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Analysis
Chicago Blackhawks vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 23, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Canadiens moneyline at -147 (medium confidence). The model gives Montreal 71%; the licensed price implies about 59%.
- Shot gap: Montreal averages 29.7 shots per game, Chicago 21.4. Chicago allows 30.6.
- Chicago ranks 30th in goals scored (2.33) and goals allowed (4.00) per game.
- Montreal is without captain Nick Suzuki (12 points) for 2-4 weeks, and its starter is unconfirmed.
The Montreal Canadiens (4-3-2) visit the Chicago Blackhawks (3-6-0) on Friday at 8:00 PM ET at the United Center, on NHL Network in the US. Licensed books price Montreal between -143 and -154 with the total at 6.5. The tension: Montreal just lost captain Nick Suzuki for two to four weeks, but Chicago is putting up only 21.4 shots a night. Our pick: Canadiens moneyline at -147.
How these teams got here
Montreal's record undersells how close its games have been. Five of its nine games went past regulation: shootout wins over Detroit (1-0) and Buffalo (4-3), an overtime win over Buffalo, and overtime losses at Pittsburgh and against San Jose. Tuesday's 4-3 OT loss to the Sharks was the fourth time this season the Canadiens gave up a two-goal lead, per TheSpread. Montreal scores 3.11 goals per game (14th) but allows 3.78 (29th), so nothing has come easy.
Chicago is 3-6-0 with a -15 goal differential, 31st in the league table. The Blackhawks rank 30th in both goals scored (2.33) and goals allowed (4.00). They're 3-2-0 at home and 0-4-0 on the road. Their last outing was a 4-0 home loss to Dallas on Oct. 17, so they come in on five days of rest against a Montreal team that last played Tuesday.
Connor Bedard is back from offseason shoulder surgery. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in three games since returning on Oct. 13, and Chicago went 2-1 in those games. That's a real lift, but one forward doesn't fix a team that's 31st in shots.
The shot gap and the crease
This game comes down to volume. Montreal averages 29.7 shots for and 26.3 against per game. Chicago averages 21.4 for and 30.6 against. That's roughly an eight-shot swing in Montreal's favor every night, and Chicago also wins only 43.0% of its faceoffs to Montreal's 52.5%.
In goal, Chicago is projected to start Spencer Knight (3-4-0, 3.59 GAA, .888 SV%), who has started seven of nine games. Montreal hasn't confirmed its starter. Jacob Fowler (3-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .900 SV%) has been the better goalie since his recall from Laval; Jakub Dobes (1-2-2, 4.47 GAA, .847) has struggled. Fowler in net makes this pick a lot more comfortable. Check the starter before puck drop.
Special teams are a wash between two weak units: Montreal's power play runs at 13.8% and its penalty kill at 78.4%, against Chicago's 12.5% and 74.1%.
What Suzuki's absence changes
Suzuki leads Montreal with 12 points (5 goals, 7 assists) in nine games and played 21:03 in Tuesday's game before a shot hit his left hand. The team says he'll miss two to four weeks, which ends a 546-game ironman streak. Oliver Kapanen centered Cole Caufield (6 goals) and Juraj Slafkovsky at Thursday's practice, and Owen Beck was recalled from Laval. Lane Hutson (9 points) still drives play from the back end.
Montreal is also without Ivan Demidov and goalie Sam Montembeault, both on injured reserve. Chicago's absence to watch is defenseman Bowen Byram, day-to-day with an upper-body injury after missing two games; coach Jeff Blashill said he's not in the concussion protocol.
Losing Suzuki costs Montreal its best two-way center and faceoff man. Even so, the books still have Montreal at -143 to -154 a day after the news broke, and the shot gap above was built over nine games, most of them with Suzuki. Expect some drop-off, not a collapse.
Prediction: Canadiens moneyline (-147)
We're taking Montreal on the moneyline at -147. The model gives the Canadiens 71% and the licensed price implies about 59%. We think the Suzuki injury narrows that gap, but it doesn't close it.
- Shot volume: 29.7 to 21.4 shots for, and Chicago allows 30.6.
- Chicago's scoring: 2.33 goals per game, 30th in the league.
- Goal differential: -15 for Chicago vs -4 for Montreal.
- Faceoffs: 52.5% to 43.0%, even with Suzuki out.
The risk: Montreal's starter. If Dobes (.847) gets the net instead of Fowler (.900), Chicago's thin attack has a path, and Knight has the rest edge.
On the total: 6.5 is a fair number. Montreal's attack takes a hit without Suzuki and Chicago scores little, but both teams rank 29th or worse in goals allowed. No play on the total.
