Analysis
Stars vs Blackhawks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 17, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Stars moneyline at -213. Our model gives Dallas 71% against roughly 68% implied.
- Dallas allows a league-best 1.71 goals per game; Chicago allows 4.00, 28th.
- Projected goalies: Jake Oettinger (.943) vs. Spencer Knight (.891).
- Wyatt Johnston (illness) is day-to-day for Dallas; Bowen Byram is day-to-day for Chicago.
The Dallas Stars (3-3-1) visit the Chicago Blackhawks (3-5-0) at 7 p.m. ET Saturday at the United Center, on Prime Video, CHSN and ESPN+. Dallas is -213 to -222 on the moneyline, Chicago +176 to +180, and the total sits at 5.5 to 6. The league's stingiest defense meets a Chicago team giving up four goals a game, even with Connor Bedard back. Pick: Stars moneyline at -213.
How these teams got here
Dallas has been hard to score on and hard to watch on offense. The Stars allow 1.71 goals per game, best in the NHL, but they score just 2.14, 30th in the league. Their last two games show both sides of that: a 3-2 home loss to Colorado on Tuesday, then a 3-2 shootout win in Denver on Wednesday. Miro Heiskanen and Arttu Hyry, short-handed, scored in regulation, and Roope Hintz won it in the fourth round of the shootout. Casey DeSmith made 25 saves for his 100th career win. Dallas has been off since Wednesday.
Chicago has won two straight after a rough start. The Blackhawks beat Pittsburgh 5-3 on Tuesday in Bedard's season debut, then beat Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime on Thursday. Bedard scored his first goal of the season and set up Artyom Levshunov's winner 1:37 into overtime. Patrick Kane added two assists. Spencer Knight made 31 saves, but Chicago still blew a 3-1 lead, and it has allowed 4.00 goals per game, 28th in the league.
Dallas' structure vs. Chicago's shot problem
This game comes down to whether Chicago can generate enough offense against a defense that gives up almost nothing. The Blackhawks average 21.8 shots per game, among the fewest in the league. Dallas allows only 23.1. When a low-volume offense meets that kind of structure, scoring chances will be scarce.
The goaltending gap is just as wide. Jake Oettinger is Dallas' projected starter, though not yet confirmed. He is 2-2-1 with a 1.20 GAA, a .943 save percentage and two shutouts. Knight, Chicago's projected starter, is 3-3-0 with a 3.51 GAA and a .891 save percentage. Chicago also allows 30.4 shots per game, 28th in the NHL, so even a quiet Dallas attack should get more looks than usual.
Special teams are mixed. Dallas' power play has been poor at 12.5% (29th), but Chicago's penalty kill is only 73.9% (25th), so Dallas should get chances there. The Stars kill 87.5% of penalties, sixth in the league, against a Chicago power play at 15.0%. Dallas also wins 56.0% of its faceoffs, second in the NHL, while Chicago is at 44.2%, 31st.
Injuries and lineup notes
Dallas' center depth is the main concern. Wyatt Johnston missed the last two games with an illness and stayed in Dallas. Coach Glen Gulutzan said Friday the team could fly him in for this game but was "not there yet." Matt Duchene (abdomen), Oskar Back (finger) and Cameron Hughes are on injured reserve. The projected top line is Jason Robertson, Hintz and Mikko Rantanen.
Chicago is without Andrew Mangiapane and Ryan Ellis on injured reserve. Defenseman Bowen Byram, who leads the team in average ice time at 24:42, missed Thursday's game with an upper-body injury and is day-to-day. Bedard is centering Kane and Roman Kantserov on the projected top line.
How the line has moved
The total has dropped. Earlier today it was 6.5 at three books. It is now 5.5 at most of them and 6 at the rest, with the over 5.5 priced at -132 to -143. The moneyline has held steady around Dallas -213 to -222.
Prediction: Stars moneyline
Our model gives Dallas a 71% chance to win with high confidence. At -213, the moneyline implies about 68%, so the Stars are the play. Here's why:
- The defensive gap is huge. Dallas allows 1.71 goals per game, first in the NHL. Chicago allows 4.00, 28th.
- Goaltending favors Dallas. Oettinger's .943 save percentage and 1.20 GAA dwarf Knight's .891 and 3.51.
- Chicago can't create volume. Only 21.8 shots per game against a defense allowing 23.1 leaves the Blackhawks very little margin.
- Rest and faceoffs. Dallas has been off since Wednesday, while Chicago played Thursday. The Stars also win 56.0% of their draws to Chicago's 44.2%.
The swing factor is Dallas' offense: 2.14 goals per game on 8.7% shooting. If the Stars can't finish again, Bedard and Kane can steal a one-goal game. The puck line at +110 to +120 is the higher-risk alternative.
On the total, the drop to 5.5 fits both teams' styles, but we're not adding a second play.
