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Analysis
Devils vs Ducks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 22, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Devils moneyline (-200). The model gives New Jersey 77% against a market price of about 66-67%.
- New Jersey outshoots opponents 35.7 to 26.0 per game; Anaheim is outshot 26.6 to 24.1.
- The Ducks have lost four straight; the Devils are 4-2-0 at home with 11 goals in their last two home games.
- Risk: New Jersey's 70.8% penalty kill against Anaheim's 22.6% power play.
The New Jersey Devils (5-4-0) host the Anaheim Ducks (4-5-0) on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET at Prudential Center (MSGSN in New Jersey; FOXLA+ and Prime Video in the Ducks' market). New Jersey is -196 to -200 on the moneyline, and the total is 6.5. Anaheim has lost four straight and dropped both ends of a New York swing this week. The Devils outshoot opponents by almost 10 a night. Pick: Devils moneyline (-200).
How these teams got here
New Jersey's record is ordinary. Its underlying numbers aren't. The Devils average 35.7 shots per game and allow 26.0, a gap of nearly 10 shots every night. They are 4-2-0 at home and have scored 11 goals in their last two games at the Rock. That run includes a 7-1 rout of the Rangers last week. They come in off a 4-3 win over Colorado on Tuesday: Jake Allen made 31 saves, and Declan Chisholm scored his first goal as a Devil.
Anaheim is sliding. The Ducks have lost four in a row. They fell 5-2 at Madison Square Garden on Monday, then 3-2 to the Islanders on Tuesday after trailing 3-1 at the first intermission. They average 24.1 shots and allow 26.6, so they are getting outshot most nights. Oddly, they've been better away from home (3-2-0) than in Anaheim (1-3-0).
Both teams played Tuesday, so rest is even.
New Jersey's depth vs. Leo Carlsson
Jack Hughes leads the Devils with 9 points (2 goals, 7 assists), and Jesper Bratt has 7. The goals are coming from the middle and the right side. Nico Hischier and Arseny Gritsyuk have 4 apiece, and Gritsyuk has scored in three straight games. Luke Evangelista is back from an illness and has 5 points in 6 games.
Anaheim's offense runs through Leo Carlsson: 11 points, 9 of them assists. Beckett Sennecke leads the team with 5 goals, and Mikael Granlund has 8 points. The Ducks' power play is the threat at 22.6%. That matters, because New Jersey's penalty kill is a leaky 70.8%.
In goal, neither side is lighting it up. Lukas Dostál is projected for Anaheim (3-4-0, 3.16 GAA, .881). New Jersey hasn't named a starter. Allen has started six of nine (4-2-0, 3.15, .884), and Nico Daws has started three (1-2-0, 3.38, .857). With matching goaltending, the volume edge decides it, and that edge is New Jersey's.
Injury picture
The Ducks are missing Troy Terry (hip, IR), a top-six winger, plus center Ryan Poehling and defenseman Ian Moore, both on IR with lower-body injuries. That thins the forward group behind Carlsson and Granlund.
New Jersey is without center Nick Bjugstad (torn pectoral, out until January) and defenseman Seamus Casey (knee, IR). Connor Brown returned from a lower-body injury this week, which gives the Devils' bottom six more depth than they had a week ago.
Prediction: Devils moneyline
Devils moneyline (-200). Our model gives New Jersey a 77% chance to win, at medium confidence. The licensed books' -196 to -200 implies about 66-67%. Why we agree:
- Shot share: 35.7 shots for vs. 26.0 against. Anaheim is getting outshot (24.1 vs. 26.6).
- Form: the Ducks are on a four-game skid, with losses at the Rangers and Islanders this week.
- Home ice: New Jersey is 4-2-0 at home, with 11 goals in its last two home games.
- Depth: Anaheim is without Terry and Poehling, and Gritsyuk is scoring in three straight for New Jersey.
The risk is special teams. A 70.8% Devils penalty kill against a 22.6% Ducks power play is how a -200 favorite loses. Stay out of the box and New Jersey should control this.
On the total, 6.5 is priced at -110 both ways, with both projected goalies under .885. We lean over, but the pick is the side.
