Warriors vs TimberwolvesFinal Score & Recap

The Golden State Warriors (1-3) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) at 8:00 PM ET Wednesday at Target Center, on KARE and DAZN in Minnesota and NBCSBA and Peacock in the Bay Area. Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite across licensed books, down from 6.5 at the open, because Anthony Edwards is out. The Wolves still own the better defense and the glass. No edge: our model makes Minnesota a 61% favorite, right where the market already has it.

How these teams got here

Minnesota opened 3-0 by an average of 23 points: 131-106 at Miami, 115-93 at Orlando and 117-94 against Toronto. Monday's 127-125 overtime loss at Cleveland was the first blemish, and Edwards poured in 47 points on 19-of-34 shooting in it. Through four games the Wolves allow just 105.0 points per game (4th) and carry a +16.4 net rating, 2nd in the league.

Golden State dropped its first three: 127-105 at the Lakers, 111-108 to Memphis and 131-122 at Phoenix. Then it blew out Denver 134-114 on Monday, hitting 22 of 44 threes. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg went for 31 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists, and Stephen Curry scored 24 without missing a shot from the field (8-of-8).

Both teams played Monday and had Tuesday off, so neither side has a rest edge. The Warriors come in off the road win in Denver.

Golden State's shooting vs. Minnesota's size

This game is a clash of styles. The Warriors rank 4th in offensive rating (119.4) and hit 38.1% from three (8th) on 40 attempts a night. Curry is averaging 23.7 points on 52.6% shooting in his three games, and Lendeborg leads the team at 21.8 points and 9.3 rebounds.

Minnesota answers with length. Opponents are shooting 28.4% from three against the Wolves, 2nd-best in the league, and their 101.4 defensive rating ranks 2nd. They also own the boards: 54.0 rebounds per game, 1st, with Rudy Gobert pulling down 14.3 a night. Golden State sits 25th at 41.5 and dead last in defensive rebounds, so second chances could swing this one.

The Warriors' problem is the other end. Their 122.9 defensive rating ranks 29th, and opponents are shooting 52.8% from the field, the worst mark in the NBA.

Life without Anthony Edwards

Edwards was averaging 33.3 points, more than a quarter of Minnesota's 122.0 per game. Per ESPN's Shams Charania, he faces arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and could miss up to two months. The official report lists him out, and Donte DiVincenzo (right Achilles) is out too.

The scoring now has to come from Jaden McDaniels (15.0 points on 59.1% shooting), LaMelo Ball (14.8 points, 6.3 assists), Terrence Shannon Jr. (13.0), Ayo Dosunmu (12.0) and Jonathan Kuminga (11.5). That's plenty of bodies, but no one who can create a shot the way Edwards does late in the clock.

Golden State is short-handed as well. Jimmy Butler III (right ACL) and Moses Moody (left patellar tendon) are out, Kristaps Porzingis is out (not with team), and Lendeborg is questionable with left foot soreness. Without him, the Warriors lose their leading scorer and rebounder against the league's best rebounding team.

How the line has moved

Minnesota opened as a 6.5-point favorite at -230. Once the Edwards news broke Tuesday night, the line fell to -3.5, and the moneyline now sits at -152 to -165 (Warriors +128 to +140). That three-point drop is the market's price on Edwards. The total has barely moved, from 227.5 at the open to 228.5.

Prediction: No edge

No edge. Our model gives Minnesota a 61% win chance at low confidence. The licensed moneyline range of -152 to -165 implies about 60-62% before the vig is stripped out, so there's nothing to bet into.

• The Wolves' defense travels without Edwards. A 101.4 defensive rating and 54.0 rebounds a night don't depend on one scorer.
• The offense might not. Edwards took 26.0 shots a game; Ball is shooting 42.9% and Kuminga 45.7%, so the half-court offense gets thinner.
• Golden State's shooting keeps it live. The 4th-best offense and a 22-of-44 night in Denver show how fast the Warriors can erase a 3.5-point gap.
• The market already adjusted. The three-point move from -6.5 matches the drop in Minnesota's win probability, and the model sits right on it.

Swing factor: Lendeborg's foot. If he sits, Minnesota's rebounding edge grows and the Warriors lean even harder on Curry.

On the total (228.5): Minnesota's games have averaged 227.0 combined points and Golden State's 238.0, but Golden State plays at the league's second-slowest pace (95.7). Without Edwards, there's no clear read either way.