Analysis
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 22, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans San Jose at 52%, but at very low confidence, with Ottawa's starting goalie still undecided.
- Linus Ullmark (.945, 1.33 GAA) is day-to-day after leaving Wednesday's 5-1 win; Samuel Ersson is at .831 and 4.70.
- Ottawa plays the second night of a back-to-back; San Jose had Wednesday off after a 4-3 OT win in Montreal.
- San Jose's power play (24.2%, 8th) faces a team that takes 13.3 penalty minutes a game, second-most in the NHL.
The Ottawa Senators (7-3-0) host the San Jose Sharks (5-4-1) Thursday at 7 p.m. ET at Canadian Tire Centre (NBC Sports California and ESPN+ in the US, TSN5 and RDS in Canada). Ottawa is -125 to -135 on the moneyline with the total at 6.5. The hook: the Sens are on the second night of a back-to-back, and Linus Ullmark (.945) left Wednesday's win hurt. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Ottawa has done it with defense. The Senators sit at 14 points, with 29 goals for and 24 against, and they are 4-1-0 at home. Wednesday's 5-1 win over Florida was an emotional one in Brady Tkachuk's first trip back to Ottawa: Tim Stützle and Stephen Halliday each had a goal and an assist, and Jake Sanderson returned from an eight-game absence with two assists and 22:36 of ice time.
San Jose's numbers are thinner. The Sharks have 11 points but a -8 goal differential (27 for, 35 against). They are 3-2-1 on the road. This trip opened with a 3-1 loss in Toronto on Monday before a 4-3 overtime win in Montreal on Tuesday, when Macklin Celebrini scored twice, including the power-play winner 3:47 into overtime. The Sharks had Wednesday off; Ottawa did not. This is the first meeting of the season between the clubs.
The crease decides it
Ullmark has been the story of Ottawa's start: 7-1, .945 save percentage, 1.33 GAA in eight starts. He went down with 16:25 left in Wednesday's third period after a pad save, and coach Travis Green called it a lower-body strain, with an evaluation set for Thursday. He is listed day-to-day.
If he can't go, the drop is steep. Samuel Ersson is 0-2 with an .831 save percentage and a 4.70 GAA in four appearances, and Field Level Media projects him as the likely starter.
San Jose's crease has its own split. Yaroslav Askarov is 2-4, .865, 3.67, and he stopped 29 of 31 in Toronto. Alex Nedeljkovic is 3-0, .917, 2.37. Neither club had confirmed a starter by Thursday morning.
Up front it is Stützle against Celebrini, both at 14 points (Stützle 6 goals, 8 assists; Celebrini 5 and 9). Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson have seven points each for Ottawa. Tyler Toffoli, Will Smith and Ivar Stenberg have seven apiece for San Jose.
Special teams and shot volume
This is where San Jose has a real argument. The Sharks' power play converts 24.2% (8th), while Ottawa's sits at 13.0% (28th). Ottawa's penalty kill is middle of the pack at 79.5% (16th), and the Senators average 13.3 penalty minutes per game, second-most in the league, per the AP. Give that power play five or six chances and the goaltending edge shrinks fast.
Ottawa also isn't winning the shot count by much. The Sens take 23.8 shots per game (29th) and allow 25.5. San Jose takes 28.2 and allows 28.6. Ottawa has been winning on finishing and saves, which is exactly why the Ullmark question matters.
Who's missing
Ottawa is without defenseman Thomas Chabot (out) and forward William Eklund (injured reserve). Eklund came over from San Jose in June and had ankle surgery on Oct. 15, with a 10-12 week timeline, so he misses the game against his old club. For San Jose, center Alexander Wennberg is day-to-day with an upper-body injury after sitting out Tuesday. He has three assists in nine games while logging about 20 minutes a night, so his absence would thin the Sharks' middle six.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The model leans San Jose at 52%, slightly above the roughly 47-49% the Sharks' +106 to +114 price implies, but it rates its own confidence very low, and that's not enough to headline a side.
- For Ottawa: a +5 goal differential against San Jose's -8, and a 4-1-0 home record.
- For San Jose: rest (Wednesday off against an Ottawa back-to-back), a 24.2% power play against a team that takes 13.3 PIM a game, and more shots per game.
- The swing: Ullmark's Thursday evaluation. With him, Ottawa's price looks fair. With Ersson's .831 in net, the Sharks become the interesting side.
The total is 6.5, with the under priced at -115 to -120. Ullmark's 1.33 GAA and Ersson's 4.70 point in opposite directions, so we pass on the total too until the goalies are confirmed.
