Analysis
Penguins vs Panthers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 22, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model makes Florida a 63% favorite, but a back-to-back and a possible NHL debut in goal leave this near the coin flip the books are pricing.
- Pittsburgh has lost four straight in regulation and allowed 21 goals in that stretch, with a 3.7 goals-against average.
- Florida lost 5-1 in Ottawa on Wednesday and is without Barkov, Marchand and goalie Jacob Markstrom.
- Florida leads the NHL with 60 penalties; Pittsburgh's power play converts 23.3%.
The Florida Panthers (5-3-2) visit the Pittsburgh Penguins (3-6-1) on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET at PPG Paints Arena (SportsNet Pittsburgh, Scripps Sports, ESPN+). The books call it a coin flip: Pittsburgh -112 to -115, Florida -105 to -106, total 6.5 to 7. Our model makes Florida a 63% favorite, but the Panthers are on the second night of a back-to-back and could start a goalie making his NHL debut. No edge.
How these teams got here
Pittsburgh's start has gone sideways fast. After opening 2-0 with a 7-0 rout in Philadelphia, the Penguins are 1-5-1 in their last seven, and the last four were regulation losses on a western trip: 5-3 in Chicago, 5-2 in Colorado, 6-2 in Vegas and 5-4 in Utah. That's 21 goals allowed in four games. They're 2-1-0 at home and have been off since Monday.
Florida has been steadier, if not dominant. The Panthers won three straight, including an 8-3 romp over Seattle, before Wednesday's 5-1 loss in Ottawa, where Akira Schmid stopped 25 of 30 shots. By the official numbers Florida scores 3.1 goals a game and allows 3.0; Pittsburgh scores 3.2 and allows 3.7.
The schedule is the first thing that jumps out. Pittsburgh is rested. Florida flew in after a game the night before.
The crease is the whole story
Florida lost Jacob Markstrom (3-1-1, 2.21 GAA, .897) to an upper-body injury in practice on Monday, and coach Paul Maurice expects him to miss 10 to 14 days. Schmid (.867, 3.62 GAA) went Wednesday. Maurice has said Cooper Black, recalled from AHL Charlotte, could get his first NHL start as soon as Thursday. Black is 25 and 6-foot-8, and he went 25-13-4 with a .903 in Charlotte last season. As of Thursday morning, Florida hadn't confirmed its starter.
Pittsburgh's goaltending hasn't been much better. Arturs Silovs is 3-3-0, 3.51, .866 and Sergei Murashov is 0-3-1, 3.50, .883. Neither team stops the puck well right now. Team save percentages sit at .867 for Pittsburgh and .878 for Florida.
That's why the skaters matter. Florida's offense runs through the Tkachuk brothers: Matthew has 15 points (3 goals, 12 assists) and Brady leads the club with 7 goals. Seth Jones has 10 assists from the back end. Pittsburgh leans on Erik Karlsson (11 points), Evgeni Malkin (5 goals) and Sidney Crosby (6 points).
Florida also controls the shot clock better, allowing 24.6 shots a game to Pittsburgh's 27.8.
Who's missing, and why it matters
Florida plays without Aleksander Barkov (lower body) and Brad Marchand (leg), both on injured reserve with return estimates in late November, plus Markstrom. That's its top center, a top-six winger and its No. 1 goalie, all out on the second night of a back-to-back.
Pittsburgh has holes too. Rookie center Ben Kindel is out, and defensemen Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk are on IR. Bryan Rust (lower body) and Samuel Girard (undisclosed) are day-to-day. Girard has 7 points, and losing him would thin a blue line that's already the weak spot.
Discipline is the other swing. ESPN has Florida with 60 penalties, the most in the league. Pittsburgh's power play converts 23.3%, better than Florida's 20.8%. If the Panthers keep parading to the box, that is the Penguins' clearest path.
Prediction: no edge
The model's 63% for Florida sits well above the roughly 50% the moneyline implies, but we can't sign off on it here:
- Rest: Pittsburgh has been off since Monday; Florida played Wednesday in Ottawa.
- Goalie uncertainty: Florida's likely options are Schmid at .867 on no rest or Black in his NHL debut.
- Lineup: Barkov, Marchand and Markstrom are all out for Florida.
- But Pittsburgh is leaking: 21 goals allowed in four straight regulation losses and a 3.7 goals-against average.
- Shot control: Florida's 24.6 shots allowed per game is the best number on the board for either side.
Those factors cancel out, which is why the price sits near even. The swing factor is the Florida starter, which should be clearer after the morning skate.
On the total, both teams' goaltending is under .880 and Florida takes penalties at a league-high rate, so the over makes sense. But books already charge -135 to -147 for over 6.5, and some have moved to 7. The value is gone, so we're passing.
