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Analysis
Canucks vs Flyers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 9, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Philadelphia at 57%, but only at low confidence and barely above the market's ~55% (-133 to -141).
- Vancouver has lost five straight, is 1-7-0 at home and allows a league-worst 4.58 goals per game.
- Philadelphia scores just 2.21 goals per game (31st) and is on a back-to-back after an OT loss in Calgary.
- Neither starter is confirmed; Lankinen's .808 save percentage vs Meriläinen's .889 is the biggest swing.
The Philadelphia Flyers (4-10-5) visit the Vancouver Canucks (3-15-1) at Rogers Arena on Monday, Nov. 9, at 9:30 p.m. ET (NBC Sports Philadelphia, Sportsnet+). Licensed books have Philadelphia between -133 and -141, with Vancouver at +112 to +118. The hook is the schedule: the Flyers played 64 minutes in Calgary on Sunday night, while the Canucks bring the league's worst goal differential. Our call: no edge. The model leans Philadelphia, but only at low confidence.
How these teams got here
Vancouver is last in the NHL with 7 points in 19 games. It has lost five straight and is 1-9-0 in its last 10. The latest losses were 4-2 in Edmonton on Saturday and 6-2 in Winnipeg on Thursday, and home ice hasn't helped either: the Canucks are 1-7-0 at Rogers Arena. Their -32 goal differential (55 for, 87 against) is the worst in the league.
Philadelphia isn't much better on paper at 13 points, but its losses are closer: it's 4-4-2 in its last 10 and has five overtime losses on the season. On Sunday it outshot Calgary 35-26 and still lost 4-3 in overtime, so tonight is the second half of a back-to-back after a long night. The road record is just 1-6-2.
Vancouver's leaky defense vs. Philadelphia's quiet offense
This game pits a team that can't keep pucks out against a team that can't put them in.
Vancouver allows 4.58 goals per game and 31.2 shots per game, both last in the NHL. Its penalty kill is 63.5%, 31st. The Canucks also generate the fewest shots in the league (21.8 per game), so they spend long stretches defending.
Philadelphia scores just 2.21 goals per game, 31st, and its power play is 27th at 17.2%. Matvei Michkov is the one finisher who stands out, with 10 goals, five on the power play, so the Flyers' power play against that 63.5% kill is the clearest mismatch on the board. Trevor Zegras leads the team with 14 points.
For Vancouver, Elias Pettersson runs the offense with 19 points (4 G, 15 A), and Brock Boeser leads the team with 7 goals.
Goaltending is the swing factor
Neither team had confirmed its starter at publish time.
Daily Faceoff's early projection listed Dan Vladar for Philadelphia and Kevin Lankinen for Vancouver, both unconfirmed. Vladar played all 64 minutes in Calgary on Sunday (22 saves on 26 shots), which makes Joseph Woll a real option on the back end of a back-to-back. Woll is 1-6-2 with a .899 save percentage and a 3.12 GAA, and Vladar is 3-4-3, .880, 3.27.
Vancouver's choice matters even more. Lankinen is 1-8-0 with a .808 save percentage and a 6.03 GAA. Leevi Meriläinen has been steadier at .889 and 3.52 in 11 starts, and he played Saturday in Edmonton. The gap between those two lines is the biggest number in this game.
The Canucks are also thin. Thatcher Demko (hip) is on injured reserve, and the club hopes he's back before Christmas, per NHL.com. Filip Chytil (upper body) is on IR, and defenseman Tom Willander is day-to-day after missing Saturday's game. Philadelphia is without defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen (hand, IR) and winger Nikita Grebenkin (back surgery, IR).
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Philadelphia is the right side on paper, but there's no bet here:
- The model is only at low confidence. It gives the Flyers 57%, against roughly 55% no-vig at -133 to -141. That gap is too thin to back.
- The Flyers' offense limits their upside. At 2.21 goals per game, Philadelphia rarely builds the cushion a -1.5 puck line needs.
- The schedule cuts against Philadelphia. It's on the second night of a back-to-back after overtime in Calgary, while Vancouver has had a day off.
- Goaltending is still unknown. Lankinen at .808 and Meriläinen at .889 are very different bets, and the price could move once Vancouver names its starter.
Swing factor: Philadelphia's power play. If the Flyers draw penalties, Michkov against a 63.5% kill could decide this early.
On the total: books sit at 6.5 with the under juiced, and two have 6. Vancouver's games average 7.5 goals and Philadelphia's average 5.6, so the two profiles cancel out. We'd pass there too.
