Analysis
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 28, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Nuggets -4.5 (-115), medium confidence. The model gives Denver a 68% win chance, above the 64.9%–67.5% implied by licensed moneylines.
- Jamal Murray (42) and Nikola Jokic (35-15-10) combined for 77 points when Denver beat New Orleans 141-135 in OT on Saturday.
- New Orleans allows 128.0 points per game (29th) and has lost its three games by a combined 10 points.
- Rest favors the Pelicans: three days off vs. one for Denver, which lost 134-114 to Golden State on Monday.
The Denver Nuggets (1-2) visit the winless New Orleans Pelicans (0-3) on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center (GCSEN, NBA League Pass), four days after Denver's 141-135 overtime escape in the same matchup. Licensed books have Denver -4.5 to -5.5 with the total at 238.5–239.5. New Orleans has lost its three games by a combined 10 points. Our pick: Nuggets -4.5 (medium confidence).
A rematch on a short turnaround
Denver's week has swung hard. The Nuggets trailed New Orleans 73-57 at halftime on Saturday at Ball Arena, then won the fourth quarter 37-18 to force overtime and took it 15-9. Two nights later they were flattened at home by Golden State, 134-114, after a 96-84 opening loss at Oklahoma City. That's 0-3 against the spread to start the season, per Covers.
New Orleans is 0-3 in the cruelest way possible: 123-120 to Indiana at home, 120-119 at Utah and the overtime loss in Denver. The Pelicans can score, at 124.7 points per game (3rd) per Basketball Reference. They just can't stop anyone: 128.0 allowed (29th).
The schedule tilts toward the home side. Denver played Monday and has one day to travel and reset. New Orleans has been off since Saturday.
Jokic and Murray against a defense with no answers
Saturday's box score tells you where this game is decided. Jamal Murray scored 42 and Nikola Jokic posted 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists: 77 of Denver's 141. On the season, Murray is at 22.3 points on 47.8% from three, and Jokic is averaging 22.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists. DeMar DeRozan adds 15.3 a night off the bench.
The Pelicans' attack runs through Zion Williamson (20.7 points on 56.4% shooting) and Dejounte Murray (20.3 points, 6.3 assists). Trey Murphy III dropped 26 on Saturday and is hitting 41.2% from deep, while second-year big Derik Queen adds 13.0 points and 8.3 boards.
Two numbers from Saturday stand out. New Orleans shot 11-of-38 from three and committed 18 turnovers to Denver's 12. A team that averages 16.0 giveaways can't keep handing Jokic extra possessions and expect to close.
Tempo is the other battle. Denver plays at the league's third-slowest pace (96.8, 28th); New Orleans pushes at 102.4 (11th). Saturday's regulation game ended 126-126, so the Pelicans dragged Denver into their kind of game and still lost.
The injury picture
Denver's official report (Oct. 27, 7:45 PM ET) lists Cameron Johnson as doubtful with a right ankle sprain, and Spencer Jones, Julian Strawther and Alpha Diallo as out. All four were inactive on Saturday and again on Monday, so the group that beat New Orleans four days ago is the group that takes the floor again. The thin wing rotation puts more on Christian Braun (35.7 minutes a night) and Bryce Hopkins, who logged 31 minutes against Golden State.
New Orleans is close to whole. Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise, as he was on Saturday. Jordan Poole is listed as probable with an illness.
Net effect: neither side is missing a player it didn't miss in the first meeting.
Prediction: Nuggets -4.5
We're on Denver -4.5 at medium confidence. The reasons:
- The model clears the market. It gives Denver a 68% win probability, above the 64.9%–67.5% implied by licensed moneylines (-185 to -208).
- The top of the roster. Murray and Jokic combined for 77 against this defense, and New Orleans still allows 128.0 points per game, 29th in the league.
- Possessions. The Pelicans average 16.0 turnovers and gave Denver 18 on Saturday.
- No new absences. Denver already won this matchup without Johnson, Jones, Strawther and Diallo.
Take the -4.5 where it's offered. Some licensed books are at -5.5, and that extra point matters against a team whose three losses came by 3, 1 and 6.
The risk: rest and Denver's own defense. The Nuggets rank 27th in defensive rating (121.5), they're on one day of rest against a team on three, and New Orleans has lost by 3, 1 and 6. A Pelicans backdoor cover is very much live.
The total: 238.5–239.5. Pelicans games are averaging 252.7 combined points; Denver's are at 234.7 because of its pace. Saturday cleared 250 in regulation, so the lean is over, but not strong enough to headline.
