOR): 2-1-0, 3.31 GAA, .875. Sergei Bobrovsky (1-3-2, 3.29, .891) started Saturday.
Nedeljkovic has the best numbers of the four goalies in this game. If he starts, San Jose gets its best version; if it's Askarov, the matchup tilts toward Toronto's shooters.
Tavares out, Tanev still sidelined
The Leafs' injury list is the bigger story. Tavares is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, out week to week after he had 7 points (2 goals, 5 assists) in 7 games. That takes a veteran center out of a lineup that has leaned on its special teams. Veteran defenseman Chris Tanev is also on IR, which thins out a penalty kill that has been nearly perfect. Miles Wood is out as well.
San Jose's absences are mostly depth. Forwards Quentin Musty and Adam Gaudette are on IR, as is goalie Kyle Keyser.
Prediction: No edge on Sharks vs. Maple Leafs
The SportsHub model makes Toronto a 56% winner with low confidence. At -141, the market already implies about 58.5%, so there's no gap to play. The case for each side:
- Toronto's special teams. A 26.7% power play and a kill that has allowed one goal in 28 chances is the biggest single edge in this game.
- San Jose's goal differential. At -7 with all four wins past regulation, the Sharks have been more lucky than good.
- Toronto's slide. Three straight losses, 3.56 goals allowed per game and no Tavares.
- The goalie draw. Nedeljkovic's .920 against Stolarz's .875 favors San Jose if both start.
Swing factor: who starts in the San Jose crease. A Nedeljkovic start makes the Sharks live at plus money; an Askarov start shifts it to Toronto.
On the total: 6.5, with the over between -130 and -137. Two teams with sub-.885 save percentages and a strong Toronto power play point to goals, but at that price the over is a lean, not a play.
