Analysis
Red Wings vs Flames Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Detroit at 67%, but with Gibson and Tarasov both day-to-day, nobody knows who starts in the Red Wings' net.
- Calgary allows 4.22 goals per game and scores 2.11; Detroit allows 2.80 and scores 2.70.
- Special teams favor Calgary: a 26.1% power play against Detroit's 69.4% penalty kill.
- Detroit has points in six straight games (3-0-3), while Calgary has won two in a row at home.
The Detroit Red Wings (4-3-3) visit the Calgary Flames (3-6-0) at Scotiabank Saddledome on Saturday at 10:00 p.m. ET, on DSN in Detroit and Sportsnet in Canada. Detroit is -143 to -149 on the moneyline, Calgary +122 to +125. The model makes the Wings a 67% favorite, but their crease is a question mark: John Gibson and Daniil Tarasov are both day-to-day. No edge on this one.
Detroit is stingy, Calgary is leaky
Detroit has earned points in six straight games (3-0-3). The latest was Thursday's 5-2 win in Vancouver, where the Wings outshot the Canucks 31-13 and Lucas Raymond scored twice, once on the power play. On the season they allow just 25.6 shots and 2.80 goals per game.
Calgary opened 0-5 and allowed 27 goals in those five games. The Flames are 3-1 since, with back-to-back home wins: 3-2 over Carolina and 2-1 over Minnesota on Thursday. That last one wasn't pretty. The Wild outshot Calgary 39-22, and both Flames goals came on the power play.
The season numbers still favor Detroit by a distance. Calgary scores 2.11 goals per game and allows 4.22. Detroit is at 2.70 for and 2.80 against. Both teams played Thursday and were off Friday, so rest is even.
The crease and the special teams
This is where the 67% gets shaky. Gibson left Thursday's game after two periods with what the team called an upper-body injury. Tarasov was already out with an undisclosed injury, so Detroit recalled Michal Postava from Grand Rapids, and he stopped 7 of 8 shots in relief in his NHL debut.
As of Saturday morning, Daily Faceoff projects Gibson to start, unconfirmed. His numbers are rough anyway: 3.35 GAA, .871 save percentage. Tarasov has been the hot hand at 1.40 and .940 in four appearances. If Postava gets his first NHL start, this is a very different game.
Calgary's projected starter is Devin Cooley (2-2-0, 3.26 GAA, .900), also unconfirmed. Dustin Wolf has struggled at 1-4-0 with a 4.85 GAA and .834.
Special teams cut against Detroit. Calgary's power play is converting 26.1%, while Detroit's penalty kill sits at 69.4%. The other way, Detroit's 22.2% power play meets a Calgary kill at 83.9%. Alex DeBrincat leads Detroit with 12 points (6 goals). Calgary's top scorers are Morgan Frost, Matt Coronato and Joel Farabee at 6 points each.
Who's missing
Detroit is without centers Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton (both on injured reserve), and defenseman Simon Edvinsson remains on the non-roster list in a contract dispute. The goalie situation is the one that matters for tonight.
Calgary is missing Jonathan Huberdeau (hip, IR) and Samuel Honzek (IR), and Mikael Backlund is day-to-day. That thins an attack that already ranks among the league's least productive at 2.11 goals per game.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. On paper Detroit is the better team, but the price already reflects that, and the crease is unsettled.
- Model vs. market: the model's 67% for Detroit is above the 59%–60% implied by -143 to -149. That gap assumes a normal goalie for Detroit, and there may not be one.
- Goaltending: Gibson (.871) is banged up, Tarasov (.940) is day-to-day, and the fallback is a goalie with one NHL relief appearance.
- Special teams: a 26.1% power play against a 69.4% penalty kill is Calgary's clearest path.
- Five-on-five control: Detroit allows 25.6 shots per game to Calgary's 30.7, which is why the Wings are favored at all.
Swing factor: if Gibson or Tarasov is confirmed healthy before puck drop, Detroit's case firms up. If Postava starts, Calgary at plus money gets interesting.
On the total: books are split between 5.5 and 6.5. Calgary games have averaged about 6.3 total goals and Detroit games about 5.8. The over 5.5 is juiced to -128 to -135, so we're not chasing it.
