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Analysis
Montreal Canadiens vs Minnesota Wild Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 10, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Minnesota a slight, low-confidence favorite, short of what even the best Wild price (-118, 54.1%) requires.
- Projected goalies are a wash: Wallstedt .922 SV% vs. Fowler .925 SV%, both unconfirmed.
- Minnesota's power play converts 26.9% vs. Montreal's 15.4%; both penalty kills sit at 78.3%.
- Montreal is 8-0-2 in its last 10, while Minnesota is without defensemen Faber and Spurgeon.
The Minnesota Wild (12-3-4) visit the Montreal Canadiens (11-3-3) at Bell Centre on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 7:00 p.m. ET (Wild+, TSN2, RDS, ESPN+). Minnesota is a -118 to -130 road favorite (Montreal +100 to +105, total 6 to 6.5). The Wild allow just 2.26 goals per game; the Canadiens are 8-0-2 in their last 10. No edge: the model rates Minnesota a slight favorite, but not by more than the price.
How these teams got here
Minnesota leads the Central with 28 points in 19 games and a +20 goal differential (63 for, 43 against). The Wild are 6-1-3 over their last 10 and 7-3-2 on the road. Their last game was a 4-3 overtime loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday with Calvin Pickard in net, one night after a 4-1 win over San Jose. Tuesday opens a three-game road trip, per The Athletic, with a stop in Toronto on Thursday.
Montreal sits second in the Atlantic with 25 points in 17 games, two games in hand on the Wild. The Canadiens have won two straight, most recently a 4-2 win in Toronto on Saturday, and haven't lost in regulation in 10 games. They score 3.47 goals per game but allow 3.12, which makes them easier to beat on paper than their record says. They're 5-2-2 at home.
Both teams last played Saturday, so neither has a rest edge.
The goalie duel and the power-play gap
Daily Faceoff projects Jesper Wallstedt for Minnesota and Jacob Fowler for Montreal, both unconfirmed as of Tuesday morning. On the numbers, it's a wash:
- Wallstedt: 11-2-3, 1.99 GAA, .922 SV% in 16 starts.
- Fowler: 8-1-1, 2.15 GAA, .925 SV% with two shutouts in 10 starts.
The backups are a different story. Pickard is at 3.60 and .855 in three starts, and Jakub Dobes is at 4.04 and .847 in seven. If either one starts, the read changes.
The clearest gap is on special teams. Minnesota's power play converts 26.9%, while Montreal's sits at 15.4%. Both penalty kills are at 78.3%. Kirill Kaprizov drives it: 16 goals and 31 points in 19 games, five of those goals on the power play, and Maxim Shabanov has five more. Quinn Hughes has 26 points from the back end.
Montreal answers with Lane Hutson (17 points), Cole Caufield (11 goals) and Nick Suzuki (15 points in 11 games). The Wild also control the shot count, at 29.7 shots for and 25.6 against per game, compared with 27.6 and 28.3 for the Canadiens.
Injuries on both blue lines
Minnesota is missing two regular defensemen. Brock Faber (skull) and Jared Spurgeon (lower body) are both on injured reserve, though The Athletic reports both were set to travel on this trip. Without them, Hughes played 29:29 on Saturday. Goalie Filip Gustavsson (hip) is also on IR, and center Michael McCarron (upper body) is day-to-day and "could be an option," per The Athletic.
Montreal is without defenseman Mike Matheson (lower body), who was expected to miss about two weeks as of Oct. 31, per TVA Sports. Winger Ivan Demidov and goalie Sam Montembeault are on IR. Josh Anderson (personal) missed Saturday and is day-to-day. Jake Evans hurt his hand at Monday's practice, per Sportsnet, and is day-to-day.
How the line has moved
The market has drifted toward Minnesota and the under. The Wild opened around -118 at one book and are now -125 there, with Montreal moving from -102 to +105. The under 6.5 went from -118 to -125. That's a small move, not a stampede.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. The model rates Minnesota a slight favorite at low confidence, about 53%. Even the best Wild price, -118, needs 54.1% to break even.
- Goaltending is even: Wallstedt's .922 against Fowler's .925 cancels out.
- Special teams favor Minnesota: the Wild's 26.9% power play against the Canadiens' 15.4%.
- Form favors Montreal: 8-0-2 in the last 10, plus home ice.
- Minnesota's blue line is thin: without Faber and Spurgeon, Hughes is carrying close to 30 minutes.
Swing factor: the confirmed starters. A Pickard or Dobes start moves this game more than anything else on the board.
On the total: Wild games average about 5.6 combined goals and Canadiens games about 6.6. With two goalies above .920 projected, the 6.5 looks fair, and we have no play there either.
