Analysis
Golden Knights vs Penguins Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 17, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Golden Knights moneyline at -208; the model's 70% beats the roughly 67.5% the price implies.
- Pittsburgh lost 5-2 at Colorado on Friday and is on the second night of a back-to-back.
- Vegas is +14 in goal differential through nine games and has won six of seven.
- Jack Eichel (16 points) and Mark Stone (11) lead an offense scoring 4.00 goals per game.
The Vegas Golden Knights (7-2-0) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (3-4-1) at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 10 p.m. ET (Scripps, SportsNet Pittsburgh, ESPN+ out of market). Vegas sits first in the Pacific and has won six of seven; Pittsburgh lost in Colorado on Friday and plays the back end of a back-to-back. Vegas is -200 to -233 on the moneyline with the total at 6.5. Our pick: Golden Knights moneyline at -208.
How these teams got here
Vegas has outscored opponents 36-22 through nine games, 4.00 goals per game for and 2.44 against. The Golden Knights beat Calgary 6-2 on Thursday, with Mark Stone scoring a natural hat trick and Brett Howden scoring 25 seconds into the game. Before that came a 5-2 win at Nashville and a 2-1 win over Los Angeles, with the only recent loss a 4-2 setback at Minnesota.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 in its last five and has been outscored 19-12 in that stretch, including a 5-2 loss at Colorado on Friday in which Arturs Silovs made 27 saves on 32 shots. The Penguins are at 3.38 goals for and 3.38 against per game. They have not won a road game in Vegas since January 2022.
Vegas' top unit against a tired Pittsburgh team
The decisive battle is Vegas' top line and power play against a Penguins team playing its second game in two nights. Jack Eichel has 16 points (5 goals, 11 assists) in nine games, second in the NHL behind Connor McDavid, and Stone has 11 points (6 goals, 5 assists). Vegas is one of seven NHL teams converting better than 25% on the power play, led by a top unit of Stone, Eichel, Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl and Shea Theodore, and the Golden Knights have nine power-play goals to Pittsburgh's four.
Vegas also drives play. It has 279 shots in nine games (31.0 per game) against Pittsburgh's 230 in eight (28.8), and the Golden Knights have spent more time in the offensive zone than every team but Carolina and Florida.
In goal, Sergei Murashov is expected to start for Pittsburgh after Silovs played Friday. Murashov is 0-2-1 with a 2.98 GAA and .908 save percentage. Vegas has not confirmed its starter: Carter Hart has made most starts (.911, 2.35 GAA in six appearances), while Adin Hill is 3-0-0 with a 2.27 GAA and .901. Either way, Vegas' team save percentage of .908 is well ahead of Pittsburgh's .891.
Injuries and lineup notes
Vegas is without defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (season-long injured reserve) and Parker Wotherspoon (upper body, out), with forward Victor Olofsson, defenseman Lukas Cormier and center Kai Uchacz on injured reserve. The blue line is thinner, but the forward group that drives the offense is intact.
Pittsburgh's list is longer. Egor Chinakhov was a late scratch Friday with a lower-body issue and is day-to-day, with Ville Koivunen a possible replacement. Defensemen Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk and forward Justin Brazeau are on injured reserve, leaving a Penguins defense that has allowed 3.38 goals per game without two regulars.
Prediction: Golden Knights moneyline
- The model beats the price. It gives Vegas a 70% win probability, above the roughly 67.5% implied by -208, with high confidence.
- Schedule edge. Pittsburgh played in Colorado on Friday; Vegas last played Thursday at home.
- Goal differential. Vegas is +14 in nine games; Pittsburgh is even at 27-27 through eight.
- Star production. Eichel and Stone have combined for 27 points, and Vegas has more than twice as many power-play goals.
- Goaltending. Vegas' .908 team save percentage tops Pittsburgh's .891.
The swing factor is Murashov: if he steals a game on the second night of a back-to-back, Pittsburgh is live at +164 to +195. On the total of 6.5, Vegas games average 6.44 goals and Pittsburgh games 6.75, which sits right on the number, so we stay with the side.
