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Analysis
Flyers vs Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 19, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- SportsHub pick: Avalanche moneyline (-238). The model gives Colorado an 80% win probability, above the roughly 70% the market implies.
- Colorado scores 4.50 goals per game, second in the NHL; Philadelphia scores 1.40, last in the league.
- Colorado averages 30.8 shots per game to Philadelphia's 21.2, and its power play (20.7%) doubles the Flyers' (10.3%).
- Philadelphia is without Konecny, York and Ristolainen; Tippett, Couturier and Foerster are day-to-day.
The Colorado Avalanche (5-2-1) visit the Philadelphia Flyers (1-6-3) at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Monday at 7 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia and Altitude. Colorado is -233 to -244 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the puck line, and the total sits at 6 or 6.5 depending on the book. The hook: the NHL's No. 2 offense at 4.50 goals per game against its lowest-scoring team at 1.40. Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-238).
How these teams got here
Colorado has 11 points from eight games and comes in off a 5-2 home win over Pittsburgh on Friday. Artturi Lehkonen scored twice that night and Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 29 of 31. The Avalanche have 36 goals already, and four of their five wins have come by two goals or more. Nathan MacKinnon and Lehkonen share the team lead with eight goals each.
Philadelphia finally got off the mat on Saturday, beating Ottawa 3-1 for its first win after an 0-6-3 start. Dan Vladar made 25 saves on 26 shots. One good night doesn't fix the season, though. The Flyers have 14 goals in 10 games, the fewest in the East, and they've allowed 34, tied for the most in the conference. They've scored two or fewer in nine of their 10 games.
The schedule is the one thing working for the home side. Colorado plays at New Jersey on Tuesday, so this is the front end of a back-to-back, while Philadelphia has had a day off since the Ottawa game.
Colorado's volume against a Flyers team that can't get set
The shot counts tell the story. Colorado averages 30.8 shots per game; Philadelphia averages 21.2. MacKinnon drove Friday's win with a goal, three assists and nine shots in almost 23 minutes, and he's expected back between Lehkonen and Martin Necas on the top line. Behind them, Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri give Colorado a second line most teams would play first.
Special teams widen the gap. Colorado's power play converts at 20.7%; Philadelphia's sits at 10.3%. Matvei Michkov leads the Flyers with four goals and five points, and Christian Dvorak and Trevor Zegras have four points each. That's the whole of the threat.
In goal, Blackwood is the projected starter for Colorado. His season numbers are ordinary (4-2-0, .890), but he's won his last two starts at .929 and owns this opponent: 11-3-2 with a .917 save percentage in 16 career games against Philadelphia. Vladar is expected for the Flyers at .889 through five starts, and he's 2-4 with an .887 career mark against Colorado from his Calgary days. Neither start was confirmed Monday morning.
Philadelphia's injury list is the bigger problem
The Flyers are thin in exactly the spots they can't afford. Travis Konecny (lower body) is on injured reserve, and so are defensemen Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen. Owen Tippett missed Saturday with an upper-body injury and is day-to-day, as are Sean Couturier and Tyson Foerster. Tippett matters here: he had a hat trick in Philadelphia's 7-3 win in Denver in January, the last time these teams met.
Colorado has its own absences, but they're further down the lineup. Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux are out and Logan O'Connor is on injured reserve. The top six and the Cale Makar–Devon Toews pair are intact.
How the line has moved
Colorado opened around -225 and has moved to -233 to -244 across licensed books, with the puck line now near even money (+100 to +110). The total is split: 6 at some books, 6.5 at others, where the under carries the juice at -133 to -135.
Prediction: Avalanche moneyline (-238)
Avalanche moneyline, medium confidence. Five reasons:
- The model is above the market. It gives Colorado an 80% win probability; the licensed moneyline implies about 70% to 71%.
- Scoring gap. 4.50 goals per game against 1.40, second in the league against last.
- Shot volume. Colorado takes about nine and a half more shots per game than Philadelphia does.
- Blackwood vs. Philly. A .917 career save percentage and an 11-3-2 record in this matchup.
- Flyers health. Konecny, York and Ristolainen are out, and three more regulars are day-to-day.
Swing factor: the back-to-back. If Colorado coasts and Vladar repeats his Ottawa night, a team that has scored two or fewer nine times can steal one. They did it 7-3 in January.
The total: we pass. Philadelphia's scoring argues for the under, but Colorado can get to five on its own. If you want an angle, under 6.5 is a better number than under 6.
