Analysis
Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 10, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Washington a slight edge at low confidence, not enough to back the road side at +105 to +111 against a 6-2-0 home team.
- Linus Ullmark (7-1-0, 1.33 GAA, .945) was activated from IR on Nov. 8 and is Ottawa's projected starter; Logan Thompson sits at .888.
- Washington scores 3.53 goals per game but allows 3.40; Ottawa scores 3.11 and allows 3.00.
- Washington's power play (20.0%) is well ahead of Ottawa's (13.2%), and both penalty kills sit below 77%.
The Washington Capitals (9-6-0) visit the Ottawa Senators (11-6-1) on Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET at Canadian Tire Centre (MNMT and ESPN+ in the U.S., TSN5 and RDS2 in Canada). Ottawa is -125 to -130 on the moneyline, Washington +105 to +111, and the total sits at 6.5. The tension: Washington scores in bunches, and Ottawa just got back a goalie who stopped .945 of the shots he faced before his injury. Our model gives the Capitals a slight edge, but only at low confidence. No edge.
How these teams got here
Washington comes in at 3.53 goals per game, but it gives back 3.40. That gap is how a team goes 9-6-0 with only a +2 goal differential. The last five games tell the story: a 5-2 win over Philadelphia, 4-3 at Nashville, then back-to-back home losses of 5-1 to Minnesota and 6-5 to Dallas, before a 4-3 win over Florida on Saturday. The Capitals have played three fewer games than Ottawa (15 to 18), and only four of them on the road, where they're 2-2-0.
Ottawa has won two straight, 2-1 at Buffalo and 4-2 over Utah on Saturday, after a West Coast trip that went loss, win, loss (6-5 in overtime at Los Angeles, 5-1 at San Jose, 6-3 at Anaheim). The Senators are 6-2-0 at home, scoring 3.11 and allowing 3.00 per game. Both teams last played Saturday, so neither is on a back-to-back. This is the first meeting of the season.
Ullmark is back, and that changes the math
Linus Ullmark was dominant before he got hurt: 7-1-0, 1.33 GAA, .945 save percentage in eight starts. He left an Oct. 21 game against Florida with a lower-body injury and went on injured reserve. Ottawa activated him on Nov. 8, and Daily Faceoff projects him to start, though it wasn't confirmed as of Tuesday morning. Without him, Samuel Ersson (.890, 3.14 GAA) has carried most of the load, and Jonas Johansson (.848) has since been loaned to Belleville.
Washington's projected starter, Logan Thompson, is 6-4-0 with a 3.20 GAA and an .888 save percentage in 11 starts, also unconfirmed. Charlie Lindgren (.881) is the alternative.
That puts a deep scoring group against a goalie who was nearly unbeatable before the injury. Alex Tuch has 11 goals in 15 games, Dylan Strome (3 goals, 11 assists) and Jordan Kyrou (5 goals, 9 assists) both have 14 points, and Jakob Chychrun has 11 from the blue line. Ottawa's attack runs through Tim Stützle (9 goals, 14 assists), with Drake Batherson at 18 points and Shane Pinto at 14.
Special teams and the injury list
The power plays favor Washington: 20.0% for the Capitals against Ottawa's 13.2%. Neither penalty kill is good (Washington 76.5%, Ottawa 74.6%), so the Capitals have the clearer path to a special-teams goal. Shots are close to even: Washington takes 27.8 a night and allows 27.7, Ottawa takes 25.7 and allows 27.4.
Ottawa is thin on the left side, with William Eklund (ankle), Warren Foegele (knee) and Andre Burakovsky (lower body) all on injured reserve. Ridly Greig missed about a week with an undisclosed injury and was expected back Tuesday, per Daily Faceoff. Washington is missing two defensemen, Rasmus Sandin (knee), on injured reserve as of Monday, and Vincent Desharnais (abdomen), plus center Patrick Thomas. The Capitals recalled Justin Holl from Hershey on Monday.
Prediction: No edge
The model gives Washington a slight edge, but only at low confidence, and that isn't enough to fade a home team in this spot:
- Goaltending points to Ottawa. Ullmark's .945 against Thompson's .888 is the biggest gap on the ice, if Ullmark starts.
- Washington's offense is real. The Capitals score 3.53 a game and have the better power play (20.0% to 13.2%).
- So is Washington's defense problem. It allows 3.40 a game and gave up five or more in two of its last five.
- Home ice backs the price. Ottawa is 6-2-0 at home; Washington is 2-2-0 on the road.
The swing factor is the crease. If Ersson starts instead of Ullmark, Ottawa loses most of its goaltending edge and the Capitals become more interesting at plus money.
On the total, the 6.5 is priced toward the under (-120 to -130), which fits an Ullmark start. But Washington's games average almost seven goals (104 in 15), so we pass on the total too.
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