Analysis
Maple Leafs vs Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 22, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Rangers at 60%, but at low confidence and a pick'em price (-108 to -112 both ways).
- Rangers are 6-0-0 at home but 1-3-1 on the road, with two goals in their last three road games.
- Toronto's penalty kill leads the NHL at 97.4%; rookie Dylan Garand counters with a .929 save percentage.
The New York Rangers (7-3-1) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (5-4-2) on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena (MSG in the US, TSN4 in Canada). The moneyline is a coin flip at -108 to -112 on both sides, and the total sits at 6.5. The tension: a Rangers team that is perfect at home and 1-3-1 on the road, with rookie Dylan Garand in net after Igor Shesterkin's season-ending knee injury. SportsHub call: no edge.
Two teams, two different identities
New York has been two teams. The Rangers are 6-0-0 at Madison Square Garden, their best home start since 1990-91, per Field Level Media. Away from home they are 1-3-1, with only two goals in their last three road games, a stretch that includes a 7-1 loss in New Jersey last week. They come in off a 5-2 home win over Anaheim on Monday.
The overall profile is still strong. New York allows 2.18 goals per game and scores 3.00. That gap of nearly a goal a night drives the standings: the Rangers sit first in the Metropolitan with 15 points.
Toronto has been streakier. The Leafs dropped three straight last week, then won two in a row, capped by a 6-2 win at Columbus on Tuesday. They score 3.45 goals per game, but they give up 3.09 and allow over 30 shots a night. Toronto played Tuesday and New York on Monday, so both teams come in rested.
Matthews and an elite penalty kill vs. a rookie goalie
Auston Matthews is rolling: 8 goals and 18 points in 11 games. William Nylander adds 15 points, and Kirill Marchenko and Easton Cowan have 11 and 10. Toronto's power play converts 27.5%.
The bigger story is the Toronto penalty kill: 97.4%, best in the league through 11 games. The Leafs went 6-for-6 on the kill on Tuesday, and Cowan scored short-handed. New York's power play runs at 20.6%. That gives the Rangers little help on the man advantage.
New York counters with Alexis Lafrenière (7 goals, 13 points), Adam Fox (10 assists) and Mika Zibanejad (9 points). Garand is projected for his sixth straight start: 4-2-1, 1.85 GAA, .929 save percentage. He stopped 29 of 31 shots against Anaheim. The Rangers' own penalty kill is excellent too, at 94.1%.
Toronto hasn't confirmed its starter. Sergei Bobrovsky has made seven starts (2.96 GAA, .902), and Anthony Stolarz has made four (3-1-0, 2.99, .898). Either way, Toronto has the weaker number in net tonight.
Who's missing
The Rangers' crease is thin. Shesterkin (knee) is out for the season and Joonas Korpisalo is on injured reserve, which leaves Garand and Spencer Martin. Martin allowed five goals per 60 minutes in his one appearance.
Toronto is short down the middle and on the blue line. John Tavares (lower body, 7 points in 7 games) is on IR. Chris Tanev (upper body) is on IR as well. Jake McCabe is day-to-day after taking a stick to the face in Columbus, and the team hopes he can play. If McCabe sits, Toronto's top four on defense is thin, though the Rangers are only shooting 24.2 times a game.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Rangers vs. Maple Leafs. Our model makes New York the winner at 60%, against roughly 52% implied by the market. But its confidence is low, and the data pulls both ways:
- Rangers' defense: 2.18 goals allowed per game, and Garand at .929.
- Rangers on the road: 1-3-1, with two goals in the last three road games.
- Toronto's special teams: a 97.4% penalty kill and a 27.5% power play, both edges at home.
- Head to head: Toronto has won four of the last five meetings.
The swing factor is Garand: a rookie with seven appearances this season, carrying a .929 against a Toronto attack where Matthews and Nylander have 33 points between them.
On the total, 6.5 is shaded to the under (-114 to -115). With both penalty kills above 94%, under is the side we'd lean, but not enough to play it.
