Analysis
Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 25)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Panthers moneyline (-182), medium confidence. The model gives Florida 74% vs. roughly 64-65% implied by the market.
- Chicago ranks 30th in goals (2.20 per game), 31st in shots (21.4) and 31st on the power play (10.3%).
- Florida allows 24.4 shots per game (5th) but has given up nine straight goals and starts Akira Schmid (.867) with Markstrom on IR.
The Florida Panthers (5-4-2) visit the Chicago Blackhawks (3-7-0) at United Center on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (CHSN, Scripps, Sportsnet, TVA Sports). Florida is -179 to -185 on the moneyline, with the total at 6.5. The Panthers have allowed nine straight goals and turn to backup Akira Schmid in net, but Chicago scores less than almost anyone in the league. Our pick: Panthers moneyline (-182).
How these teams got here
Florida limps in. The Panthers lost 5-1 at Ottawa on Wednesday and 4-0 at Pittsburgh on Thursday, their first shutout of the season, and have given up nine straight goals. Paul Maurice said he is worried about "arrogance and softness" creeping into his team's game, per Field Level Media. Still, Florida is 3-3-2 on the road and has a -3 goal differential (31 for, 34 against). This is its first game since Thursday.
Chicago is worse on paper. The Blackhawks are 3-7-0 with six points, last in the Central, and they've been outscored 40-22. They've dropped two straight at home, 4-0 to Dallas and 4-1 to Montreal on Friday, and are 2-3-0 on a seven-game homestand. Friday followed a familiar script: Connor Bedard scored 4:23 in, then Montreal scored the next four, and Chicago didn't register a third-period shot until the 8:45 mark.
Florida's shot wall vs. Chicago's quiet sticks
This is the matchup that decides the game. Chicago averages 2.20 goals per game (30th) and 21.4 shots (31st), and its power play converts 10.3% (31st). Florida allows just 24.4 shots per game, fifth in the NHL, and kills 82.6% of penalties (12th).
At the other end, Florida generates 28.1 shots per game (14th) against a Chicago team that allows 30.3 (28th) and 4.00 goals per game (30th). Matthew Tkachuk leads Florida with 15 points (3 goals, 12 assists), Brady Tkachuk has a team-high 7 goals, and Seth Jones has 11 points from the back end. Chicago's leaders, Patrick Kane and Anton Frondell, have six points each.
The soft spot is Florida's crease. Maurice confirmed Akira Schmid starts: he is 2-2-1 with a 3.62 GAA and .867 save percentage. Chicago hadn't named a starter as of Saturday afternoon; Spencer Knight has started eight of 10 games (3-5-0, 3.52, .888). If the Blackhawks can't put pucks on Schmid, his numbers matter less.
Who's missing
Florida is short at the top of the lineup. Aleksander Barkov (lower body), Brad Marchand (leg) and Jacob Markstrom (upper body) are all on injured reserve. Maurice put Markstrom's absence at 10 to 14 days. Top defenseman Gustav Forsling is questionable after taking a puck to the face late Thursday; if he sits, Florida's shot suppression takes a hit.
Chicago will again be without defenseman Bowen Byram (upper body), who practiced Saturday in a noncontact jersey. Winger Andrew Mangiapane practiced and is expected to make his first appearance since the opener, which helps a forward group that badly needs finishing.
Prediction: Panthers moneyline (-182)
Panthers moneyline at -182, medium confidence. Why:
- The model has a real edge. It gives Florida a 74% win probability against the roughly 64-65% the licensed moneyline implies.
- Chicago can't create. It ranks 30th in goals and 31st in shots and power play, which matters against the league's fifth-best shot suppression.
- The shot gap is wide. Florida is +3.7 shots per game (28.1 for, 24.4 against); Chicago is -8.9 (21.4 for, 30.3 against).
- Goal differential. Florida's -3 through 11 games is noise next to Chicago's -18 through 10.
The risk: Schmid. A .867 save percentage behind a blue line that may be missing Forsling gives Chicago a puncher's chance, and Florida has to stop a two-game skid with three of its top names on IR.
On the total: 6.5 with the under priced at -114 to -120. Chicago's lack of shot volume points under, but Schmid's numbers and Chicago's 4.00 goals allowed keep us off it.
