Analysis
Buffalo Sabres vs Washington Capitals Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Capitals moneyline (-127). The model gives Washington 69%, against roughly 55-56% implied by the licensed moneyline.
- Washington's 20.0% power play faces a Buffalo penalty kill at 66.7%, one of the league's worst.
- Logan Thompson is day-to-day, but Buffalo's goalies sit at .864, below Charlie Lindgren's .897.
The Washington Capitals (5-4-0) host the Buffalo Sabres (4-4-2) Saturday at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena, on MNMT and MSG-B. Washington sits at -125 to -128 on the moneyline, Buffalo at +105 to +107. The tension: Logan Thompson is day-to-day, so the Caps likely go with a backup. It still isn't enough to rescue Buffalo's special teams. Our pick: Capitals moneyline (-127).
How these teams got here
Both clubs have 10 points, but they got there very differently. Washington is 5-4-0 in nine games and 4-2-0 at home, scoring 3.33 goals per game while allowing 3.22. The Caps are coming off a sour one: a 5-2 loss to the Kings on Tuesday in which they blew a two-goal lead and gave up five straight.
Buffalo is 4-4-2 through 10 games and keeps needing extra time. Three of its last five games were one-goal games that went past regulation, and the run ended with a flat 3-1 home loss to the Flyers on Wednesday. The Sabres score 2.80 per game and allow 3.60, and they're 1-1-2 on the road.
Washington has had three days off since Tuesday; Buffalo had two since Wednesday. Neither side is on a back-to-back.
Special teams decide this one
This is where the gap opens. Washington's power play converts at 20.0% against a Buffalo penalty kill that has stopped only 66.7% of opponents' chances, one of the worst marks in the league. The other way, Buffalo's power play sits at 11.1% against a Caps kill at 80.0%.
Spencer Carbery shuffled his units Friday, splitting the talent across two groups: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Tuch, Ryan Leonard, Ilya Protas and Cole Hutson on one; Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson, Jordan Kyrou and Jakob Chychrun on the other. Leonard leads the team with 8 points (4 goals, 2 on the power play), and Tuch leads in goals with 5.
Tuch adds a storyline: it's his first game against Buffalo, where he scored 33 goals and 66 points in 79 games last season.
Buffalo's attack runs through Jack Quinn (5 goals, 10 points) and Tage Thompson (5 goals, 9 points), with Owen Power (8 points) driving play from the back end. That top group can score, and the Sabres have outshot opponents 26.9 to 25.8 per game without turning it into wins.
The goaltending question
Logan Thompson (4-3-0, 2.90 GAA, .901) has missed two straight practices with a lower-body injury, and Washington recalled Mitch Gibson from Hershey on Friday. Charlie Lindgren (1-1-0, 3.06 GAA, .897 in two starts) is the likeliest option. Neither starter was confirmed at publication.
That's a real downgrade, but the Buffalo crease is worse. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 3-3-2 with a 3.53 GAA and .864 save percentage, and Colten Ellis is also at .864 in three starts. Alex Lyon is on injured reserve.
Washington's lineup has holes too. Vincent Desharnais had an emergency appendectomy and is out four to six weeks, and Rasmus Sandin is on IR. Dubois (illness, five games missed) and Justin Sourdif (illness, two games missed) were both full participants Friday, with their status decided Saturday. Buffalo lists Jiri Kulich and Justin Danforth as day-to-day, with Sam Carrick, Conor Timmins and Matt Grzelcyk on IR.
Prediction: Capitals moneyline
Capitals moneyline (-127). Our model gives Washington a 69% win probability, well above the roughly 55-56% the licensed moneyline implies. The reasons:
- Special teams: a 20.0% power play against a 66.7% penalty kill is the biggest mismatch on the ice.
- Home ice: Washington is 4-2-0 at Capital One Arena; Buffalo is 1-1-2 on the road.
- Goals: the Caps allow 3.22 a game to Buffalo's 3.60 while scoring half a goal more.
- Goaltending floor: even Lindgren's .897 sits above both Buffalo goalies at .864.
The risk: if Thompson can't go and the Caps' backup has a bad night, Buffalo's top line has the finish to steal this, and the Sabres have lived in one-goal games.
On the total: the line is 6.5, and both teams' games have averaged about 6.4 to 6.6 goals. With two shaky creases, the over has a case, but the juice (as high as -122) leaves no value. We pass.
