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Analysis
Dallas Stars vs Columbus Blue Jackets Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Dallas Stars moneyline at -127 (medium). The model has Dallas at 60%; the best licensed price implies about 55.9%.
- Special teams gap: Dallas kills 90.0% (2nd) and scores on 23.5% of power plays (10th); Columbus is 24th in both (17.1% PP, 72.5% PK).
- Projected goalies: Jake Oettinger (1.91 GAA, .909) vs Cam Talbot (2.70, .901), both unconfirmed.
- Watch Miro Heiskanen (upper body, day-to-day) and Columbus's back-to-back at Buffalo on Friday.
The Dallas Stars (9-5-1) visit the Columbus Blue Jackets (6-7-0) on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 7 PM ET at Nationwide Arena (Blue Jackets Hockey Network; Prime Video on the Dallas feed). Licensed books have Dallas between -127 and -135, with the total at 5.5. The Stars beat Columbus 3-1 just six days ago, but Miro Heiskanen is day-to-day. Our call: Stars moneyline (-127), medium confidence.
How these teams got here
Dallas is 7-3-0 in its last 10 and has won two straight, the latest a wild 6-5 win in Washington on Tuesday in which Jason Robertson scored three goals in 5:20 of the second period. The Stars are 4-1-1 on the road. Their identity is defense: 2.33 goals allowed per game (3rd in the NHL) and only 22.5 shots against per game (2nd). The offense is middling at 2.87 goals per game (24th).
Columbus is 4-6-0 in its last 10 but comes in off its best night of the season, a 7-2 home rout of Colorado on Tuesday behind four points from Charlie Coyle. Nationwide Arena has been kind (5-3-0 at home, 1-4-0 on the road). The Jackets score 2.69 per game (27th) and allow 3.15 (16th). They also face a quick turnaround: Columbus plays in Buffalo on Friday, so this is the front end of a back-to-back. Dallas has no game Friday.
The last meeting was Oct. 31 in Dallas: Stars 3-1, with Jake Oettinger stopping 24 of 25.
Special teams and the crease
This is where the gap lives. Dallas kills 90.0% of its penalties (2nd) and converts 23.5% of its power plays (10th). Columbus sits 24th in both, at 17.1% on the power play and 72.5% on the kill. In a game priced this close, a 17.5-point gap on the penalty kill is a swing every time the Jackets go to the box.
In net, Daily Faceoff projects Oettinger and Cam Talbot, both unconfirmed as of Wednesday night. Oettinger is 8-3-1 with a 1.91 GAA, a .909 save percentage and three shutouts. Talbot is 4-2-0 with a 2.70 GAA and a .901, and he stopped 27 of 29 against Colorado. If Columbus saves Talbot for Buffalo, Jet Greaves (2-5-0, 3.11, .883) would get the call, and that tilts this further toward Dallas.
Up front, Robertson and Mikko Rantanen share the team lead with 18 points each (8 goals, 10 assists), with Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston at 13. For Columbus, Coyle (3-10-13) and Kent Johnson (7-6-13) lead the way, and Zach Werenski has 12 assists from the back end. Dallas also wins the dot more than anyone: 55.9% on faceoffs, 1st in the league.
The Heiskanen question
Heiskanen left Tuesday's game in the second period with an upper-body injury, and the Stars listed him as day-to-day on Wednesday. Coach Gulutzan said the team was hoping "it's not as serious as we first thought." Heiskanen has 11 points (3 goals, 8 assists), the most of any Dallas defenseman, so his status is the biggest swing variable on the board.
Dallas is also without Matt Duchene (core surgery, out about three months), Oskar Back (long-term injured reserve) and Kyle Capobianco (injured reserve). Columbus has no one on ESPN's injury report.
Prediction: Stars moneyline (-127)
Pick: Dallas Stars moneyline at -127, medium confidence. The model gives Dallas a 60% win probability; the best licensed price, -127, implies about 55.9%.
- Special teams: a 90.0% penalty kill (2nd) against a 17.1% Columbus power play (24th), and a 23.5% Dallas power play against a 72.5% kill.
- Goaltending: Oettinger's 1.91 GAA and .909 against Talbot's 2.70 and .901, or Greaves's 3.11 and .883.
- Shot suppression: Dallas allows 22.5 shots per game (2nd); Columbus generates 25.5 (25th).
- Schedule and form: Dallas is 7-3-0 in its last 10 and won the Oct. 31 meeting 3-1; Columbus has to play in Buffalo the next night.
The risk: Heiskanen. If he sits, the Dallas blue line gets thinner, and Columbus has been a different team at home (5-3-0). The Stars' 24th-ranked offense also keeps games close, so a one-goal finish is the likely script.
The total: 5.5, with the over shaded to -115 to -120. Dallas games are averaging 5.3 total goals and Columbus games 5.9. No play on the total.
