Analysis
Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Utah at 58%, and the -142 to -145 moneyline already implies about 59%.
- Utah's power play leads the NHL at 38.5%; Tampa's penalty kill ranks 20th at 77.8%.
- Tampa Bay is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 6-3 loss in Colorado, and is 2-3 on the road.
- Tampa allows 2.90 goals per game to Utah's 3.27, and Utah's team save percentage is .856.
The Utah Mammoth (7-4-0) host the Tampa Bay Lightning (7-3-0) Saturday at 9 p.m. ET at Delta Center in Salt Lake City (Utah16, Mammoth+, The Spot). Utah is -142 to -145 on the moneyline and the total sits at 6.5. The tension: the NHL's best power play against a Tampa team on the second night of a back-to-back. Our call: no edge. The model has Utah at 58%, and the market already prices that in.
How these teams got here
Utah sits atop the Central Division, tied with Minnesota at 14 points through 11 games. The Mammoth score 3.73 goals per game (7th in the NHL) but give up 3.27 (tied for 21st), so their games run hot: 7.0 total goals a night on average. They're 3-1 at home, and Thursday's 5-3 loss at Seattle was a strange one: Utah outshot the Kraken 36-23, went 2-for-3 on the power play, got two goals from Logan Cooley and still lost.
Tampa Bay is the tighter team. The Lightning allow 2.90 goals per game (tied for 9th) and score 3.40 (10th). But they're 2-3 on the road, all three losses in regulation, and they arrive straight from Denver. Colorado beat them 6-3 on Friday, ending a three-game winning streak; Jake Guentzel scored twice in the loss.
Special teams decide this one
This is the cleanest mismatch on the board. Utah's power play is converting at 38.5%, first in the league. Tampa's penalty kill sits at 77.8% (20th). Flip it around and Utah's weakness shows: the Mammoth kill only 66.7% (tied for 29th). Tampa can't cash in, though, with a 13.5% power play (27th).
At five-on-five, Utah controls the puck. The Mammoth average 30.6 shots for and 22.7 against, and they win 53.4% of their faceoffs. Tampa is at 30.2 for, 24.2 against and 49.7% on draws.
Clayton Keller leads Utah with 14 points. Nick Schmaltz and Mikhail Sergachev have 13 each, and Sergachev has 6 points in his last five games. Tampa's attack runs through Brandon Hagel (13 points, 3 goals in the last five) and Nikita Kucherov (13 points). Kucherov's 1,137 career points tie Steven Stamkos for the franchise lead. Brayden Point has 5 assists in his last five.
In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy (5-3-0, 2.78 GAA, .884) faced Colorado on Friday, and Daily Faceoff projects Dennis Hildeby (2-0-0, 2.01, .920) for the back end of the back-to-back. That start isn't confirmed. Karel Vejmelka (5-3-0, 3.04, .874) projects for Utah, also unconfirmed. Utah's team save percentage of .856 is the soft spot that keeps Tampa live.
Who's missing
Victor Hedman is listed day-to-day with an undisclosed issue, and Yanni Gourde (hip) is on IR for Tampa. Without the 35-year-old Hedman, Tampa's blue line would be thinner against the league's top power play, so his status at warmups matters more than any other note on this game.
Utah is listed day-to-day on John Marino (upper body). Maveric Lamoureux (shoulder) and Michael Carcone (upper body) are on IR. Marino's status trims Utah's blue-line depth, and that defense is already allowing more than three goals a game.
Prediction: No edge on Mammoth vs Lightning
No edge. The reasons:
- The price is right. The model gives Utah 58%; the -142 to -145 moneyline implies about 59%. There's nothing left to take.
- Utah's power play is real. 38.5% against a 77.8% kill is the biggest edge in the game, and the market knows it.
- The schedule favors Utah. Tampa plays its second game in two nights, and it's 2-3 on the road.
- Tampa defends better. 2.90 goals allowed to Utah's 3.27, with Utah's goalies at .856 as a team.
Swing factor: Utah's 66.7% penalty kill. If Tampa's dormant power play wakes up, this flips fast.
The total: 6.5, with the over priced at -115 to -120. Utah's games average 7.0 goals and Tampa's 6.3. That's not a strong enough split to back either side.
