Analysis
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 24, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model's 68% on Philadelphia leans on a 7% draw chance; the books price the draw near 21%, and the Union are already -185 to -213.
- Philadelphia is unbeaten in 15 straight (12-0-3) and has scored 61 goals, while New England has allowed just 41.
- New England (52 pts) has clinched a playoff berth; sixth-place Philadelphia (46) is still chasing one.
The New England Revolution (16-10-4, 52 pts, 3rd in the East) visit the Philadelphia Union (13-10-7, 46 pts, 6th) at Subaru Park on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on Apple TV. The Union are -185 to -213 on the 3-way line, with the Revs +380 to +475 and the draw +360 to +380. It's a team that hasn't lost in 15 against one of the East's stingiest defenses, and the price already says so. No edge: we pass on the result.
How these teams got here
Philadelphia has turned its season around under interim coach Ryan Richter. The Union are unbeaten in a club-record 15 straight (12-0-3) since the World Cup break, a run that included a team-record eight-game winning streak. That streak ended last Saturday in a 2-2 draw with Charlotte, when Milan Iloski converted a penalty and Bruno Damiani answered Idan Toklomati's go-ahead header. Philadelphia is 7-3-5 at home and has scored 61 goals in 30 matches (2.03 per game), but it has also conceded 48 (1.60 per game).
New England has already clinched a playoff berth and comes in on a two-game winning streak: 3-2 at FC Cincinnati in midweek, then 1-0 over Chicago, with Matt Polster scoring and Matt Turner making six saves. The Revs have five wins in their last seven, six road wins on the season and a 5-3-1 away record since MLS resumed in July. They've scored only 49 goals, but their 41 allowed ties for the second-fewest in the East.
Carles Gil against the Union's attack
The decisive battle is New England's compact block against Philadelphia's volume. Carles Gil runs the Revs: 12 goals and 11 assists, and a league-leading 84 key passes. He has five goals and five assists in New England's last nine and scored the 87th-minute winner when the Revs beat the Union 2-1 at Gillette Stadium on May 9. Peyton Miller has three goals and three assists in his last five, and New England is 9-0-2 when he records one.
Philadelphia counters with Iloski, the club's leading scorer, and Damiani, who has reached double figures. Behind them, Turner (16 wins, six clean sheets) faces the East's fourth-highest-scoring attack. There's a subplot too: Dániel Gazdag, the Union's all-time leading regular-season scorer with 59 goals, returns to Chester in a Revs shirt after joining New England in September.
Who's missing
Availability could tilt this one. The Inquirer reported that Cavan Sullivan (ankle), who has seven goals and 14 assists, will miss the match, which would take Philadelphia's chief creator out of the middle. Indiana Vassilev left the Charlotte game hurt in the first half, and Damiani had to pass a concussion test after a collision. Neither has an official status yet. Jesús Bueno is listed as questionable.
For New England, Jack Harrison and Alhassan Yusuf are listed out, and center back Mamadou Fofana is questionable. Missing Fofana would test a back line that has carried this team.
Playoff stakes
This isn't Decision Day: New England still has home dates with Red Bull New York (Oct. 28) and Inter Miami (Nov. 1). A Revs win lifts them to 55 points, level with second-place Miami. Philadelphia, chasing a playoff clinch, sits one point behind Charlotte (47) and two behind Chicago (48) in a tight race for fourth through sixth. A Union win would move them to 49. The Revs also carry history: they haven't won at Subaru Park since 2021, and the all-time series stands 12-27-8 in Philadelphia's favor.
Prediction: no edge
Our model makes Philadelphia a 68% winner, with New England at 25% and the draw at only 7%. That draw number is the problem.
- The draw is underpriced by the model. Licensed books put the draw at +360 to +380, about 21% implied, three times the model's figure. Most of that gap lands on Philadelphia's number.
- The market already has the Union. At -185 to -213, Philadelphia's vig-included implied probability runs 64.9% to 68.0%. Remove the margin and it's roughly 60% to 64%. A 68% call only "beats" that because of the 7% draw.
- The Revs defend. Allowing 1.37 goals per game and winning the May meeting, New England is the wrong opponent to lay a big price against.
- Lineups are unsettled. Sullivan's reported absence and the Vassilev and Damiani questions hit Philadelphia's attack directly.
The swing factor is Sullivan: if Philadelphia's creator really sits, the Union lose the player behind 21 goal contributions. On the total, licensed books sit at 3.5, with the under shaded to -118 to -141. That's a high number for a Revs side that has allowed 41 in 30, so we lean under but don't play it.
