Analysis
Blue Jackets vs Golden Knights Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Golden Knights moneyline (-141), medium confidence. The model gives Vegas 70% against roughly 57% to 58.5% implied by the market.
- Vegas scores 3.75 goals per game; Columbus scores 2.38 and has 14 goals in its last seven games.
- Power play: Vegas converts 25.0%, Columbus 8.7%.
- Swing factor: Vegas lost its last two 6-2, and Mitch Marner (personal) is day-to-day.
The Vegas Golden Knights (8-4-0) visit the Columbus Blue Jackets (3-5-0) at Nationwide Arena on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET (CBJHN in Columbus, Scripps Sports in Vegas). Vegas is a -133 to -141 road favorite, with Columbus at +112 to +120. The hook: the Knights have dropped two straight by a combined 12-4, and Mitch Marner is day-to-day. Our pick: Golden Knights moneyline (-141).
How these teams got here
Vegas was rolling until this week. Through 10 games the Knights were 8-2 and had outscored opponents 42-24. Then came back-to-back 6-2 losses: at home to Tampa Bay on Tuesday and in St. Louis on Thursday, the second one without Marner. Even after the skid, Vegas sits second in the Pacific with 16 points, scores 3.75 goals per game and is 3-2 on the road.
Columbus has the opposite problem: it can't score. After a 6-3 opening-night win over Buffalo, the Blue Jackets have 14 goals in seven games, and they've been held to one goal or fewer three times. They're last in the Metropolitan with a -9 goal differential and have lost two straight (2-1 at Minnesota, 6-2 to Toronto). All three wins came at Nationwide Arena, where they're 3-3.
Rest favors Columbus. The Jackets haven't played since Tuesday. Vegas played Thursday night in St. Louis and gets one day off before this one.
Vegas firepower vs. a Columbus attack stuck in neutral
Jack Eichel leads Vegas with 19 points (6 goals, 13 assists) in 12 games. Mark Stone has 8 goals and 15 points, five of those goals in the last five games. Tomas Hertl has three power-play goals for a unit that converts 25.0% of its chances. Vegas also tilts the ice: 30.0 shots for and 25.5 against per game.
Columbus spreads its offense thin. Charlie Coyle leads with 7 points, Zach Werenski and Cole Sillinger have 6 each, and Kent Johnson's 4 goals top the team. The power play is the real problem at 8.7%, and the Jackets generate 27.6 shots per game while allowing 27.8.
Where Columbus can push back is the Vegas penalty kill, which stops just 67.9% of chances, a shade worse than Columbus at 70.0%. If this turns into a parade to the box, the gap narrows. The Jackets also win 54.7% of their faceoffs to 51.1% for Vegas.
In goal, Daily Faceoff projects Carter Hart (4-3-0, 2.87 GAA, .888 SV%) for Vegas and Jet Greaves (2-3-0, 3.34 GAA, .883) for Columbus, both unconfirmed as of Saturday morning. Adin Hill (4-1-0, .882) is the other Vegas option, and Cam Talbot (1-2-0, .867) has three starts for Columbus.
Marner's status and a thin Columbus blue line
Marner missed Thursday's game for personal reasons and is listed day-to-day. He has 12 points in 11 games, including six assists over Vegas's last five, so his absence would pull a true playmaker out of the top six. Without him in St. Louis, Vegas scored twice. Defenseman Parker Wotherspoon is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury.
Columbus is still without Ivan Provorov, on injured reserve with a lower-body injury from the preseason; he hasn't played a game this season. That leaves more minutes for Werenski, Damon Severson and Denton Mateychuk on a team allowing 3.63 goals per game.
Prediction: Golden Knights moneyline
Golden Knights moneyline (-141), medium confidence. Our model gives Vegas a 70% win probability, while the licensed moneyline range of -133 to -141 implies roughly 57% to 58.5%.
- Scoring gap: 3.75 goals per game for Vegas against 2.38 for Columbus.
- Special teams: a 25.0% Vegas power play against an 8.7% Columbus unit.
- Shot share: Vegas outshoots opponents by 4.5 per game; Columbus is roughly even.
- Season body of work: Vegas has 16 points in 12 games, Columbus 6 in 8.
The risk is real: Vegas has allowed 12 goals in its last two, Marner is uncertain, and the Knights are on short rest against a team with three days off. A weak Vegas penalty kill keeps Columbus alive if the whistles pile up.
On the total, books sit between 6 and 6.5. Vegas games have averaged 6.8 total goals and Columbus games 6.1, with both penalty kills under 71%, but that isn't enough for a play. We pass on the total.
