Analysis
Devils vs Kings Prediction, Picks & Odds (Saturday, Oct 24)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Devils moneyline (-167), medium confidence. Our model has New Jersey at 67% vs about 62-64% implied by the books.
- New Jersey outshoots opponents 34.9 to 25.0 per game; the Kings are even at 29.0 to 29.5.
- The Kings' penalty kill is 63.0%, the worst in the NHL, against a 21.9% Devils power play.
- Hellebuyck was acquired Friday but isn't expected to debut today; Jake Allen (.883) is the likely Devils starter.
The New Jersey Devils (6-4-0) host the Los Angeles Kings (2-4-2) at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Prudential Center (MSGSN, ABTV, Sportsnet). New Jersey is -164 to -175 on the moneyline with the total at 5.5. The noise is all about Connor Hellebuyck, acquired from Winnipeg on Friday, but he isn't expected to play today. The edge is in the numbers that were already there: shot volume and a Kings penalty kill that can't get stops. Pick: Devils moneyline (-167).
How these teams got here
New Jersey closes a homestand riding a two-game win streak: 4-3 over Colorado on Tuesday and 4-1 over Anaheim on Thursday. The Devils are 4-1-0 in their last five and 5-2-0 at home, and they've outscored opponents 33-31 overall.
Los Angeles finally has a pulse. After an 0-4-2 start, the Kings won 5-2 in Washington and 3-2 in overtime on Long Island on Thursday. This is the third stop of the trip. Both teams had Friday off, so rest is even. Even with the two wins, the Kings have scored just 2.50 goals per game and allowed 3.63, a -9 goal differential through eight games.
Shot volume vs a leaky penalty kill
This is the matchup that decides it. New Jersey generates 34.9 shots per game and allows only 25.0, so most nights it tilts the ice by about 10 shots. Los Angeles is basically break-even on shots (29.0 for, 29.5 against) and has to win on finishing.
The Devils' top line is doing the damage. Jack Hughes leads the team with 11 points (3 goals, 8 assists). Jesper Bratt has 9, and Arseny Gritsyuk has scored in four straight games. Per the Devils' official preview, that group has combined for seven goals and 16 points over the past five games. Nico Hischier also has 5 goals.
Special teams lean hard to New Jersey. The Kings' penalty kill sits at 63.0%, the worst mark in the league, while the Devils' power play runs at 21.9%. LA's own power play is at 16.0%, and New Jersey's kill (72.0%) hasn't been much better, so this is the Kings' clearest path to staying close.
The Kings' threat is Artemi Panarin, with 6 goals and 9 points in eight games, including five points over the last two. Adrian Kempe (7 points), Brandt Clarke and Alex Laferriere (7 apiece) round out the scoring.
The goalie picture after the Hellebuyck trade
New Jersey sent Nico Daws, Dawson Mercer, Nick Bjugstad, a prospect and two picks to Winnipeg for Hellebuyck. He skipped training camp and hasn't played this season. DobberHockey doesn't expect him to debut today, and the team hasn't named a date. That leaves Jake Allen as the likely starter: he is 4-2-0 with a 3.15 GAA and .883 save percentage. That's ordinary, and it's the main reason this price isn't steeper.
The Kings haven't confirmed a starter. Darcy Kuemper has started six of eight (2-3-1, 3.55 GAA, .890), and Anton Forsberg is 0-1-1 with a 2.63 GAA and .883. DobberHockey's goalie tracker listed Forsberg as probable.
The skater injuries matter more to Los Angeles. Kevin Fiala (lower-leg fracture) and Alex Turcotte are on injured reserve, and Quinton Byfield is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. That thins out a lineup that already struggles to score. On New Jersey's side, defenseman Seamus Casey remains on IR after knee surgery.
Prediction: Devils moneyline (-167)
Our model gives New Jersey a 67% chance to win. The licensed books imply about 62-64%, so the price still leaves room. Pick: Devils moneyline (-167), medium confidence. Here's why:
- Shot share: the Devils' +9.9 shots-per-game margin vs the Kings' -0.5 is the biggest structural gap on the ice.
- Special teams: a 21.9% power play against the league's worst kill (63.0%).
- Home vs road form: New Jersey is 5-2-0 at home, and the Kings' two road wins came after an 0-4-2 start.
- Depth: LA is without Fiala and Turcotte, with Byfield questionable to go.
Risk: goaltending. Allen's .883 gives the Kings a chance if Panarin stays hot. The puck line (-1.5) pays more but needs a two-goal win.
Total: 5.5 with the over juiced (-125 to -133). Two sub-.890 goalies and a 63% penalty kill point up, but LA's 2.50 goals per game points down. We'd pass on the total.
