Analysis
Knicks vs Bulls Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 28, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives the Knicks 69%, in line with the licensed moneyline range of -250 to -278 (about 68–70% once the vig is removed).
- Chicago allows 129.5 points per game, last in the NBA, and turns it over 19.5 times a night.
- New York is on the second night of a back-to-back after beating Detroit 111-97; Brunson and Anunoby each played 36 minutes.
- The Bulls are without Nic Claxton; Patrick Williams and Tobe Awaka are questionable.
The New York Knicks (1-3) visit the Chicago Bulls (1-3) at the United Center on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET (MSG, NBA League Pass). New York is a 6.5- to 7.5-point road favorite (-250 to -278 on the moneyline) a day after its first win. The tension: a sputtering Knicks offense on tired legs against the league's leakiest defense. Our call: no edge. The model's 69% for New York matches the market.
How these teams got here
The Knicks opened 0-3 with three single-digit losses: 106-100 to Philadelphia, 107-103 at Boston and 111-102 to Orlando. They finally broke through Tuesday, beating Detroit 111-97 at Madison Square Garden after leading by as many as 27. New York is scoring 104.0 points per game and allowing 105.3, so the defense has held up while the offense has lagged.
Chicago's start has been rougher. The Bulls were routed 135-92 in Toronto on opening night, won 132-125 in Milwaukee, then lost 124-120 at home to Washington and 134-99 in Boston on Monday. They allow 129.5 points per game, last in the NBA, and their net rating of -17.4 also ranks last. They play the league's fastest pace, so their games turn into track meets.
Rest cuts the other way. Chicago has had a day off since Boston. New York played at home Tuesday night and flies in for the second half of a back-to-back.
Towns on the glass vs. a defense that can't get stops
Karl-Anthony Towns just put up 27 points and 20 rebounds against Detroit, and the Knicks grabbed 19 offensive boards. That's the pressure point. Chicago is without center Nic Claxton (hamstring) and leans on Jalen Smith (7.5 rebounds) and Leonard Miller up front.
Jalen Brunson is averaging about 23 points, though he went 5-of-18 from the field against Detroit and made up for it at the line (13-of-16). OG Anunoby adds 16-plus a night. Mikal Bridges is the swing piece: he scored 10 points total in the first three games, then hit 4-of-8 from three on Tuesday.
Chicago's offense runs through rookie Caleb Wilson (21.0 points) and Norman Powell (19.5), with Josh Giddey handing out 7.3 assists. The problem is the jumper. The Bulls are shooting 24% from three on 42 attempts a game and turning it over 19.5 times a night. Feed that into a Knicks defense that collected 10 steals Tuesday and New York gets easy run-outs.
Fatigue and the injury report
Chicago's official report lists Claxton out, with Patrick Williams (adductor) and Awaka (ankle) questionable. Neither Claxton nor Williams has played yet this season, so the line already reflects their absence.
New York's report had not been filed as of Wednesday morning, which is normal for a team that played the night before. Jose Alvarado (ankle) is a game-time decision. The bigger unknown is fatigue: Brunson and Anunoby logged 36 minutes apiece Tuesday, Towns 33. If the Knicks hold anyone out, the number will move, so check the final report before tip.
Prediction: no edge on Knicks vs Bulls
No edge. The model makes New York a 69% winner at medium confidence. The licensed moneyline range of -250 to -278 implies 71% to 74%, and roughly 68% to 70% once the vig is stripped out. There's no gap to bet into.
- The matchup favors New York. Chicago allows 129.5 points and commits 19.5 turnovers a game, and its three-point shooting (24%) can't keep pace.
- The schedule favors Chicago. The Knicks are on the second night of a back-to-back after heavy minutes for their starters.
- The price is steep. Laying 6.5 to 7.5 on the road with an offense averaging 104.0 points leaves little margin.
- The market is settled. The moneyline opened around -260 and has barely moved, so there's no stale number to grab.
Swing factor: Bridges. If he shoots like he did Tuesday, the floor opens for Towns and this can get out of hand early.
On the total of 234.5, the two profiles cancel out. Bulls games have averaged about 240 combined points, Knicks games about 209. No play there either.
