Analysis
Genoa vs Venezia Prediction, Picks & Odds (Serie A Matchday 8)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Genoa at very low confidence and prices the draw at 16%, well below the roughly 29% the 3-way line implies.
- Genoa have scored 5 goals in 7 Serie A games, second-fewest in the league.
- Venezia have conceded 16, second-most, but just beat Napoli 1-0 for their first win.
- Genoa are about +110 on the 3-way line, draw +215, Venezia +245.
Genoa (1-1-5, 17th) host Venezia (1-0-6, 20th) at the Luigi Ferraris on Sunday, October 25, at 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Genoa sit around +105 to +110 on the 3-way line, with the draw near +215 and Venezia near +245. It's an early six-pointer between two sides with a combined 11 goals scored in 14 league games, and Venezia arrive off their first win of the season. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Genoa have 4 points from 7 matches and a -8 goal difference, with just 5 goals scored, the second-fewest in Serie A. They beat Fiorentina 2-1 at home on October 10, then lost 2-0 at Roma last weekend. Only Parma (4) have scored fewer.
Venezia lost their first six league games before a 1-0 home win over Napoli on October 17, with Akor Adams scoring the winner (per The Stats Zone). Before that, they had shipped three goals in each of their last two road trips: a 3-2 loss at Frosinone and a 3-1 loss at Atalanta. They have 16 goals against, the second-most in the league, and sit one point behind Genoa. A win in Liguria would jump them over their hosts.
Where the game is decided
This is Genoa's blunt attack against Venezia's leaky back line. Genoa average 0.71 goals per game, while Venezia concede 2.29 per game. Something has to give, and the market says Genoa's home pitch tips it, but not by much: Genoa at +110 implies about 48% before the bookmaker's margin.
Venezia's own attack isn't nothing. They've scored 6 goals, one more than Genoa, and the Napoli result showed they can defend a lead against a top-half side. Both clubs were projected in 3-5-2 or 3-4-2-1 shapes by The Stats Zone, so expect a crowded midfield and few clean looks.
Who's in, who's out
Genoa coach Daniele De Rossi said Lorenzo Colombo and Tommaso Baldanzi were hit by stomach-virus symptoms this week and remain under evaluation, per press-conference notes compiled by Fantamaster. He added that Franz-Ethan Meichtry should make the squad and that Traoré will start. Several Genoa players were returning from injuries this week, so the bench should be deeper than it was in Rome.
Venezia get reinforcements too: coach Nicola said Gianluca Busio returned during the week and Armel Bella-Kotchap rejoined the group on Friday. Bella-Kotchap's return matters most for a defense that has conceded 16.
How the line has moved
Barely. Genoa drifted from about +105 to +110 and the draw from +210 to +215, so there's no strong steam either way.
Prediction: no edge
- The model's lean is weak. It gives Genoa 52%, but at very low confidence.
- The draw looks underpriced by the model. It has the draw at 16%; the 3-way price implies roughly 29%, and two low-scoring bottom-four teams make a stalemate a live result.
- Genoa's attack is the problem. 5 goals in 7 matches is hard to trust as a favorite, even at home.
- Venezia's defense is worse. 16 conceded keeps Genoa in the conversation, which is why the market still makes them the favorite.
The swing factor is Colombo's availability: an attack with 5 goals in 7 games can't afford to lose a striker to a virus. On the total, the over 2.5 sits near -105 and the under near -120. With 18 goals in Genoa's 7 games and 22 in Venezia's, we don't see enough to lay juice on the under either.
