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Analysis
Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Rangers moneyline at -149 (high confidence). The model has New York at 72%, against roughly 57–58% in the no-vig market.
- The Rangers are 7-2-0 at Madison Square Garden; the Flyers are 1-5-1 on the road.
- Philadelphia scores a league-worst 2.18 goals per game and faces the NHL's No. 1 penalty kill (90.4%).
- Dylan Garand starts with Shesterkin and Korpisalo both on IR; he's at .927 at home per the club.
The Philadelphia Flyers (4-9-4) visit the New York Rangers (8-7-1) at Madison Square Garden on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET (MSG, NBC Sports Philadelphia, ESPN+). New York sits at -148 to -154 on the moneyline with the total at 5.5. The tension: the Rangers have been a different team at home (7-2-0), and the Flyers bring the NHL's worst offense (2.18 goals per game) into the building. Our pick: Rangers moneyline (-149).
How these teams got here
The Rangers' season splits cleanly down the middle. At MSG they're 7-2-0, tied for the league lead in home wins, with a 2.33 goals-against average there per the club. Away from Manhattan they're 1-5-1. They also needed Tuesday's 3-1 win over St. Louis to snap a four-game slide that included 7-4 in Ottawa and 6-3 to Los Angeles. Overall they're +1 in goal differential (48-47) and third in the Metropolitan.
Philadelphia is last in the Metro and 30th in the league in points. The Flyers have scored 37 goals and allowed 58, a -21 differential, and they're 1-5-1 on the road, with the lone win a 3-1 decision in Buffalo on Oct. 21. They split their last two at home: a 6-3 win over Utah on Sunday, then a 4-2 loss to Minnesota on Tuesday.
Both teams last played Tuesday, so neither is on a back-to-back. New York heads out on a four-game Western road trip after this one.
The Rangers' kill against a Flyers attack that can't get shots
This one tilts on volume and special teams. Philadelphia averages just 23.4 shots per game (30th) and allows 29.3 (26th). Its power play converts 16.7% (26th), and it runs into the NHL's best penalty kill: the Rangers are 47-for-52 (90.4%).
New York isn't a shooting machine either, at 25.3 shots per game (28th), so expect a grind. But the Rangers have the finishers. Adam Fox has 19 points (2G-17A), tied for third among NHL defensemen. Alexis Lafrenière leads the team with 9 goals and has a point in 10 of his last 13 games. J.T. Miller (12 points) is winning 57.4% of his draws. For the Flyers, Matvei Michkov has 10 goals, 5 on the power play, and Trevor Zegras leads them with 14 points.
In goal, Dylan Garand has started the Rangers' last two and is 5-6-1 with a 2.57 GAA and .905 save percentage. At home, the club has him at 1.97 and .927. Daily Faceoff projects Joseph Woll for Philadelphia (unconfirmed): 1-5-2, 3.13, .899. Dan Vladar, who started the last two, is 3-4-2, 3.21, .883.
The Rangers' crease is running thin
The biggest absence is in New York's net. Igor Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Joonas Korpisalo (foot) is on IR too. That makes Garand the workhorse, with depth goalies James Reimer, signed in late October, and Spencer Martin behind him. If Garand falters, the drop-off is steep: Reimer allowed three goals on eight shots in his one start.
Defenseman Sean Durzi is day-to-day, and center Joe Veleno remains on IR. Philadelphia is without defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen (hand), which thins a blue line already allowing 29.3 shots a night. Winger Nikita Grebenkin (back) is also on IR.
Prediction: Rangers moneyline
Rangers moneyline (-149). Our model makes New York a 72% favorite. The licensed market prices them around 57–58% once the vig comes out.
- Home vs. road: the Rangers are 7-2-0 at MSG; Philadelphia is 1-5-1 away.
- Offense mismatch: the Flyers' 2.18 goals per game ranks 32nd, and 23.4 shots a night won't stress Garand.
- Special teams: the No. 1 penalty kill (90.4%) against a 26th-ranked power play (16.7%) shuts Philly's likeliest path. Half of Michkov's 10 goals have come with the man advantage.
- Goaltending: Garand's .927 at home outclasses Woll's .899 and Vladar's .883.
- Defense: New York allows 2.94 goals a game (9th); Philadelphia allows 3.35 (21st).
The risk is the Rangers' own attack. At 25.3 shots per game they can let weaker teams hang around, and they lost four straight before Tuesday. A single shaky night from Garand would expose the thin depth behind him.
On the total, the teams combine for about 5.2 goals per game against a 5.5 with the over juiced to -120 to -130. We pass on the total.
