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Analysis
Avalanche vs Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 23, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Colorado at 56% with low confidence, barely above the roughly 54% the moneyline implies.
- Colorado scores 4.10 goals per game (2nd in the NHL); Tampa Bay allows 2.56 (6th).
- Tampa Bay is 7-1 since opening night but 2-2 on the road, and plays at Utah on Saturday.
- The total has climbed from 5.5 on Thursday to 6.5.
The Colorado Avalanche (5-4-1) host the Tampa Bay Lightning (7-2-0) on Friday, Oct. 23 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena, on Altitude and The Spot. Colorado sits at -125 to -133 on the moneyline, Tampa Bay at +105 to +112, with the total at 6.5. The hook: the NHL's No. 2 offense against a Lightning team that has won seven of eight. Our call: no edge — the model's 56% on Colorado barely clears the price.
How these teams got here
Tampa Bay lost its opener 5-1 at the Rangers and has gone 7-1 since, including a perfect 5-0 at home. The road has been more ordinary at 2-2, but the Lightning arrive on a three-game win streak after a 6-2 romp at Vegas on Tuesday. They have allowed just 2.56 goals per game, sixth-best in the league, and give up only 24.2 shots a night.
Colorado is the opposite profile. The Avalanche score 4.10 goals per game, second in the NHL, but they have dropped back-to-back one-goal games at Philadelphia (3-2) and New Jersey (4-3) and three of their last four overall. They are 3-1-1 at Ball Arena. Both teams had two days off since Tuesday, but Tampa Bay plays again Saturday in Utah, so the Lightning are on the front half of a back-to-back.
Firepower vs. the Lightning's structure
Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 16 points (6 goals, 10 assists), with Artturi Lehkonen (8 goals), Cale Makar and Martin Necas at 11 points each. That depth is why Colorado can win a track meet.
Tampa Bay's attack runs through Nikita Kucherov (13 points) and Brandon Hagel (7 goals, 12 points), with Jake Guentzel at 9 points. The Lightning have won with defense more than volume: their power play is just 12.9% (28th), and the penalty kill sits at 79.2%. Colorado's special teams are better on both ends: 18.8% on the power play and 82.6% on the kill.
The goaltending numbers keep this close. Mackenzie Blackwood has made seven of Colorado's 10 starts with a .889 save percentage and 2.90 GAA; Scott Wedgewood is at .912 in three starts. Andrei Vasilevskiy has started seven of nine for Tampa Bay at .898 and 2.46, with Dennis Hildeby 2-0 at .920. Previews project Vasilevskiy and Blackwood, but neither team had confirmed its starter when we checked, and the Saturday game makes a Tampa Bay split possible.
Injuries and the Cirelli question
Anthony Cirelli is the swing piece. He scored twice at Vegas but sat out the third period with an undisclosed injury and is listed day-to-day; Tampa Bay had not given an update. Without him, the Lightning lose their top-line center and a first-unit penalty killer. Yanni Gourde (hip) remains on injured reserve.
Colorado is without center Nicolas Roy (lower body) and winger Zachary L'Heureux (upper body), and Georgii Merkulov is on IR. Those are depth losses, not core ones, so the Avalanche lineup is close to full strength up front.
How the line has moved
The moneyline has held steady in the -125 to -133 range for Colorado. The total is the story: it sat at 5.5 on Thursday, moved to 6, and now reads 6.5, with the under priced at -120 to -123. The market has already caught up to Colorado's scoring.
Prediction: no edge
We pass on a side:
- The model has Colorado at 56%, labeled low confidence, against a no-vig market of roughly 54%. That gap is too thin to bet.
- Colorado's 4.10 goals per game and better special teams favor the Avalanche, but a .889 save percentage from its main starter gives a lot back.
- Tampa Bay's 2.56 goals against and 7-1 run since opening night argue against fading it at plus money, while its 2-2 road mark and a Saturday back-to-back pull the other way.
The swing factor is Cirelli: if he plays, Tampa Bay's top line is intact; if not, Colorado's depth edge grows. On the total, 6.5 has already absorbed a full goal of movement and the under is juiced, so we don't see value on either side of it.
