Analysis
New York Rangers vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Rangers moneyline (+109), medium confidence. The model gives New York 60%; the market implies about 48%.
- Ottawa loses Linus Ullmark (.945) to IR; projected starter Samuel Ersson is 0-3-0 with an .835 save percentage.
- Rangers' penalty kill (91.7%, 2nd) meets Ottawa's power play (12.2%, 29th).
- The risk: New York is 1-4-1 on the road and 6-0-0 at home.
The New York Rangers (7-4-1) visit the Ottawa Senators (7-4-0) at 7:00 p.m. ET Saturday at Canadian Tire Centre, on NHL Network and MSG. Ottawa is a short home favorite at -125 to -130, with New York at +105 to +110. The catch: the Senators just lost Linus Ullmark (.945 save percentage) to injured reserve, and the projected fill-in, Samuel Ersson, sits at .835. Our pick: Rangers moneyline (+109).
How these teams got here
Both clubs arrive off a loss. The Rangers dropped a 5-4 decision in Toronto on Thursday after beating Anaheim 5-2 at home on Monday. Ottawa got hammered 6-2 by San Jose on Thursday, one night after a 5-1 win over Florida. Same day, Ullmark went on injured reserve.
The underlying numbers lean New York. The Rangers score 3.08 goals per game (15th) and allow 2.42 (4th), a +8 goal differential through 12 games. Ottawa scores 2.64 (24th) and allows 2.73 (7th), a +1 through 11. The Senators' defensive rank was built behind Ullmark's 7-1-0 run, and that is the part of the profile that just walked out the door.
The one real knock on the Rangers is the road. They are a perfect 6-0-0 at home and just 1-4-1 away, including a 7-1 loss in New Jersey and a 1-0 overtime loss in Columbus. Ottawa is 4-2-0 at Canadian Tire Centre.
The crease decides it
This game turns on the two goalies nobody penciled in as starters in September.
New York has been living without Igor Shesterkin, lost for the season with a right knee injury, and Joonas Korpisalo is also on injured reserve. Dylan Garand has carried the load: 4-3-1, 2.30 GAA, .915 in eight appearances. Not elite, but steady enough behind a team that allows 26.5 shots a night.
Ottawa's drop-off is steeper. Ullmark was 7-1-0 with a 1.33 GAA and .945 in eight starts. Ersson, projected to start, is 0-3-0 with a 4.59 GAA and .835 in five appearances. Starters were unconfirmed as of Saturday morning, but with Ullmark out the alternatives are thin.
Special teams pile on. The Rangers' penalty kill runs at 91.7%, tied for second in the league, while Ottawa's power play is 12.2%, 29th. New York's power play (20.0%) also outpaces Ottawa's penalty kill (78.0%, 19th). The Senators can't count on the man advantage to bail out a shaky crease.
Up front, Tim Stützle drives Ottawa with 7 goals and 15 points, with Drake Batherson next at 8 points. New York answers with Alexis Lafrenière (8 goals, 14 points) and Adam Fox (14 assists), with Mika Zibanejad at 11 points.
Who's missing and why it matters
Ullmark is the headliner. TSN reported a lower-body injury with a one-to-two-week timeline. Ottawa is also without defenseman Thomas Chabot (out, upper body) and forward William Eklund (injured reserve, ankle surgery). Losing Chabot thins the blue line in front of a backup goalie.
For New York, Shesterkin and Korpisalo are already priced in, and the team has gone 4-3-1 behind Garand. Eeli Tolvanen is day-to-day after missing Friday's practice for personal reasons. He is a depth piece, not a swing factor.
Prediction: Rangers moneyline
Our model gives the Rangers a 60% win probability at medium confidence. At +105 to +110, the market implies roughly 48%. That gap is the bet.
- Goaltending flipped. Ersson's .835 against Garand's .915 is an 80-point save-percentage gap, after Ottawa spent the season riding a .945 starter.
- Special teams mismatch. A 91.7% penalty kill against a 12.2% power play takes Ottawa's best equalizer away.
- Better goal differential. New York is +8 to Ottawa's +1, and allows 0.31 fewer goals per game.
- Thin Ottawa blue line. Chabot's absence leaves the backup with less help.
Risk: the Rangers' 1-4-1 road record is real, and Ottawa has shown it can win at home. If Ersson steadies, this is a coin flip.
Total: books are split between 5.5 (over juiced) and 6. With a backup in Ottawa's net and New York's stingy defense pulling the other way, we pass on the total.
