Analysis
Detroit Red Wings vs San Jose Sharks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 17, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model leans to San Jose at 54% with low confidence, not enough for a pick.
- Detroit averages 31.0 shots per game (tied for 3rd) but converts only 7.4% (29th).
- San Jose's 20.0% power play faces Detroit's 69.6% penalty kill (27th).
- Projected goalies Tarasov (.965) and Nedeljkovic (.933) are unconfirmed.
The Detroit Red Wings (2-3-2) host the San Jose Sharks (4-3-0) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena. In the U.S. the game is on DSN, NBCS-CA and ESPN+, and in Canada on SN+. Detroit is priced -147 to -161 on the moneyline and San Jose +125 to +135, with the total at 6.5. The Sharks have the better record, the Red Wings have the better underlying numbers, and the market prices Detroit as a clear favorite. SportsHub's verdict: no edge.
How these teams got here
Detroit has 6 points from seven games, with two of its five losses coming in overtime or a shootout. On Tuesday the Red Wings lost 5-4 in overtime to New Jersey, with Alex DeBrincat scoring two goals and adding an assist on the day he signed a seven-year, $91 million extension. On Thursday they came from behind to beat Philadelphia 2-1 on a second-period goal from Johansson and a third-period winner from Andrew Copp. DeBrincat leads the team with four goals and eight points.
San Jose comes in at 4-3-0 off a shootout win over Nashville. The record looks better than the goal differential: the Sharks have allowed 3.57 goals per game (25th) while scoring 2.57 (tied for 26th). They're 4-3 despite being outscored, which usually points to some luck in close games.
Both teams played Thursday, so rest is even.
The matchup: Detroit's shot volume against San Jose's special teams
The clearest edge for Detroit is territorial. The Red Wings average 31.0 shots on goal per game, tied for third in the league, and allow 26.0 (tied for 13th). San Jose averages 26.7 shots (19th) and allows 27.6 (21st). On those numbers, Detroit should have more of the puck.
The problem is finishing. Detroit shoots 7.4% (29th), which is why all that volume has produced only 2.29 goals per game (28th). San Jose isn't much better at 9.6% (26th).
Special teams are where the Sharks can win this. San Jose's power play is at 20.0% (tied for 12th), and Detroit's penalty kill has been one of the worst in the league at 69.6% (27th). San Jose's kill (81.8%) is middle of the pack, and Detroit's power play is at 16.7% (tied for 20th). If this game has a lot of penalties, it leans toward San Jose.
In goal, Daily Faceoff projects Alex Nedeljkovic for San Jose (2-0-0, 1.89 GAA, .933 save percentage) and Daniil Tarasov for Detroit (1-0-1, 0.79 GAA, .965 save percentage, one shutout). Neither start was confirmed this morning. Both projected starters have been much better than their teams' other options. Yaroslav Askarov is at .848 for San Jose and John Gibson at .863 for Detroit, so if a different goalie starts, it changes the game, and possibly the total too.
Injuries and lineup notes
Detroit is missing three forwards. Marco Kasper (upper body), J.T. Compher and Mason Appleton are all on injured reserve, and defenseman Simon Edvinsson is also on injured reserve. That puts more on Dylan Larkin, who picked up an assist Thursday after going three games without a point.
San Jose defenseman Darnell Nurse is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Forwards Quentin Musty and Adam Gaudette are on injured reserve, along with goalie Kyle Keyser.
Prediction: no edge
- Shot volume favors Detroit. The Red Wings outshoot opponents 31.0 to 26.0 per game, and San Jose gives up more than it takes.
- Special teams favor San Jose. A 20.0% power play against a 69.6% penalty kill is the biggest single mismatch on the sheet.
- The Sharks' record is ahead of their underlying numbers. They're 4-3-0 while allowing almost a goal more per game than they score.
- Our model leans slightly to San Jose (54%) with low confidence. At +125 to +135 the Sharks' implied probability is roughly 43-44%, but a low-confidence lean against a team that controls play isn't enough to make a pick.
Swing factor: Detroit's penalty kill. If the Red Wings stay out of the box, their shot edge should matter more, but if they don't, San Jose's power play has the matchup.
On the total: 6.5 is a high number for two offenses that rank 26th and 28th in scoring, but Detroit's weak penalty kill and San Jose's leaky defense make the under hard to trust. We'd pass.
