Analysis
Golden Knights vs Devils Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 30, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives Vegas 56% at low confidence, only a few points above the 50–52% no-vig price on a -110 to -118 moneyline.
- Connor Hellebuyck is projected for his second Devils start after stopping 17 of 18 in a 5-1 debut win at Dallas.
- Vegas is 6-2-0 at home and rested; New Jersey was outshot 45-22 at Colorado on Wednesday, on a back-to-back.
- Both penalty kills leak (Vegas 67.6%, New Jersey 72.4%), and the Vegas power play converts 25.6%.
The Vegas Golden Knights (9-4-1) host the New Jersey Devils (8-5-0) at 6 p.m. ET Friday at T-Mobile Arena, on NHL Network, MSGSN and Scripps. Licensed books have Vegas between -110 and -118, with the total at 6 or 6.5 depending on the book. The tension is in the crease: Connor Hellebuyck is projected for his second Devils start, while Vegas may be without Carter Hart. SportsHub verdict: no edge.
How these teams got here
Vegas has 19 points and sits second in the Pacific, with a 6-2-0 record at home. The Golden Knights dropped three straight last week (6-2 to Tampa Bay, 6-2 at St. Louis, 2-1 in overtime at Columbus). They snapped that slide with a 4-1 win over Ottawa on Tuesday. Friday's 3 p.m. local start closes the homestand, and Vegas comes in on two full days of rest.
New Jersey is 7-3-0 in its last 10, but only 2-3-0 on the road. A four-game winning streak ended Wednesday in Denver, where Colorado outshot the Devils 45-22 in a 5-2 loss on the second night of a back-to-back. The Devils didn't skate Thursday, per NHL.com, so they get one day off before an afternoon puck drop two time zones west.
The scoring lines are close. Vegas averages 3.57 goals for and 2.79 against, New Jersey 3.31 and 2.92.
Hellebuyck vs. the Vegas power play
The Devils acquired Hellebuyck from Winnipeg on Oct. 23 (per AP). He stopped 17 of 18 in his debut, a 5-1 win at Dallas on Tuesday. NJ Hockey Now projects him to start Friday, though the team hadn't confirmed it by late morning. That matters because Jake Allen has carried the load so far: .887 save percentage and a 3.11 GAA in eight starts, plus 45 shots faced Wednesday.
Adin Hill is Vegas' projected starter. He is 5-1-0 with a 2.63 GAA and .895 and made 25 saves on 26 shots against Ottawa.
The special teams are where Vegas can tilt it:
- The Golden Knights' power play converts 25.6%. The Devils' penalty kill sits at 72.4%.
- New Jersey's power play is 7-for-40 (17.5%) and went 0-for-6 in Dallas and Colorado (per NJ Hockey Now).
- The catch: Vegas has the leakier kill of the two, at 67.6%.
Jack Eichel drives Vegas with 20 points (7 goals, 13 assists) in 14 games. Mark Stone has 8 goals, and Mitch Marner 11 assists in 12 games. For New Jersey, Jack Hughes leads with 14 points, and Nico Hischier has 7 goals, 4 of them on the power play. The Devils also generate volume: 32.6 shots per game, second in the NHL, against Vegas' 29.7.
Hart's status and the Vegas back end
Carter Hart (4-3-1, .889) is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. He took part in the morning skate, but his status for Friday was unclear, per NHL.com. Hill was already in line for the start, so Hart's absence mostly thins the depth chart behind him.
The bigger hole is on defense: Parker Wotherspoon (upper body) is on injured reserve. Victor Olofsson (lower body) is practicing in a noncontact jersey and is aiming for the road trip that starts Monday. New Jersey is without defenseman Seamus Casey, who had a knee procedure. NHL.com expects both teams to dress the same skaters as in their last game.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Vegas is the slightly better team on paper, but the price already says so:
- The model isn't confident. It gives Vegas 56% with a low confidence label. Vegas at -110 to -118 works out to about 50% to 52% once the vig is removed. That's a gap, but not one a low-confidence number can carry.
- The goalie matchup points to New Jersey. A Hellebuyck start beats Hill's .895, and it beats Allen's .887 by more.
- Rest and home ice point to Vegas. The Golden Knights are 6-2-0 at home with two days off, while the Devils are one day removed from a 45-shot night in Colorado.
- The special teams cancel out. Vegas has the better power play (25.6% vs 17.5%) but the worse kill (67.6% vs 72.4%).
Swing factor: the Devils' goalie announcement. If Allen starts instead of Hellebuyck, the case for Vegas gets stronger.
On the total: both teams score 3.3 to 3.6 goals a game, and both penalty kills sit below 73%. That argues for goals, but a Hellebuyck start argues the other way. At 6 or 6.5, we're passing.
