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Analysis
Red Wings vs Golden Knights Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Vegas at 65% with low confidence, and the market already has the Knights near 57% (-145 to -152).
- Daniil Tarasov (.927, 1.74 GAA) likely starts with John Gibson (.860) questionable.
- Vegas' 29.4% power play (6th) faces Detroit's 70.0% penalty kill (25th).
- Detroit outshoots opponents (29.1 for, 24.7 against) but scores only 2.88 goals per game (24th).
The Vegas Golden Knights (10-5-2) visit the Detroit Red Wings (7-6-3) at Little Caesars Arena on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (DSN in Detroit, Scripps Sports in Vegas). Licensed books have Vegas between -145 and -152 and Detroit between +120 and +128, with the total at 5.5 or 6. The tension sits in Detroit's crease: John Gibson is questionable, and Daniil Tarasov has been the better goalie all season. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Vegas comes in at 22 points in 17 games, second in the Pacific, and this is the third stop of an Eastern swing. The Knights lost 3-2 in a shootout at Boston on Monday, then won 3-2 at Pittsburgh on Tuesday behind 23 saves from Adin Hill. They score 3.35 goals per game (12th in the NHL) and allow 2.82 (6th), and they're 4-2-2 on the road.
Detroit is last in the Atlantic with 17 points in 16 games, but the recent form is better than the standings: 6-3-1 in its last 10. The Wings won 5-3 at Florida on Monday and lost 4-2 at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. The issue is finishing. Detroit generates 29.1 shots per game (7th) and allows only 24.7 (6th), but converts that into just 2.88 goals per game (24th). They're 4-4-1 at home.
Both teams were off Wednesday, so nobody is on the second night of a back-to-back.
Vegas' top line against Detroit's best goalie
The Golden Knights' attack runs through Jack Eichel (22 points, 15 assists), Mark Stone (10 goals) and Mitch Marner (16 assists in 15 games). Tomas Hertl has five power-play goals, and Vegas' power play converts at 29.4% (6th). That's a problem for a Detroit penalty kill sitting at 70.0% (25th).
The counterweight is Daniil Tarasov: .927 save percentage and a 1.74 GAA in six appearances, with a shutout. Gibson, by contrast, is at .860 and 3.46. Daily Faceoff lists Tarasov against Carter Hart (.893, 2.65 GAA), both unconfirmed. Hart played in Boston and Hill in Pittsburgh, so Hart lines up as the natural choice.
Detroit's scoring comes from Alex DeBrincat (16 points, 7 goals), Lucas Raymond (16 points) and Viktor Arvidsson (8 goals, 4 on the power play). The Wings' power play (23.6%, 10th) gets a Vegas penalty kill that's only 73.9% (21st), so special teams could cut both ways.
Detroit's lineup holes
The bigger absence isn't an injury. Dylan Larkin was suspended by the club on Oct. 29 after telling the team he would no longer play for Detroit, and he's out until a trade is worked out. That leaves the Wings thin down the middle, with Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton both on injured reserve.
In goal, the NHL Status Report lists Gibson as questionable with a lower-body injury after he left Tuesday's loss following the first period. Coach Todd McLellan said Tarasov is in line for more playing time. Given the numbers, a Tarasov start isn't a downgrade for Detroit; it may be the opposite.
Vegas is without forward Victor Olofsson and defenseman Parker Wotherspoon, both on injured reserve and absent from Tuesday's win.
Prediction: no edge
The model has Vegas at 65%, but only at low confidence. The licensed moneyline already implies about 57% for the Knights once the vig is removed. We're passing:
- The goalie matchup leans Detroit. Tarasov's .927 is well ahead of Hart's .893 and Hill's .895.
- Vegas has the better finishers. It scores 3.35 goals a game to Detroit's 2.88, with the league's 6th-best power play against the 25th-ranked kill.
- Detroit controls the shot clock. It is 7th in shots for and 6th in shots against, while Vegas is 9th in both.
- Larkin's absence caps Detroit's ceiling, but the market already prices that in.
Swing factor: a late Gibson start. If Gibson goes instead of Tarasov, the case for Vegas gets stronger.
On the total: books split between 5.5 (over juiced to -130 to -135) and 6. Two leaky penalty kills point up, while Tarasov and Detroit's shot suppression point down. No play.
