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Analysis
Canadiens vs Mammoth Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 5, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Montreal at 54% vs a market near 47%, but only at low confidence, with Suzuki and Utah's starter unconfirmed.
- Jacob Fowler is 7-1-1 with a .925 save percentage; Utah's goalies sit at .872 to .875.
- Utah's power play is clicking at 36.4% (2nd); Montreal's is at 13.0% (30th).
- Utah outshoots opponents 30.3 to 24.8 per game; Montreal is outshot 28.9 to 27.1.
The Utah Mammoth (10-6-0) visit the Montreal Canadiens (9-3-3) at the Bell Centre on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (TSN2/RDS in Canada, Utah16/Mammoth+ in Utah, ESPN+). Utah is a short road favorite at -120 to -123, with Montreal +100 to +105 and the total at 6.5. The tension is simple: Utah's No. 2-ranked power play against Jacob Fowler's .925 save percentage, with Nick Suzuki's return still up in the air. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Montreal sits second in the Atlantic with 21 points and a 7-1-2 mark over its last 10. The Habs ripped off five straight wins (at Chicago, Winnipeg, St. Louis and Dallas, then 5-4 over Pittsburgh) before Tuesday's 5-4 overtime loss to the Jets, a night when Fowler faced 47 shots. They're 4-2-2 at home, scoring 3.33 goals per game (13th) and allowing 3.13 (15th).
Utah is second in the Central with 20 points and has no overtime losses yet: every game has been a win or a regulation loss. This is the fourth stop of a five-game trip. The Mammoth won 4-3 in overtime at Pittsburgh, got beat 6-3 in Philadelphia, then edged Toronto 3-2 on Tuesday behind 27 saves from Sebastian Cossa. They're 6-4-0 on the road, scoring 3.56 per game (7th) but allowing 3.38 (23rd).
Rest is a wash. Both teams last played Tuesday, and both play again Saturday (Montreal at Toronto, Utah at Ottawa).
Utah's power play vs. Montreal's goalie
The Mammoth drive this matchup on paper. They put 30.3 shots per game on net (4th) and allow just 24.8 (7th), while Montreal takes 27.1 (18th) and gives up 28.9 (23rd). Utah's power play is converting at 36.4% (2nd), with Nick Schmaltz (6 power-play goals) and Dylan Guenther (5) doing the damage. Clayton Keller leads the team with 21 points (17 assists), with Mikhail Sergachev at 19 and Logan Cooley at 17.
Montreal's counter is in net. Fowler is 7-1-1 with a 2.17 GAA, a .925 save percentage and two shutouts, and he's the main reason the Habs are winning games they're outshot in. Utah's tandem hasn't come close: Cossa is 4-1-0 with a .875 save percentage, and Karel Vejmelka is 6-5-0 with a .872 in 11 starts. Daily Faceoff lists Cossa and Fowler as the projected starters, neither confirmed.
Special teams cut the other way too. Montreal's power play is just 13.0% (30th), but Utah's penalty kill is 70.0% (25th), so something has to give. The Habs' kill sits at 81.7% (11th). Cole Caufield (10 goals) and Lane Hutson (14 points) carry the offense while Suzuki is out.
The Suzuki question
Suzuki has 12 points in 9 games and hasn't played since the club announced on Oct. 22 that he'd miss two to four weeks with a hand injury. He practiced with the team Wednesday, but Martin St-Louis said his availability for Thursday is uncertain, per Canadiens.com. He's listed day-to-day.
The depth chart is thin behind him. Kirby Dach (illness) is day-to-day, Ivan Demidov is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, defenseman Mike Matheson is out, and Sam Montembeault is on IR, which leaves Jakub Dobes (.853 in six starts) as Fowler's backup. Utah is without defenseman John Marino (IR), and Kailer Yamamoto is day-to-day.
A Suzuki return would shift the matchup in Montreal's favor at five-on-five. Without him, the Habs rely even more on Fowler.
Prediction: no edge
The model makes Montreal a 54% winner, while the licensed moneyline prices the Habs at roughly 47% after removing the vig. That gap points toward Montreal, but the model's confidence is low, so there's no headline pick here.
- Goaltending favors Montreal: Fowler's .925 against a Utah tandem at .872 to .875 is the biggest single gap in the game.
- Shot share favors Utah: the Mammoth outshoot opponents by about 5.6 per game; Montreal is minus-1.7.
- Special teams favor Utah: a 36.4% power play against a 13.0% one, even with Utah's leaky 70.0% kill.
- Recent form is close: Montreal is 7-1-2 in its last 10, Utah 6-4-0, and the Habs took both meetings last season (6-2 at home, 4-3 in Utah).
- The lineup is unresolved: Suzuki's status and Utah's starter could each move this line before puck drop.
The swing factor is Suzuki. If he's in, Montreal's case gets stronger; if Vejmelka starts instead of Cossa, little changes, since both sit near .870.
On the total of 6.5, Montreal games are averaging 6.6 goals and Utah games 6.9, but Fowler's numbers pull the other way. No play on the total either.
