Analysis
New Jersey Devils vs St. Louis Blues Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 5)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Devils moneyline (-200). The model gives New Jersey 72% at medium confidence, above the ~66% implied by the best licensed price.
- New Jersey outshoots opponents 32.7 to 24.5 per game, both top-four marks; St. Louis ranks 19th and 21st.
- The Devils' penalty kill is 29th at 67.6%, while St. Louis kills 84.6% (6th). Special teams are the Blues' path.
- New Jersey is 7-2-0 at home; St. Louis is 3-5-0 on the road.
The New Jersey Devils (10-5-0) host the St. Louis Blues (7-7-1) at Prudential Center on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (MSG Sportsnet, Blue Note+, ESPN+). New Jersey sits at -196 to -204 on the moneyline after opening at -180, with the total at 5.5 or 6 depending on the book. The Devils win the shot battle by a mile, but a bottom-four penalty kill keeps the door open for St. Louis. Our pick: Devils moneyline (-200).
How these teams got here
New Jersey is 8-2-0 in its last 10 and 7-2-0 at home. The Devils have won two straight, most recently a 4-3 shootout win over Edmonton on Tuesday in which Jack Hughes scored twice. Their last road trip went 2-1: a 5-1 win at Dallas, a 5-2 loss at Colorado and a 5-2 win at Vegas. On the season they score 3.4 goals per game (11th) and allow 2.87 (7th).
St. Louis has been a .500 team in every sense: 7-7-1 overall, 5-5 in its last 10, 3-5-0 on the road. The Blues were shut out in back-to-back home games by Carolina (4-0) and Montreal (2-0), bounced back with a 4-1 win over Boston and a 5-4 win at Detroit, then lost 3-1 at the Rangers on Tuesday. They score 3.0 per game (19th) and allow 3.0 (11th).
Both teams were off Wednesday, so there's no back-to-back on either side.
Shot volume vs. the Blues' special teams
This is where the Devils pull away. New Jersey takes 32.7 shots per game (2nd in the NHL) and allows just 24.5 (4th). St. Louis is 19th in shots for (26.9) and 21st in shots against (28.2). That's an eight-shot cushion for New Jersey on a normal night, before score effects.
Jack Hughes drives it with 8 goals and 11 assists (19 points). Arseny Gritsyuk has 8 goals, Jesper Bratt has 13 points, and Nico Hischier has 4 power-play goals. For St. Louis, Dylan Holloway leads with 12 points, Jimmy Snuggerud has 8 goals and Mason McTavish has 6.
The catch is special teams. New Jersey's penalty kill is 67.6% (29th), and its power play is only 19.1% (21st). St. Louis kills 84.6% (6th) and converts 20.5% (19th). If this game turns into a parade to the box, the Blues' best path opens up.
In goal, Joel Hofer has started St. Louis' last three games and owns the better numbers (6-4-1, 2.39 GAA, .918) next to Jordan Binnington (1-3-0, 4.11, .846). Connor Hellebuyck has started New Jersey's last two and is 3-0-0 with a 1.95 GAA and .900 since joining the Devils. Jake Allen is 5-3-0 with a 3.11 GAA and .887. Neither starter was confirmed Thursday morning, and Daily Faceoff's early projection had Allen in New Jersey's crease.
The Blues' blue line is thin
St. Louis is short on defensemen. Colton Parayko is day-to-day with an upper-body injury picked up this week, Logan Mailloux went on injured reserve with a hand injury on Nov. 2, Tyler Tucker (knee) is on IR, and Torey Krug (ankle) is out for the season. Center Dillon Dube (neck) is also on IR.
New Jersey's only listed absence is young defenseman Seamus Casey (knee, IR). Against a team that already gives up 28 shots a night, losing the 6-foot-6 Parayko would make the shot gap worse.
How the line has moved
The Devils opened at -180 and are now -196 to -204, with St. Louis at +164 to +170. The puck line pays +125 to +136 on New Jersey -1.5. Most books hang 5.5 on the total with the over at -135 to -139, while a couple sit at 6.
Prediction: Devils moneyline
The model gives New Jersey 72% at medium confidence. The best licensed price, -196, implies 66.2%, and the no-vig market is closer to 64-65%. Even after the move, the number still trails the model.
- Shots: 32.7 for and 24.5 against are both top-four marks; St. Louis ranks 19th and 21st.
- Venue: New Jersey is 7-2-0 at home; St. Louis is 3-5-0 on the road.
- Form: 8-2-0 in the last 10 against 5-5.
- Depth on defense: the Blues are down Mailloux, Tucker and Krug, and Parayko is uncertain.
The swing factor: special teams and the crease. A 29th-ranked penalty kill against a top-six one is a real gap, and an Allen start (.887) makes the margin thinner than a Hellebuyck start would.
The total: Devils games have produced 95 goals in 15 games and Blues games 90, which puts both right around the number. There's no angle we'd play there.
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